Match Info

Carioca - Taca Guanabara - Round 2

Date: 18 January 2026, Sunday

Location: Estádio Governador João Castelo (São Luís)

Referee: de Oliveira J. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Claro TV+, Premiere, Sky+, SporTV, Vivo Play, Zapping


	Sampaio Corrêa FE		Botafogo RJ

	1	X	2
	2.32	3.2	2.92
	2.31	3.35	2.96	Watch
	2.2	3	2.9
	2.21	3.19	3.29
	2.33	3.5	2.9
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.27 ↓ (3.09)	3.25 ↑ (3.21)	2.99 ↑ (2.26)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Sampaio Corrêa FE
40.7%

Draw
28.5%

Botafogo RJ
30.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

30%

28.9%

41.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Sampaio Corrêa FE has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+10.7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Sampaio Corrêa FE's performance.

Botafogo RJ has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-10.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Botafogo RJ might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

Sampaio Corrêa FE - Botafogo RJ Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DNB - Botafogo (2.20) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Botafogo (votes: 2 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Ze Carlos (G) 2. Lucas Carvalho 3. Daniel Nunes 4. Lucas Marreta 6. Guilherme (C) 5. Pablo 11. Cruz Manhaes O. 8. Alexandre Souza 25. Rodrigo Andrade 7. Matheus Iacovelli 19. Ewerton Potiguar	1. Raul Steffens (C) 2. Rogerinho 3. Danilo 5. Marquinhos 6. Gabriel Abdias 8. Bernardo Valim 4. Justino G. 11. Januario F. 10. Caio Valle 7. Kauan Toledo 9. Arthur Izaque
Substitutes
12. Eduardo (G) 9. Elias 18. Gabriel Agu 13. Gabriel Almeida 21. Joao Martini 15. Lecaros A. 10. Luan Gama 17. Magno 20. Marcellinho 16. Rocha B. 14. Ryan Andrade 31. Ze Pompeu (G)	17. Fortunato 16. Henrique de Paula Martins P. 14. Kaua Branco 13. Lira J. 12. Loor C. (G) 15. Lucas Camilo 18. Matheus Martins 19. Samuel
Coaches
Sampaio A.	Anselmi M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
5', 0 - 1, Kauan Toledo ⚽, Arthur Izaque (A),
25', Raul Steffens 🟨,
28', Rogerinho 🟥,
34', Pablo 🟨,
39', 1 - 1, Rodrigo Andrade ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Kauan Toledo ↓, Fortunato ↑,
46', Januario F. ↓, Lucas Camilo ↑,
51', 2 - 1, Lucas Marreta ⚽, Guilherme (A),
52', Gabriel Abdias 🟨,
52', Ewerton Potiguar 🟨,
60', Ewerton Potiguar ↓, Luan Gama ↑,
64', Arthur Izaque ↓, Matheus Martins ↑,
66', Alexandre Souza 🟨,
67', Caio Valle 🟨,
72', Daniel Nunes 🟨,
72', Caio Valle ↓, Samuel ↑,
74', Pablo ↓, Magno ↑,
74', Rodrigo Andrade ↓, Elias ↑,
87', Alexandre Souza ↓, Marcellinho ↑,
87', Lucas Carvalho ↓, Rocha B. ↑,
90+3', Lucas Camilo 🟨,

Preview

Botafogo is currently in excellent shape (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.

In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Sampaio Corrêa won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 4:7. (average 1:1.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Sampaio Corrêa won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 3:3. (average 1.5:1.5).

Last Results with these Odds

Botafogo RJ - the odds 2.26 are the expected chance of winning is 41.06%, but this team recently wins 86% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Sampaio Corrêa FE
Brazilian Campeonato Carioca
15.01.26	Sampaio Corrêa FE - Nova Iguaçu	1:3 ✺
Brazilian Copa Rio
20.08.25	Sampaio Corrêa FE - Araruama	1:3 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Carioca
16.03.25	Sampaio Corrêa FE - Madureira	4:2 ✺
12.03.25	Madureira - Sampaio Corrêa FE	1:2 ✺
09.03.25	Sampaio Corrêa FE - Boavista	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.3 LLWWW
- Botafogo RJ
Brazilian Campeonato Carioca
15.01.26	Portuguesa RJ - Botafogo RJ	0:2 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
07.12.25	Botafogo RJ - Fortaleza	4:2 ✺
04.12.25	Cruzeiro - Botafogo RJ	2:2 ✺
30.11.25	Corinthians - Botafogo RJ	2:2 ✺
22.11.25	Botafogo RJ - Grêmio	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.4 WWTTW

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Campeonato Carioca
18.01.25	Sampaio Corrêa FE - Botafogo RJ	2:1
17.03.24	Botafogo RJ - Sampaio Corrêa FE	2:1
10.03.24	Sampaio Corrêa FE - Botafogo RJ	1:2
27.01.24	Botafogo RJ - Sampaio Corrêa FE	2:0

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