Match Info

FRANCE: Ligue 1 - Round 7

Date: 5 October 2024, Saturday

Location: Stade Geoffroy-Guichard (Saint-Étienne)

Referee: Vernice M. (Fra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Andorra	beIN Sports 1
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 4, TOD
Austria	DAZN
Belgium	DAZN 1
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport 5, Moja TV
Canada	beIN Connect, beIN Sports
China	QQ Sports
Croatia	Arena Sport 5, MAXtv To Go
Cyprus	Cablenet Sports 2, Cablenet Sports 2
Czech-republic	Voyo
France	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 1, beIN Sports MENA French 1, beIN Sports MENA French 1, beIN Sports MENA French 1, Free
Georgia	Setanta Sport 3
Germany	DAZN 1 Deutsch
India	GXR World
Japan	DAZN Japan
Mexico	Caliente TV
Poland	Eleven Sports 4
Russia	Okko Sport
Serbia	Arena Sport 1x2
South-korea	Coupang Play
Spain	beIN Sports
Switzerland	DAZN Switzerland, Sunrise TV, Sunrise TV
Turkey	beIN Connect
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 3
United-kingdom	Ligue 1 Pass
Usa	beIN Connect, beIN Sports
World	Disney+, Fanatiz


	Saint-Étienne		Auxerre

	1	X	2
	3	3.5	2.3	Watch
	3	3.3	2.35
	3.05	3.45	2.32
	3.15	3.47	2.37
	3.11	3.42	2.37	Watch
	3	3.5	2.3
	3.1	3.73	2.36	Watch
	3.05	3.45	2.32
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.06 ↑ (2.53)	3.48 ↓ (3.52)	2.34 ↓ (2.71)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 1.4%, offered by

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Network on TV: beIN SPORTS

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Current Win Probability

Saint-Étienne
31.4%

Draw
27.6%

Auxerre
41.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

37.7%

27.1%

35.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

36.2%

28.2%

36.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Saint-Étienne has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Saint-Étienne's form might have worsened.

Auxerre has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.9%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Auxerre's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Saint-Étienne than the current prediction. (+4.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Auxerre than the current prediction. (-4.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
33.3%	29.2%	37.5%

Saint Étienne - Auxerre Predictions

Users Predictions: 24 users predict this event. Saint-Étienne will win (votes: 8 - 33.3%). Auxerre will win (votes: 9 - 37.5%). It will Tie (votes: 7 - 29.2%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Auxerre: 18.1% – 56.9%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
30. Larsonneur G. (G) 8. Appiah D. 21. Batubinsika D. 3. Nade M. 19. Petrot L. 29. Moueffek A. 4. Ekwah P. 37. Amougou M. 22. Davitashvili Z. 9. Sissoko I. 11. Old B.	16. Leon D. (G) 23. Hoever K. 20. Diomande S. 4. Jubal (C) 3. Osho G. 14. Mensah G. 42. Owusu E. 25. Traore H. J. 27. Danois K. 45. Onaiwu A. 17. Sinayoko L.
Substitutes
5. Abdelhamid Y. 20. Boakye A. 6. Bouchouari B. 18. Cafaro M. 26. Fomba L. 1. Maubleu B. (G) 14. Mouton L. 32. Stassin L. 10. Tardieu F.	92. Akpa C. 19. Aye F. 9. Bair T. 40. De Percin T. (G) 18. Diousse A. 26. Joly P. 5. Pellenard T. 10. Perrin G. 97. Raveloson R.
Coaches
Dall'Oglio O.	Pelissier C.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
15', 1 - 0, Davitashvili Z. ⚽, Petrot L. (A),
35', Owusu E. 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 1)
47', Nade M. 🟨,
54', 2 - 0, Davitashvili Z. ⚽, Sissoko I. (A),
60', Onaiwu A. ↓, Perrin G. ↑,
60', Osho G. ↓, Joly P. ↑,
60', Hoever K. ↓, Bair T. ↑,
67', Ekwah P. 🟨,
70', Old B. ↓, Cafaro M. ↑,
74', 2 - 1, Bair T. ⚽, Sinayoko L. (A),
79', Moueffek A. ↓, Mouton L. ↑,
79', Sissoko I. ↓, Stassin L. ↑,
79', Amougou M. ↓, Bouchouari B. ↑,
79', Petrot L. 🟨,
83', Sinayoko L. ↓, Aye F. ↑,
83', Owusu E. ↓, Raveloson R. ↑,
86', 3 - 1, Davitashvili Z. ⚽, Stassin L. (A),
88', Petrot L. ↓, Tardieu F. ↑,

Preview

The game between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 17 in the zone Relegation ~ Ligue 2 and 12).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Saint-Étienne won 1.

One and the other team are in an unacceptable form.

Auxerre could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

The chances to win of two teams are almost the same in this match.

There will not play in Saint-Étienne: Briancon A. (Knee Injury) Cornud P. (Muscle Injury) Macon Y. (Knee Injury) Monconduit T. (Thigh Injury) Wadji I. (Injury)

There will not play in Auxerre: Agouzoul S. (Injury) Coulibaly L. (Knee Injury) N'Gatta A. L. (Injury)

Last 6 head-to-head matches Saint-Étienne won 1 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 5:11 (average 0.8:1.8).

Including matches at home between the teams Saint-Étienne won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 2:2 (average 1:1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- AS Saint-Étienne
French Ligue 1
29.09.24	Nantes - Saint-Étienne	2:2 ✺
20.09.24	Nice - Saint-Étienne	8:0 ✺
13.09.24	Saint-Étienne - Lille	1:0 ✺
31.08.24	Brest - Saint-Étienne	4:0 ✺
24.08.24	Saint-Étienne - Le Havre	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14 TLWLL
- AJ Auxerre
French Ligue 1
27.09.24	Auxerre - Brest	3:0 ✺
22.09.24	Montpellier - Auxerre	3:2 ✺
14.09.24	Auxerre - Monaco	0:3 ✺
01.09.24	Le Havre - Auxerre	3:1 ✺
25.08.24	Nantes - Auxerre	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.3 WLLLL

Latest Head to Head

French Ligue 2
09.03.24	Saint-Étienne - Auxerre	1:0
11.11.23	Auxerre - Saint-Étienne	5:2
French Ligue 1
29.05.22	Saint-Étienne - Auxerre	1:2 penalties
26.05.22	Auxerre - Saint-Étienne	1:1
Coupe De France
01.02.17	Auxerre - Saint-Étienne	3:0 ET
French Ligue 1
25.02.12	Auxerre - Saint-Étienne	0:0

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