Match Info

EUROPE: Europa League - Play Offs - 1/16-finals

Date: 13 February 2025, Thursday

Location: King Baudouin Stadium (Brussels)

Referee: Rumsas D. (Ltu)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Saint-Gilloise		Ajax

	1	X	2
	2	3.4	3.8
	2.05	3.5	3.75	Watch
	2.04	3.48	3.91
	2.03	3.5	3.67
	2.05	3.3	3.6
	2.1	3.49	3.71
	2.05	3.5	3.75
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.05 ↓ (2.25)	3.45 ↓ (3.54)	3.74 ↑ (3.11)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 3.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Saint-Gilloise
46.7%

Draw
27.7%

Ajax
25.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

42.4%

27%

30.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

43.1%

26.6%

30.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Saint-Gilloise has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.3%)

Ajax has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Ajax might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Saint-Gilloise than the current prediction. (-3.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ajax than the current prediction. (+4.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
45.5%	29.5%	25%

Saint Gilloise - Ajax Predictions

Users Predictions: 43 users predict this event. Union SG will win (votes: 20 - 46.5%). Ajax will win (votes: 10 - 23.3%). It will Tie (votes: 13 - 30.2%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Union SG: 31.6% – 61.4%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
49. Moris A. (C) 25. Khalaili A. 5. Mac Allister K. 16. Burgess C. 48. Leysen F. 10. Ait El Hadj A. 24. Vanhoutte C. 27. Sadiki N. 9. Ivanovic F. 12. David P. 22. Niang O.	22. Pasveer R. (G) 2. Rosa L. 24. Rugani D. 15. Baas Y. 4. Hato J. 18. Klaassen D. (C) 31. Mokio J. 28. Fitz-Jim K. 23. Berghuis S. 29. Rasmussen C. 17. Edvardsen O.
Substitutes
31. Asaidi M. 32. Asri M. 33. Berradi S. 23. Boufal S. 1. Chambaere V. (G) 77. Fuseini M. 14. Imbrechts J. (G) 28. Machida K. 4. Rasmussen M. 13. Rodriguez K.	64. Bounida R. 9. Brobbey B. 3. Gaaei A. 11. Godts M. 12. Gorter J. (G) 36. Janse D. 13. Kaplan A. 51. Setford C. (G) 63. Steur S. 37. Sutalo J. 8. Taylor K. 20. Traore B.
Coaches
Meert B.	Farioli F.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (0 - 2)
46', Rugani D. ↓, Sutalo J. ↑,
59', 0 - 1, Rasmussen C. ⚽, Edvardsen O. (A),
62', Mokio J. 🟨,
62', Ait El Hadj A. ↓, Fuseini M. ↑,
62', David P. ↓, Rodriguez K. ↑,
71', 0 - 2, Mokio J. ⚽,
72', Rosa L. ↓, Gaaei A. ↑,
72', Fitz-Jim K. ↓, Taylor K. ↑,
79', Mac Allister K. 🟨,
83', Rasmussen C. ↓, Godts M. ↑,
83', Berghuis S. ↓, Traore B. ↑,
85', Vanhoutte C. ↓, Rasmussen M. ↑,

Preview

1st leg. Playing home matches at a different stadium - King Baudouin Stadium.

Right away both teams are in a satisfying form.

In this match the chances to win of both teams are almost equal.

There will not play in Union SG: Boufal S. (Injury) Castro-Montes A. (Injury) Sykes R. (Yellow Cards) Van De Perre K. (Muscle Injury)

There will not play in Ajax: Godts M. (Muscle Injury) Matheus (Inactive) Regeer Y. (Ankle Injury) Weghorst W. (Toe Injury) Wijndal O. (Knee Injury) van Axel Dongen A. (Ankle Injury)

Recently, the teams did not play each other.

Last Results with these Odds

Saint-Gilloise - the odds 2.25 are the expected chance of winning is 42.37%, but this team recently wins 50% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Royale Union Saint-Gilloise
Belgian Jupiler Pro League
09.02.25	Kortrijk - Saint-Gilloise	1:2 ✺
02.02.25	Saint-Gilloise - Sint-Truidense	2:1 ✺
UEFA Europa League
30.01.25	Glasgow Rangers - Saint-Gilloise	2:1 ✺
Belgian Jupiler Pro League
26.01.25	Beerschot Wilrijk - Saint-Gilloise	0:4 ✺
UEFA Europa League
23.01.25	Saint-Gilloise - Braga	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.5 WWLWW
- Ajax Amsterdam
Dutch Eredivisie
09.02.25	Fortuna Sittard - Ajax	0:2 ✺
02.02.25	Ajax - Feyenoord	2:1 ✺
UEFA Europa League
30.01.25	Ajax - Galatasaray	2:1 ✺
23.01.25	RFS - Ajax	1:0 ✺
Dutch Eredivisie
19.01.25	Heerenveen - Ajax	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.5 WWWLW

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