Match Info

EUROPE: Europa League - Play Offs - 1/16-finals

Date: 13 February 2025, Thursday 🏁 Finished

Location: King Baudouin Stadium (Brussels) 🌤️ ...

Referee: Rumsas D. (Ltu)

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Africa	—	DStv Now, New World Sport App, SuperSport GOtv Football, SuperSport MaXimo 2, SuperSport Premier League
Albania	18:45	SuperSport 2
Argentina	14:45	ESPN 2
Armenia	21:45	Fast Sports 1, Fast Sports
Asia	—	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 3, TOD
Australia	04:45	Stan Sport
Austria	18:45	Sky Go Austria, Sky Sport Austria 3
Belgium	18:45	Play Sports 1, Play Sports 2, RTBF Tipik, VRT Canvas
Bosnia And Herzegovina	18:45	Arena Sport 2, Moja TV
Bulgaria	19:45	BTV Action, Voyo
Canada	12:45	DAZN Canada
China	01:45	ZhiBo8
Colombia	12:45	ESPN 2
Croatia	18:45	Arena Sport 7, MAXtv To Go
Cyprus	19:45	Cytavision on the Go, Cytavision Sports 4, Cytavision Sports 4
Czech Republic	18:45	Sport 1
Denmark	18:45	Disney+
Finland	19:45	Viaplay
France	18:45	Canal+ Live 3
Georgia	21:45	Setanta Sports 2, Silk Sport 2
Germany	18:45	RTL+
Greece	19:45	ANT 1+, COSMOTE Sport 7
Hong Kong	01:45	beIN Sports 1, Now Player
Hungary	18:45	RTL+
Iceland	17:45	Viaplay, Vodafone Sport
India	23:15	JioTV app, Sony LIV, Sony Sports TEN 1
Indonesia	00:45	beIN Connect, Vidio
Israel	19:45	Sport 1
Italy	18:45	NOW TV, SKY Go Italia, Sky Sport 253, Sky Sport Calcio
Japan	02:45	Wowow Live
Kazakhstan	23:45	Q Sport
Laos	00:45	beIN Connect
Malaysia	01:45	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 1, Sooka
Malta	18:45	GO TV, TSN Malta 8
Mexico	11:45	ESPN 4
Netherlands	18:45	Canal+, Sporza, Ziggo Sport
New Zealand	06:45	DAZN New Zealand
North Central America	—	RUSH Sports 1 Caribbean
North Macedonia	18:45	MaxTV GO
Norway	18:45	Viaplay
Philippines	01:45	beIN Connect
Poland	18:45	Polsat Sport Premium 4
Portugal	17:45	DAZN 3
Romania	19:45	Digi Online, Digi Sport 4, Orange TV Go, Prima Sport 3
Russia	20:45	Okko Sport
Serbia	18:45	Arena Sport 1
Singapore	01:45	beIN Sport 1, StarHub TV+
South Africa	19:45	SuperSport Premier League
South America	—	ESPN 2 South, ViX Latin America
South Korea	02:45	SPOTV Prime+
Spain	18:45	M+ Liga de Campeones 4
Sweden	18:45	Disney+
Switzerland	18:45	Blue Sport 1, Blue Sport 1
Thailand	00:45	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3
Turkey	20:45	Tabii
Ukraine	19:45	MEGOGO Futbol 5, MEGOGO Sport
United Kingdom	17:45	Discovery+ UK, TNT Sports 5
Usa	12:45	Paramount+
Vietnam	00:45	ON Plus
International	17:45	Disney+


	Saint-Gilloise		Ajax

	1	X	2
	2	3.4	3.8
	2.05	3.5	3.75	Watch
	2.04	3.48	3.91
	2.03	3.5	3.67
	2.05	3.3	3.6
	2.1	3.49	3.71
	2.05	3.5	3.75
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.05 ↓ (2.25)	3.45 ↓ (3.54)	3.74 ↑ (3.11)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 3.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Saint-Gilloise
46.7%

Draw
27.7%

Ajax
25.6%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

42.4%

27%

30.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

43.1%

26.6%

30.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Saint-Gilloise has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.3%)

