Match Info

USL Championship

Date: 20 June 2026, Saturday

Location: Heart Health Park (Sacramento, CA)

Referee: Bensalah N. (Usa)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	Disney+
Brazil	Disney+
Chile	Disney+
Colombia	Disney+
Mexico	Disney+
North-central-america	Disney+ Caribbean
Peru	Disney+
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	CBS Sports Network, ESPN App, ESPN+, NESN Plus
Venezuela	Disney+


	Sacramento Republic		New Mexico United

	1	X	2
				Watch
	1.68	3.50	4.20
	1.65	3.65	4.75
	1.68	3.94	5.27
	1.69	3.9	4.54	Watch
	1.62	3.5	4.8
	1.67	3.73	4.92	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.67 ↓ (1.71)	3.7 ↓ (3.81)	4.75 ↑ (4.34)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 3.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Sacramento Republic
55.5%

Draw
25%

New Mexico United
19.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

54.3%

24.4%

21.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

55.3%

24%

21%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Sacramento Republic has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.2%)

New Mexico United has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Sacramento Republic than the current prediction. (-0.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for New Mexico United than the current prediction. (+1.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

Sacramento Republic - New Mexico United Predictions

Users Predictions: Sacramento Republic will win (5 of 5 users predict this - 100%).
Confidence interval (95%): 100% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Vitiello D. (G) 2. Gurr J. 5. Timmer J. 4. Desmond L. (C) 22. Benitez M. 18. Kaye M. 27. Crisostomo D. 20. Willey B. 8. Rodriguez M. 3. Spaulding R. 11. Ajago F.	13. Shakes K. (G) 27. Howell M. 4. Keller K. 2. Hamalainen N. 3. Gloster C. 15. Jabang O. 6. Zelalem G. 11. Nava C. 19. Bailey Z. 5. Harris D. 10. Hurst G. (C)
Substitutes
24. Casas J. 71. Edwards K. 15. Essel A. 7. Malango M. 99. Moya J. (G) 10. Rodriguez A. 55. Ukaegbu C. 17. Wanner D. 16. Wolff T.	29. Archimede L. 56. Arozarena R. (G) 24. Blackett T. 9. Rennicks J. 16. Seymore W. 8. Vargas M. 28. Wilkerson C.
Coaches
Collins N.	Sanchez D.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
11', Ajago F. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Zelalem G. ↓, Rennicks J. ↑,
46', Ajago F. ↓, Malango M. ↑,
72', Nava C. ↓, Blackett T. ↑,
73', 0 - 1, Harris D. ⚽, Jabang O. (A),
74', Kaye M. ↓, Rodriguez A. ↑,
74', Willey B. ↓, Edwards K. ↑,
74', Spaulding R. ↓, Essel A. ↑,
78', Hurst G. ↓, Seymore W. ↑,
78', Harris D. ↓, Archimede L. ↑,
80', Bailey Z. 🟨,
82', Crisostomo D. ↓, Casas J. ↑,
82', Howell M. ↓, Wilkerson C. ↑,
86', Timmer J. 🟨,
89', Archimede L. 🟨,

Preview

This time we’ll see a clash between two mid-table teams (ranked 6 in the zone Promotion ~ USL Championship (Play Offs: 1/8~finals) and 9).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Sacramento Republic won 4.

Both teams have been playing unpredictably.

Recently, Sacramento Republic has had a series of away games.

Recently, New Mexico has had a series of home games.

In this match, Sacramento Republic is considered a favorite.

In the last 13 head-to-head matches, Sacramento Republic won 8 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 20:11. (average 1.5:0.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Sacramento Republic won 5 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 12:4. (average 1.5:0.5).

Last Results with these Odds

Sacramento Republic - the odds 1.71 are the expected chance of winning is 54.26%, but this team recently wins 43% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Sacramento Republic FC
USL Championship
13.06.26	Colorado Springs Switchbacks - Sacramento Republic	0:1 ✺
USL Cup
06.06.26	Sacramento Republic - Monterey Bay	2:1 penalties ✺
USL Championship
30.05.26	Phoenix Rising - Sacramento Republic	2:0 ✺
23.05.26	San Antonio - Sacramento Republic	2:1 ✺
USL Cup
16.05.26	Oakland Roots - Sacramento Republic	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.1 WWLLW
- New Mexico United
USL Championship
13.06.26	New Mexico United - Orange County SC	1:1 ✺
USL Cup
06.06.26	New Mexico United - Phoenix Rising	4:0 ✺
USL Championship
30.05.26	Hartford Athletic - New Mexico United	0:0 ✺
23.05.26	New Mexico United - Charleston Battery	1:0 ✺
20.05.26	New Mexico United - Tampa Bay Rowdies	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.7 TWTWL

Latest Head to Head

USL Championship
30.08.25	New Mexico United - Sacramento Republic	0:2
08.03.25	Sacramento Republic - New Mexico United	2:1
29.09.24	Sacramento Republic - New Mexico United	4:0
18.09.24	New Mexico United - Sacramento Republic	3:1
21.10.23	Sacramento Republic - New Mexico United	1:0
20.09.23	Sacramento Republic - New Mexico United	0:0
22.07.23	New Mexico United - Sacramento Republic	3:0

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