Match Info

Ligue 2 - Round 10

Date: 18 October 2025, Saturday

Location: Stade Geoffroy-Guichard (Saint-Étienne)

Referee: Batta F. (Fra)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Saint-Étienne		Le Mans

	1	X	2
	1.6	4	4.75	Watch
	1.58	4.05	4.95
	1.62	4.18	5.28
	3.61	2.85	2.26	Watch
	1.6	4.06	5.07	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2 ↑ (1.58)	3.83 ↓ (4.09)	4.46 ↓ (5.27)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 4.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Saint-Étienne
50.7%

Draw
26.5%

Le Mans
22.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

59.4%

22.9%

17.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

61%

22.3%

17.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Saint-Étienne has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Saint-Étienne's form might have worsened.

Le Mans has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Le Mans's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Saint-Étienne than the current prediction. (+10.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Saint-Étienne, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Le Mans than the current prediction. (-5.6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Le Mans, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
70%	20%	10%

Saint Étienne - Le Mans Predictions

Users Predictions: 9 users predict this event. Saint-Étienne will win (votes: 7 - 77.8%). Le Mans will win (votes: 1 - 11.1%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 11.1%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Saint-Étienne: 50.6% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Le Mans (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
30. Larsonneur G. (C) 13. Ferreira J. 27. Macon Y. 3. Nade M. 19. Annan E. 28. Miladinovic I. 5. Jaber M. 10. Tardieu F. 20. Boakye A. 9. Stassin L. 22. Davitashvili Z.	98. Kocik N. (G) 5. Voyer H. 21. Eyoum T. 22. Calodat L. 17. Yohou S. 6. Quarshie E. (C) 18. Buades L. 8. Lauray A. 9. Rabillard A. 24. Robin M. 25. Gueye D.
Substitutes
7. Cardona I. 17. Duffus J. 31. El Jamali N. 1. Maubleu B. (G) 29. Moueffek A. 11. Old B. 2. Stojkovic S.	28. Colas E. 3. Cossier I. 7. Gomes M. 20. Harhouz W. 1. Hatfout E. (G) 26. Oggad B. 27. Rossignol M.
Coaches
Horneland E.	Videira P.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
15', Jaber M. 🟨,
21', 0 - 1, Rabillard A. ⚽, Gueye D. (A),
27', Lauray A. 🟨,
28', 1 - 1, Tardieu F. ⚽,
32', Yohou S. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 2)
55', 1 - 2, Gueye D. (Pen),
62', Gueye D. ↓, Harhouz W. ↑,
62', Rabillard A. ↓, Colas E. ↑,
68', Macon Y. ↓, Stojkovic S. ↑,
68', Davitashvili Z. ↓, Cardona I. ↑,
68', Jaber M. ↓, Moueffek A. ↑,
68', 1 - 3, Harhouz W. ⚽, Calodat L. (A),
72', Robin M. 🟨,
78', Robin M. ↓, Rossignol M. ↑,
78', Quarshie E. ↓, Gomes M. ↑,
80', 2 - 3, Tardieu F. (Pen),
81', Cardona I. 🟨,
81', 🟨,
89', Buades L. ↓, Oggad B. ↑,

Preview

Get ready for a battle between the top and the middle of the table (ranked 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Ligue 1 (Promotion ~ Play Offs: Final) and 12).

Saint-Étienne is showing really good form (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Le Mans has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Le Mans may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Saint-Étienne is considered a favorite.

There will not play in Saint-Étienne: Bernauer M. (Red Card) Ekwah P. (Inactive) Gadegbeku L. (Ankle Injury) N'Guessan D. (International duty) Traore L. (Inactive)

There will not play in Le Mans: Abanda L. (Inactive) Cisse A. (Inactive) Colas E. (Injury) Delbecque A. (Inactive) Luvambo T. (Inactive) Ribelin A. (Inactive) Rossignol M. (Injury)

We predict that Saint-Étienne will win today's game, with odds of 1.56.

The teams have not played against each other recently.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- AS Saint-Étienne
French Ligue 2
04.10.25	Montpellier - Saint-Étienne	0:2 ✺
27.09.25	Saint-Étienne - Guingamp	2:3 ✺
23.09.25	Amiens - Saint-Étienne	0:1 ✺
20.09.25	Saint-Étienne - Reims	3:2 ✺
13.09.25	Clermont - Saint-Étienne	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.4 WLWWW
- Le Mans FC
French Ligue 2
03.10.25	Le Mans - Troyes	2:2 ✺
26.09.25	Clermont - Le Mans	1:1 ✺
23.09.25	Le Mans - Grenoble	1:0 ✺
19.09.25	Dunkerque - Le Mans	2:2 ✺
12.09.25	Le Mans - Rodez	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.2 TTWTL

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