Match Info

Eredivisie - Round 34

Date: 17 May 2026, Sunday

Location: Abe Lenstra Stadion (Heerenveen)

Referee: Kooij J. (Ned)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	SupeSport ESPN 2
Argentina	Disney+
Belgium	Play Sports 1, Play Sports 3
Brazil	Disney+
Canada	Sportsnet+, Sportsnet World
Chile	Disney+
Colombia	Disney+
Croatia	SportKlub 8
Cyprus	Cablenet Sports 2, Cablenet Sports 2
France	DAZN France
Germany	Sportdigital FUSSBALL 2
Greece	Nova Sports 5
Indonesia	Vidio
Israel	Sport 3
Italy	Como TV
Japan	U-NEXT
Kenya	Gotv
Mexico	Disney+, ESPN 4
Netherlands	Canal+, ESPN 3
Nigeria	SupeSport ESPN 2
North-central-america	Disney+ Caribbean
North-macedonia	MaxTV GO
Peru	Disney+
Poland	Polsat Sport Extra 4
Serbia	Arena Sport 5
Slovakia	Arena sport 1
Slovenia	Sport TV3
South-africa	SupeSport ESPN 2
Spain	Gol Play
Turkey	S Sport+
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	ESPN App, ESPN+
Venezuela	Disney+
World	Onefootball, Triller TV+


	Heerenveen		Ajax

	1	X	2
	3.25	4	2	Watch
	3.1	4.1	2.05
	3.2	4.1	2.02
	3.35	4.15	2.05
	3.29	3.98	2.01	Watch
	3.1	3.8	1.95
	3.4	4.06	2	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.24 ↓ (3.33)	4.03 ↓ (4.36)	2.01 ↑ (1.89)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.50

The best margin for this event is 2.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Heerenveen
29.3%

Draw
23.6%

Ajax
47.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

28.4%

21.7%

50%

Our Initial ML Estimation

27.3%

22.6%

52%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Heerenveen has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.9%)

Ajax has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Heerenveen than the current prediction. (-2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ajax than the current prediction. (+4.8%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
19%	38.1%	42.9%

Heerenveen - Ajax Predictions

Users Predictions: 21 users predict this event. Heerenveen will win (votes: 4 - 19%). Ajax will win (votes: 9 - 42.9%). It will Tie (votes: 8 - 38.1%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Ajax: 21.7% – 64.1%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Tie (votes: 2 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
22. Klaverboer B. (G) 45. Braude O. 4. Kersten S. 3. Willemsen M. 19. Zagaritis V. 6. van Overeem J. (C) 16. Linday M. 20. Trenskow J. 10. Meerveld R. 11. Oyen L. 9. Vente D.	26. Paes M. (G) 3. Gaaei A. 4. Itakura K. 15. Baas Y. 2. Rosa L. 48. Steur S. 24. Mokio J. 18. Klaassen D. (C) 23. Berghuis S. 25. Weghorst W. 11. Godts M.
Substitutes
35. Ahmed I. 31. Bakker N. (G) 40. Bonevacia C. 8. Brouwers L. 36. Courtens N. 15. Egbring M. 50. Gurbuz E. 17. Hopland N. 38. Mulder I. 44. Noppert A. (G) 18. Nordas L. 28. Petrov H.	43. Bounida R. 30. Bouwman A. 7. Carrizo M. 9. Dolberg K. 10. Gloukh O. 19. Konadu D. 50. Muzungu M. 6. Regeer Y. 52. Reverson P. (G) 32. Tomiyasu T. 45. van de Pavert R. 58. van der Velde V. (G)
Coaches
Veldman R.	Garcia O.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
26', Mokio J. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
58', Rosa L. 🟨,
69', Klaassen D. ↓, Regeer Y. ↑,
69', Berghuis S. ↓, Bounida R. ↑,
70', Regeer Y. 🟨,
75', Zagaritis V. ↓, Petrov H. ↑,
79', Steur S. ↓, Dolberg K. ↑,
84', Vente D. ↓, Nordas L. ↑,
84', Oyen L. ↓, Gurbuz E. ↑,
85', Godts M. ↓, Carrizo M. ↑,
87', Meerveld R. ↓, Brouwers L. ↑,

Preview

Watch a clash between a mid-table side and a current leader (ranked 7 in the zone Promotion ~ Eredivisie (Conference League ~ Play Offs: ) and 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Europa League (Qualification: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Heerenveen won 1.

Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.

Ajax may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Ajax might have a minor edge in this game.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Heerenveen won 2 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 16 matches, and goals 18:62. (average 0.9:3.1).

Including home matches between the teams, Heerenveen won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 8 matches, and goals 8:26. (average 0.8:2.6).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
5	Ajax	8	4	3	1	22:10	12	15
10	Heerenveen	8	2	3	3	11:11	0	9

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- SC Heerenveen
Dutch Eredivisie
11.05.26	NAC Breda - Heerenveen	2:0 ✺
03.05.26	Volendam - Heerenveen	0:2 ✺
25.04.26	Heerenveen - Fortuna Sittard	2:1 ✺
12.04.26	AZ Alkmaar - Heerenveen	3:0 ✺
05.04.26	Heerenveen - Heracles Almelo	4:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.2 LWWLW
- Ajax Amsterdam
Dutch Eredivisie
10.05.26	Ajax - Utrecht	1:2 ✺
02.05.26	Ajax - PSV Eindhoven	2:2 ✺
25.04.26	NAC Breda - Ajax	0:2 ✺
11.04.26	Heracles Almelo - Ajax	0:3 ✺
04.04.26	Ajax - Twente	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.7 LTWWL

Latest Head to Head

Dutch Eredivisie
01.11.25	Ajax - Heerenveen	1:1
19.01.25	Heerenveen - Ajax	0:2
11.08.24	Ajax - Heerenveen	1:0
11.02.24	Heerenveen - Ajax	3:2
05.11.23	Ajax - Heerenveen	4:1
12.03.23	Heerenveen - Ajax	2:4
10.09.22	Ajax - Heerenveen	5:0

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