Match Info

Ligue 1 - Round 29

Date: 13 April 2025, Sunday

Location: Stade Geoffroy-Guichard (Saint-Étienne)

Referee: Kherradji A. (Fra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	CANAL+ Sport 2
Argentina	Disney+
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 4, TOD
Austria	DAZN
Belgium	DAZN 1
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport 6
Canada	beIN Connect, beIN Sports
Chile	Disney+
China	QQ Sports, ZhiBo8
Colombia	Disney+
Croatia	Arena Sport 7, MAXtv To Go
Cyprus	Cablenet Sports 2, Cablenet Sports 2
Denmark	Viaplay
Finland	Viaplay
France	DAZN 1, DAZN France
Georgia	Setanta Sports 2
Germany	DAZN 1 Deutsch
India	GXR World
Israel	5 SPORT Israel
Japan	DAZN Japan
Mexico	Caliente TV App, Caliente TV
Netherlands	Viaplay
North-central-america	Disney+ Caribbean
Norway	Viaplay
Peru	Disney+
Portugal	Sport TV5
Russia	Okko Sport
South-korea	Coupang Play
Spain	beIN Sports
Sweden	Viaplay
Switzerland	DAZN Switzerland, Sunrise TV, Sunrise TV
Turkey	beIN Connect
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 3
United-kingdom	Ligue 1 Pass
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	beIN Connect, beIN Sports, Fanatiz
Venezuela	Disney+
World	Disney+


	Saint-Étienne		Brest

	1	X	2
	3.5	3.7	2	Watch
	3.3	3.6	2.05
	3.45	3.7	2.02	Watch
	3.42	3.63	2.07	Watch
	3.3	3.4	2.05
	3.65	3.83	2.08	Watch
	3.45	3.7	2.02
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.44 ↑ (3.29)	3.65 ↑ (3.64)	2.04 ↓ (2.14)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 1.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Saint-Étienne
27.6%

Draw
26%

Brest
46.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

29.1%

26.3%

44.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

29.8%

26.9%

43.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Saint-Étienne has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.5%)

Brest has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Saint-Étienne than the current prediction. (+2.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Brest than the current prediction. (-2.8%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
38.9%	16.7%	44.4%

Saint Étienne - Brest Predictions

Users Predictions: 17 users predict this event. Saint-Étienne will win (votes: 7 - 41.2%). Brest will win (votes: 8 - 47.1%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 11.8%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Brest: 23.4% – 70.8%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Saint-Étienne (votes: 2 - 66.7%). Brest (votes: 1 - 33.3%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DC - draw (1.32) (votes: 0 - 0%) .

AH 0 - Brest (1.51) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 3 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 4 Selected Experts predict this event. Saint-Étienne (votes: 2 - 50%). Brest (votes: 2 - 50%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
30. Larsonneur G. (C) 8. Appiah D. 13. Bernauer M. 3. Nade M. 19. Petrot L. 4. Ekwah P. 6. Bouchouari B. 29. Moueffek A. 7. Cardona I. 32. Stassin L. 22. Davitashvili Z.	40. Bizot M. (G) 7. Lala K. 5. Chardonnet B. (C) 3. Ndiaye A. 22. Haidara M. 20. Lees-Melou P. 8. Magnetti H. 45. Camara M. 26. Pereira Lage M. 17. Sima A. 19. Ajorque L.
Substitutes
5. Abdelhamid Y. 21. Batubinsika D. 27. Macon Y. 1. Maubleu B. (G) 14. Mouton L. 63. N'Guessan D. 11. Old B. 10. Tardieu F. 25. Wadji I.	23. Amavi J. 14. Balde M. 30. Coudert G. (G) 10. Del Castillo R. 9. Doumbia K. 25. Le Cardinal J. 33. Makalou H. 28. Martin J. 12. Zogbe L.
Coaches
Horneland E.	Roy E.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 3)
6', 0 - 1, Ajorque L. ⚽, Pereira Lage M. (A),
16', 1 - 1, Stassin L. ⚽, Nade M. (A),
18', Moueffek A. 🟨,
25', 1 - 2, Sima A. ⚽, Lala K. (A),
34', 2 - 2, Cardona I. ⚽, Davitashvili Z. (A),
37', 2 - 3, Ajorque L. ⚽, Pereira Lage M. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 0)
60', Chardonnet B. 🟨,
63', Moueffek A. ↓, Tardieu F. ↑,
72', Larsonneur G. 🟨,
73', Ajorque L. ↓, Balde M. ↑,
73', Pereira Lage M. ↓, Doumbia K. ↑,
78', Lees-Melou P. 🟨,
80', 3 - 3, Cardona I. ⚽, Tardieu F. (A),
81', Sima A. ↓, Del Castillo R. ↑,
81', Magnetti H. ↓, Martin J. ↑,
83', Balde M. 🟨,
90+3', Bizot M. 🟨,

Preview

The game between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 17 in the zone Relegation ~ Ligue 2 and 8).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Saint-Étienne won 1.

Saint-Étienne is in awful shape (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Brest is in a first-class shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Brest could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

Brest will have a small advantage in this match.

There will not play in Saint-Étienne: Boakye A. (Ankle Injury) Cornud P. (Groin Injury)

There will not play in Brest: Bourgault J. (Foot Injury) Coulibaly S. (Injury) Faivre R. (Knee Injury) Locko B. (Achilles Tendon Injury) Salah I. (Foot Injury)

There are questionable in Saint-Étienne: Tardieu F. (Head Injury)

There are questionable in Brest: Fernandes E. (Knee Injury)

Last 10 head-to-head matches Saint-Étienne won 4 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 5 matches and goals 14:17 (average 1.4:1.7).

Including matches at home between the teams Saint-Étienne won 3 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 10:5 (average 2:1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- AS Saint-Étienne
French Ligue 1
09.04.25	Montpellier - Saint-Étienne	0:2 ✺
06.04.25	Lens - Saint-Étienne	1:0 ✺
29.03.25	Saint-Étienne - Paris Saint-Germain	1:6 ✺
09.03.25	Le Havre - Saint-Étienne	1:1 ✺
01.03.25	Saint-Étienne - Nice	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.9 WLLTL
- Stade Brestois 29
French Ligue 1
05.04.25	Brest - Monaco	2:1 ✺
30.03.25	Toulouse - Brest	2:4 ✺
16.03.25	Brest - Reims	0:0 ✺
09.03.25	Brest - Angers	2:0 ✺
02.03.25	Lyon - Brest	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16.8 WWTWL

Latest Head to Head

French Ligue 1
31.08.24	Brest - Saint-Étienne	4:0
16.04.22	Saint-Étienne - Brest	2:1
01.12.21	Brest - Saint-Étienne	1:0
24.04.21	Saint-Étienne - Brest	1:2
21.11.20	Brest - Saint-Étienne	4:1
16.02.20	Brest - Saint-Étienne	3:2
18.08.19	Saint-Étienne - Brest	1:1

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