Match Info

Serie C - Group B - Round 23

Date: 25 January 2026, Sunday

Location: Stadio Cino e Lillo Del Duca (Ascoli Piceno)

Where to Watch on TV:


Italy	NOW TV, SKY Go Italia, Sky Sport 253


	Ascoli		Perugia

	1	X	2
				Watch
	2.02	3.05	3.7	Watch
	2.04	3.14	3.87
	2.02	3.05	3.8	Watch
	1.91	2.9	3.9
	2.01	2.96	3.85	Watch
	2.05	3.1	3.75
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.01 ↑ (1.69)	3.03 ↓ (3.44)	3.81 ↓ (4.91)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 6.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ascoli
45.7%

Draw
30.2%

Perugia
24.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

54.5%

26.8%

18.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

53.4%

26.2%

19.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ascoli has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Ascoli's form might have worsened.

Perugia has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.3%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Perugia's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ascoli than the current prediction. (+7.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Ascoli, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Perugia than the current prediction. (-4.9%)

Ascoli - Perugia Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Ascoli (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Vitale S. (G) 23. Alagna M. 30. Curado M. 3. Nicoletti M. 17. Guiebre A. 4. Damiani S. 62. Milanese T. 11. Oviszach E. 14. Galuppini F. 15. D'Uffizi S. 35. Gori G.	1. Gemello L. (G) 32. Megelaitis L. 28. Riccardi D. 13. Stramaccioni D. 31. Tozzuolo A. 4. Joselito 16. Bartolomei P. 20. Tumbarello G. 15. Dell'Orco C. 90. Nepi A. 11. Bacchin L.
Substitutes
24. Bando A. 46. Barosi D. (G) 41. Brzan R. (G) 9. Chakir M. A. 18. Corazza S. 80. Corradini G. 27. Cozzoli F. 6. Ndoj E. 2. Pagliai G. 28. Palazzino F. 33. Rizzo N. 25. Rizzo Pinna A. 7. Silipo A.	5. Angella G. 98. Bolsius D. 19. Dottori C. 6. Giunti G. 23. Lisi F. 77. Manzari G. 10. Matos 12. Moro L. (G) 78. Napolano V. 18. Perugini M. 71. Rondolini P. 17. Terrnava D. 22. Vinti L. (G)

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
22', Gori G. 🟨,
33', 1 - 0, D'Uffizi S. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Bacchin L. ↓, Manzari G. ↑,
46', Bartolomei P. ↓, Giunti G. ↑,
46', Stramaccioni D. ↓, Bolsius D. ↑,
55', 1 - 1, Manzari G. ⚽,
66', Manzari G. 🟨,
69', Milanese T. ↓, Corradini G. ↑,
69', Oviszach E. ↓, Silipo A. ↑,
69', Galuppini F. ↓, Rizzo Pinna A. ↑,
71', Gemello L. 🟨,
79', Nepi A. ↓, Matos ↑,
80', Guiebre A. ↓, Pagliai G. ↑,
80', Gori G. ↓, Chakir M. A. ↑,
90+2', 2 - 1, Rizzo Pinna A. ⚽,

Preview

A leader and an outsider will face off in this match (ranked 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie C ~ Promotion ~ Play Offs (1/8~finals) and 17 in the zone Serie C ~ Play Out).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Ascoli won 2.

Both teams have been playing unpredictably.

Perugia may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Ascoli could have a small edge in this match.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Ascoli won 5 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 11 matches, and goals 18:27. (average 0.9:1.4).

Including home matches between the teams, Ascoli won 2 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 7:15. (average 0.7:1.5).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
6	Perugia	8	4	1	3	9:12	-3	13

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Ascoli Calcio
Italian Serie C Group B
17.01.26	Juventus U23 - Ascoli	1:0 ✺
09.01.26	Ascoli - Ternana	1:0 ✺
03.01.26	Pianese - Ascoli	4:2 ✺
21.12.25	Ascoli - Campobasso	0:0 ✺
14.12.25	Guidonia Montecelio - Ascoli	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.1 LWLTT
- Perugia Calcio
Italian Serie C Group B
18.01.26	Perugia - Gubbio	0:1 ✺
11.01.26	Perugia - Bra	1:1 ✺
04.01.26	Guidonia Montecelio - Perugia	1:2 ✺
21.12.25	Perugia - Forlì	4:0 ✺
13.12.25	Campobasso - Perugia	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.6 LTWWL

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie C Group B
14.09.25	Perugia - Ascoli	0:2
03.03.25	Perugia - Ascoli	2:1
19.10.24	Ascoli - Perugia	0:1
Italian Serie B
11.02.23	Ascoli - Perugia	1:0
10.09.22	Perugia - Ascoli	1:0
05.02.22	Ascoli - Perugia	0:1
28.08.21	Perugia - Ascoli	2:3

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