Match Info

J1 League - Round 12

Date: 25 April 2025, Friday

Location: New National Stadium (Tokyo)

Where to Watch on TV:


China	QQ Sports
Japan	DAZN Japan


	Tokyo		Gamba Osaka

	1	X	2
	3.4	3.4	2.15	Watch
	3.1	3.1	2.35
	3.26	3.26	2.13
	3.52	3.46	2.17
	3.4	3.43	2.15	Watch
	3.1	3	2.3
	3.45	3.41	2.16	Watch
	3.3	3.3	2.15
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.32 ↑ (2.95)	3.3 ↑ (3.05)	2.2 ↓ (2.44)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 3.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Tokyo
28.4%

Draw
28.6%

Gamba Osaka
43%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

31.5%

30.5%

38.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

31.5%

30.5%

38.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Tokyo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.1%)

Gamba Osaka has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Tokyo than the current prediction. (+3.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Gamba Osaka than the current prediction. (-4.9%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
20%	80%	0%

Tokyo - Gamba Osaka Predictions

Users Predictions: 5 users predict this event. Tokyo will win (votes: 1 - 20%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 80%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Gamba Osaka (votes: 2 - 66.7%). Tie (votes: 1 - 33.3%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DC - Tokyo (1.58) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

AH -1 - Gamba Osaka (2.75) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 6 Selected Experts predict this event. Tokyo (votes: 2 - 33.3%). Gamba Osaka (votes: 3 - 50%). Tie (votes: 1 - 16.7%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
41. Nozawa T. (G) 32. Doi K. 30. Oka T. 7. Anzai S. 5. Nagatomo Y. 10. Higashi K. 37. Koizumi K. 22. Endo K. 16. Sato K. 53. Kitahara M. 19. Marcelo Ryan	22. Ichimori J. (G) 3. Handa R. 20. Nakatani S. 2. Fukuoka S. 4. Kurokawa K. 16. Suzuki T. 27. Mito R. 17. Yamashita R. 51. Mitsuta M. 47. Juan Alano 11. Jebali I.
Substitutes
18. Hashimoto K. 13. Hatano G. (G) 4. Kimoto Y. 8. Ko T. 39. Nakagawa T. 28. Nozawa L. 99. Shirai K. 33. Tawaratsumida K. 17. Terayama T.	1. Higashiguchi M. (G) 23. Hummet D. 15. Kishimoto T. 10. Kurata S. 8. Meshino R. 42. Minamino H. 5. Miura G. 33. Nakano S. 7. Usami T.
Coaches
Matsuhashi R.	Poyatos D.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
7', Oka T. 🟨,
2nd Half (3 - 0)
62', Higashi K. ↓, Ko T. ↑,
62', Nagatomo Y. ↓, Shirai K. ↑,
62', Kitahara M. ↓, Tawaratsumida K. ↑,
70', Endo K. ↓, Hashimoto K. ↑,
71', Juan Alano ↓, Usami T. ↑,
80', Mito R. ↓, Kurata S. ↑,
80', Yamashita R. ↓, Kishimoto T. ↑,
86', 1 - 0, Tawaratsumida K. ⚽, Koizumi K. (A),
89', Mitsuta M. ↓, Hummet D. ↑,
89', Koizumi K. ↓, Nozawa L. ↑,
90', 2 - 0, Ko T. ⚽, Hashimoto K. (A),
90+4', 3 - 0, Kishimoto T. (Own goal),

Preview

Neutral location - New National Stadium.

An autsider and a mid-table team will play in this game (ranked 18 in the zone Relegation ~ J2 League and 12).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Tokyo won 2.

The game of competitors is shaky now.

Recently Tokyo have a series of guest games.

The possibility to win in this match is almost balanced for both teams.

There will not play in Gamba Osaka: Welton (Ankle Injury)

Last 20 head-to-head matches Tokyo won 8 matches, drawn 5 matches, lost 7 matches and goals 20:19 (average 1:1).

Including matches at home between the teams Tokyo won 7 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 15:6 (average 1.5:0.6).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Tokyo
Japan J1 League
20.04.25	Cerezo Osaka - Tokyo	1:1 ✺
Japan J League Cup
16.04.25	Omiya Ardija - Tokyo	1:3 ET ✺
Japan J1 League
11.04.25	Tokyo - Kashiwa Reysol	1:1 ✺
06.04.25	Fagiano Okayama - Tokyo	1:0 ✺
02.04.25	Tokyo Verdy - Tokyo	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.7 TWTLT
- Gamba Osaka
Japan J1 League
20.04.25	Yokohama FC - Gamba Osaka	1:1 ✺
Japan J League Cup
16.04.25	Mito HollyHock - Gamba Osaka	0:1 ET ✺
Japan J1 League
12.04.25	Gamba Osaka - Nagoya Grampus	2:0 ✺
06.04.25	Kashiwa Reysol - Gamba Osaka	1:0 ✺
02.04.25	Gamba Osaka - Machida Zelvia	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.3 TWWLL

Latest Head to Head

Japan J1 League
07.08.24	Gamba Osaka - Tokyo	0:0
26.05.24	Tokyo - Gamba Osaka	0:1
01.10.23	Tokyo - Gamba Osaka	3:0
11.06.23	Gamba Osaka - Tokyo	3:1
Japan J League Cup
19.04.23	Tokyo - Gamba Osaka	1:0
05.04.23	Gamba Osaka - Tokyo	3:0
Japan J1 League
10.09.22	Gamba Osaka - Tokyo	0:0

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