Match Info

Ligue 2 - Round 12

Date: 28 October 2025, Tuesday

Location: Stade Geoffroy-Guichard (Saint-Étienne)

Referee: Taleb A. (Fra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Asia	beIN Sports MENA 4
Austria	DAZN 2, DAZN, Sky Go Austria
Canada	beIN Connect, beIN Sports, beIN Sports Espanol
Cyprus	Cablenet Sports 2, Cablenet Sports 2
Denmark	Viaplay
Finland	Viaplay
France	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 2, Free
Germany	Amazon Prime Video, DAZN 2 Bar Deutsch, Sky Go Germany
Japan	DAZN Japan
Netherlands	Viaplay
Norway	Viaplay
Sweden	Viaplay
Switzerland	DAZN Switzerland
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 11
Usa	beIN Connect, beIN Sports, beIN Sports US Espanol, Fanatiz


	Saint-Étienne		Pau

	1	X	2
	1.67	3.8	4.75	Watch
	1.68	3.8	4.45
	1.53	4.21	5.14	Watch
	1.68	3.92	4.6	Watch
	1.74	4	4.4
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.66 ↑ (1.58)	3.95 ↓ (4.2)	4.67 ↓ (4.94)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.50

The best margin for this event is 5.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Saint-Étienne
56.3%

Draw
23.7%

Pau
20%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

59%

22.2%

18.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

62%

23.3%

18%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Saint-Étienne has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.7%)

Pau has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Saint-Étienne than the current prediction. (+5.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Saint-Étienne, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Pau than the current prediction. (-2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
72.7%	13.6%	13.6%

Saint Étienne - Pau Predictions

Users Predictions: 21 users predict this event. Saint-Étienne will win (votes: 16 - 76.2%). Pau will win (votes: 3 - 14.3%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 9.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Saint-Étienne: 58% – 94.4%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 3 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

BTTS - yes (votes: 2 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Saint-Étienne will win (9 of 10 users predict this - 90%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
30. Larsonneur G. (C) 13. Ferreira J. 6. Bernauer M. 3. Nade M. 19. Annan E. 29. Moueffek A. 5. Jaber M. 10. Tardieu F. 20. Boakye A. 17. Duffus J. 7. Cardona I.	22. Raveyre N. (G) 2. Pouilly T. 23. Briancon A. (C) 4. Karamoko S. 3. Kalulu J. 97. Meddah D. 10. Versini G. 84. Touzghar R. 6. Fall C. 9. Dong K. 18. Sadik O.
Substitutes
8. Appiah D. 22. Davitashvili Z. 31. El Jamali N. 35. Gadegbeku L. 1. Maubleu B. (G) 11. Old B. 9. Stassin L.	14. Bobichon A. 26. Glossoa N. 34. Lebouath S. 7. Messi R. 30. Salles E. (G) 17. Sissoko O. 87. Zuliani E.
Coaches
Horneland E.	Usai N.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (4 - 0)
2', 1 - 0, Ferreira J. ⚽, Tardieu F. (A),
11', 2 - 0, Cardona I. ⚽, Duffus J. (A),
21', Fall C. 🟨,
30', Boakye A. 🟨,
41', 3 - 0, Tardieu F. (Pen),
44', 4 - 0, Duffus J. ⚽,
45+4', Cardona I. 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 0)
46', Versini G. ↓, Messi R. ↑,
46', Boakye A. ↓, Old B. ↑,
46', Dong K. ↓, Sissoko O. ↑,
46', Meddah D. ↓, Bobichon A. ↑,
48', 5 - 0, Duffus J. ⚽, Jaber M. (A),
55', Sadik O. ↓, Zuliani E. ↑,
55', Pouilly T. ↓, Glossoa N. ↑,
67', Cardona I. ↓, Davitashvili Z. ↑,
68', Moueffek A. ↓, El Jamali N. ↑,
72', Nade M. ↓, Appiah D. ↑,
72', Duffus J. ↓, Stassin L. ↑,
79', 6 - 0, Davitashvili Z. ⚽, Bernauer M. (A),
89', Karamoko S. 🟥,

Preview

The most interesting match of the day — two teams from the very top of the table will face off (ranked 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Ligue 1 (Promotion ~ Play Offs: Semi~finals) and 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Ligue 1 (Promotion ~ Play Offs: Final)).

In recent matches, Saint-Étienne has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Pau is in great form at the moment (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Saint-Étienne may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Saint-Étienne is the team to beat.

There will not play in Saint-Étienne: Ekwah P. (Inactive) Gadegbeku L. (Ankle Injury) Lamba C. (Inactive) Miladinovic I. (Red Card) Traore L. (Inactive)

There will not play in Pau: Beusnard S. (Injury) Briancon A. (Inactive) Gaspar J. (Inactive) Kante (Red Card) Ruiz J. (Inactive) Sadik O. (Inactive)

In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Saint-Étienne won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 6:4. (average 1.5:1).

Including home matches between the teams, Saint-Étienne won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 3:2. (average 1.5:1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- AS Saint-Étienne
French Ligue 2
25.10.25	Annecy - Saint-Étienne	4:0 ✺
18.10.25	Saint-Étienne - Le Mans	2:3 ✺
04.10.25	Montpellier - Saint-Étienne	0:2 ✺
27.09.25	Saint-Étienne - Guingamp	2:3 ✺
23.09.25	Amiens - Saint-Étienne	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.2 LLWLW
- Pau FC
French Ligue 2
24.10.25	Pau - Dunkerque	0:3 ✺
17.10.25	Grenoble - Pau	1:1 ✺
03.10.25	Pau - Clermont	3:1 ✺
26.09.25	Rodez - Pau	1:2 ✺
23.09.25	Pau - Laval	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.8 LTWWW

Latest Head to Head

French Ligue 2
23.01.24	Pau - Saint-Étienne	0:1
25.11.23	Saint-Étienne - Pau	1:2
25.02.23	Saint-Étienne - Pau	2:0
05.09.22	Pau - Saint-Étienne	2:2

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