Match Info

Champions League - Qualification - Semi-finals

Date: 11 August 2026, Tuesday

Location: Bank Respublika Arena (Masazır)

Referee: Delajod W. (Fra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Azerbaijan	Ictimai TV
Denmark	TV3+, Viaplay
Serbia	Arena Premium 4
Usa	SportsEngine Play


	Sabah		AGF Aarhus

	1	X	2
	1.90	3.70	3.80	Watch
	1.98	3.60	3.60
	1.94	3.85	3.60	Watch
	1.94	3.65	3.78
	1.91	3.77	3.81	Watch
	1.88	3.65	3.90
	1.91	3.72	3.83	Watch
	1.95	3.65	3.65
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.93 ↓ (2.3)	3.7 ↑ (3.36)	3.75 ↑ (3.07)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 5.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Sabah
49.1%

Draw
25.6%

AGF Aarhus
25.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

41%

28.2%

30.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

41.9%

27.6%

30.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Sabah has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Sabah's performance.

AGF Aarhus has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.5%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and AGF Aarhus might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Sabah than the current prediction. (-7.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Sabah that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for AGF Aarhus than the current prediction. (+4.8%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
65.4%	15.4%	19.2%

Sabah - AGF Aarhus Predictions

Users Predictions: 24 users predict this event. Sabah will win (votes: 17 - 70.8%). Aarhus will win (votes: 5 - 20.8%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 8.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Sabah: 52.6% – 89%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Aarhus (votes: 1 - 50%). Tie (votes: 1 - 50%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
92. Pokatilov S. (C) 80. Zedadka A. 3. Solvet S. 5. Dashdamirov R. 27. Puchacz T. 7. Rakhmonaliyev U. 13. Lepinjica I. 21. Simic V. 10. Isayev A. 20. Mickels J. 99. Mbina O.	21. Hedenstad M. (G) 26. Andersen J. 25. Rosler C. 19. Kahl E. 29. Carstensen R. 16. Jonsson J. 4. Knudsen M. 10. Arnstad K. (C) 11. Links G. 31. Bech T. 28. Bogere J.
Substitutes
88. Fernandes R. 6. Khaybulaev A. 23. Lachaab Y. 4. McCarthy A. 94. Mirzammadov R. (G) 17. Mutallimov T. 8. Nwachukwu C. 11. Parris K. 1. Ramazanov A. (G) 16. Rustamli R. 33. Santos Junior E. A. 34. Severina X.	23. Anderson M. 44. Camara M. 39. Emmery F. 1. Hansen J. (G) 8. Jorgensen S. 20. Kristjansson T. 14. Molgaard T. 13. Serra J. 7. Solbakken M. 45. Storch C. 27. Tchamche S. 42. van der Raad M. (G)
Coaches
Dambrauskas V.	Poulsen J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
8', Carstensen R. 🟨,
32', Andersen J. 🟨,
2nd Half (4 - 0)
58', Mbina O. ↓, Severina X. ↑,
59', 1 - 0, Simic V. ⚽, Mickels J. (A),
64', Links G. ↓, Emmery F. ↑,
65', Carstensen R. ↓, Anderson M. ↑,
66', Kahl E. 🟨,
67', 2 - 0, Solvet S. ⚽, Isayev A. (A),
72', Knudsen M. ↓, Serra J. ↑,
78', 3 - 0, Mickels J. ⚽,
81', Rosler C. ↓, Camara M. ↑,
82', Jonsson J. ↓, Jorgensen S. ↑,
82', Isayev A. ↓, Nwachukwu C. ↑,
89', 4 - 0, Severina X. ⚽, Zedadka A. (A),
90+3', Mickels J. ↓, Fernandes R. ↑,
90+3', Lepinjica I. ↓, Khaybulaev A. ↑,
90+4', Zedadka A. ↓, Mutallimov T. ↑,

Preview

First leg result: 1-2.

Sabah is showing really good form (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Aarhus has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Aarhus may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Sabah is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Sabah won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 1:2.

Outrights of UEFA Champions League for now

Sabah Baku: 0.2%

Standings

League phase

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
34	Sabah Baku	1	0	0	1	0:4	-4	0

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Sabah Baku FK
UEFA Champions League
05.08.26	AGF Aarhus - Sabah	2:1 ✺
28.07.26	KuPS Kuopio - Sabah	0:2 ✺
21.07.26	Sabah - KuPS Kuopio	1:0 ✺
14.07.26	The New Saints - Sabah	1:2 ✺
07.07.26	Sabah - The New Saints	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.5 LWWWW
- AGF Aarhus
UEFA Champions League
05.08.26	AGF Aarhus - Sabah	2:1 ✺
Danish Superliga
01.08.26	Lyngby BK - AGF Aarhus	2:2 ✺
UEFA Champions League
29.07.26	Lech Poznań - AGF Aarhus	1:5 penalties ✺
Danish Superliga
25.07.26	AGF Aarhus - Brøndby	1:1 ✺
UEFA Champions League
21.07.26	AGF Aarhus - Lech Poznań	1:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.6 WTWTL

Latest Head to Head

UEFA Champions League
05.08.26	AGF Aarhus - Sabah	2:1

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