Ajax has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Ajax might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Saint-Gilloise than the current prediction. (-3.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ajax than the current prediction. (+4.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
45.5%	29.5%	25%

Saint Gilloise - Ajax Predictions

Users Predictions: 43 users predict this event. Union SG will win (votes: 20 - 46.5%). Ajax will win (votes: 10 - 23.3%). It will Tie (votes: 13 - 30.2%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Union SG: 31.6% – 61.4%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
49. Moris A. (C) 25. Khalaili A. 5. Mac Allister K. 16. Burgess C. 48. Leysen F. 10. Ait El Hadj A. 24. Vanhoutte C. 27. Sadiki N. 9. Ivanovic F. 12. David P. 22. Niang O.	22. Pasveer R. (G) 2. Rosa L. 24. Rugani D. 15. Baas Y. 4. Hato J. 18. Klaassen D. (C) 31. Mokio J. 28. Fitz-Jim K. 23. Berghuis S. 29. Rasmussen C. 17. Edvardsen O.
Substitutes
31. Asaidi M. 32. Asri M. 33. Berradi S. 23. Boufal S. 1. Chambaere V. (G) 77. Fuseini M. 14. Imbrechts J. (G) 28. Machida K. 4. Rasmussen M. 13. Rodriguez K.	64. Bounida R. 9. Brobbey B. 3. Gaaei A. 11. Godts M. 12. Gorter J. (G) 36. Janse D. 13. Kaplan A. 51. Setford C. (G) 63. Steur S. 37. Sutalo J. 8. Taylor K. 20. Traore B.
Coaches
Meert B.	Farioli F.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (0 - 2)
46', Rugani D. ↓, Sutalo J. ↑,
59', 0 - 1, Rasmussen C. ⚽, Edvardsen O. (A),
62', Mokio J. 🟨,
62', Ait El Hadj A. ↓, Fuseini M. ↑,
62', David P. ↓, Rodriguez K. ↑,
71', 0 - 2, Mokio J. ⚽,
72', Rosa L. ↓, Gaaei A. ↑,
72', Fitz-Jim K. ↓, Taylor K. ↑,
79', Mac Allister K. 🟨,
83', Rasmussen C. ↓, Godts M. ↑,
83', Berghuis S. ↓, Traore B. ↑,
85', Vanhoutte C. ↓, Rasmussen M. ↑,

Preview

1st leg. Playing home matches at a different stadium - King Baudouin Stadium.

Right away both teams are in a satisfying form.

In this match the chances to win of both teams are almost equal.

There will not play in Union SG: Boufal S. (Injury) Castro-Montes A. (Injury) Sykes R. (Yellow Cards) Van De Perre K. (Muscle Injury)

There will not play in Ajax: Godts M. (Muscle Injury) Matheus (Inactive) Regeer Y. (Ankle Injury) Weghorst W. (Toe Injury) Wijndal O. (Knee Injury) van Axel Dongen A. (Ankle Injury)

Recently, the teams did not play each other.

Last Results with these Odds

Saint-Gilloise - the odds 2.25 are the expected chance of winning is 42.37%, but this team recently wins 50% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Royale Union Saint-Gilloise
Belgian Jupiler Pro League
09.02.25	Kortrijk - Saint-Gilloise	1:2 ✺
02.02.25	Saint-Gilloise - Sint-Truidense	2:1 ✺
UEFA Europa League
30.01.25	Glasgow Rangers - Saint-Gilloise	2:1 ✺
Belgian Jupiler Pro League
26.01.25	Beerschot Wilrijk - Saint-Gilloise	0:4 ✺
UEFA Europa League
23.01.25	Saint-Gilloise - Braga	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.5 WWLWW
- Ajax Amsterdam
Dutch Eredivisie
09.02.25	Fortuna Sittard - Ajax	0:2 ✺
02.02.25	Ajax - Feyenoord	2:1 ✺
UEFA Europa League
30.01.25	Ajax - Galatasaray	2:1 ✺
23.01.25	RFS - Ajax	1:0 ✺
Dutch Eredivisie
19.01.25	Heerenveen - Ajax	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.5 WWWLW

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