Match Info

BRAZIL: Serie C - First stage - Round 10

Date: 26 June 2024, Wednesday

Location: Estádio Governador João Castelo (São Luís)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Claro TV+, IT tv Plus, Nosso Futebol+, Sky+, Zapping


	Sampaio Corrêa		Athletic Club

	1	X	2
				Watch
	2.9	2.95	2.25
	3	3	2.3
	3.35	2.99	2.33
	3.35	2.96	2.33
	2.9	3	2.2
	3.14	3.04	2.23	Watch
	3.1	3	2.27
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.11 ↑ (2.9)	2.99 ↑ (2.95)	2.27 ↓ (2.47)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 6.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Sampaio Corrêa
29.4%

Draw
30.5%

Athletic Club
40.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

31.7%

31.1%

37.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

31.3%

30.7%

37.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Sampaio Corrêa has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.3%)

Athletic Club has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Sampaio Corrêa than the current prediction. (+1.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Athletic Club than the current prediction. (-2.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	33.3%	66.7%

Sampaio Corrêa - Athletic Club Predictions

Users Predictions: 6 users predict this event. Athletic will win (votes: 4 - 66.7%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 33.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Rafael Mariano (G) 3. Betao 9. Bruno Baio 4. Fabio Aguiar (C) 10. Gabriel Silva 5. Gazao 7. Mauricio Maranhao 20. Nadson Mesquita 11. Pimentinha 2. Rafael Luiz 6. Thiago Rosa	1. Glauco (G) 3. Danilo Cardoso 10. David Braga 9. Denilson 5. Diego Fumaca (C) 8. Djalma 4. Marcelo Sousa 11. Villero P. 7. Welinton Torrao 2. Ynaia 6. Yuri
Substitutes
12. Alan (G) 21. Breno Almeida 32. Carlos Eduardo (G) 15. Escuro 22. Fabrizio 8. Ferreira 14. Itambe 18. Joao Felipe 16. Marcelinho 13. Onwudiwe F. 19. Renan Gorne 17. Thiaguinho	20. Alason Carioca 15. Bruno Gomes 13. Douglas Pele 16. Geovane 12. Jefferson Luis (G) 17. Nathan 19. Neto Costa 18. Rafael Conceicao 14. Victor Sallinas
Coaches
Ze Augusto	Roger Silva

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (3 - 0)
6', 1 - 0, Pimentinha ⚽,
23', Gazao 🟨,
25', 2 - 0, Gabriel Silva ⚽,
37', 3 - 0, Pimentinha ⚽,
45+3', Diego Fumaca 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Welinton Torrao ↓, Alason Carioca ↑,
46', Ynaia ↓, Douglas Pele ↑,
46', David Braga ↓, Nathan ↑,
46', Djalma ↓, Rafael Conceicao ↑,
59', Villero P. ↓, Neto Costa ↑,
63', Douglas Pele 🟨,
73', Rafael Luiz 🟨,
75', Rafael Luiz 🟨,
75', 3 - 1, Neto Costa ⚽,
77', Gabriel Silva ↓, Ferreira ↑,
77', Pimentinha ↓, Thiaguinho ↑,
83', Gazao ↓, Escuro ↑,
87', Nadson Mesquita ↓, Itambe ↑,
88', Mauricio Maranhao 🟨,
90+3', 🟨,

Preview

This match will be held between outsider and one of leaders (ranked 18 in the zone Relegation ~ Serie D and 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie C (Second stage: )).

Recent matches Sampaio Corrêa is playing shaky (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Athletic is in super good shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

Sampaio Corrêa could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

The possibility to win in this match is almost balanced for both teams.

Recently, the teams did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Sampaio Corrêa
Brazilian Serie C
18.06.24	São Bernardo - Sampaio Corrêa	0:0 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Maranhense
15.06.24	Maranhão - Sampaio Corrêa	0:1 ✺
Brazilian Serie C
12.06.24	Sampaio Corrêa - Caxias	2:1 ✺
08.06.24	Londrina - Sampaio Corrêa	2:0 ✺
01.06.24	Sampaio Corrêa - Remo	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14 TWWLL
- Athletic Club MG
Brazilian Serie C
15.06.24	Athletic Club - Ferroviário Fortaleza	3:1 ✺
09.06.24	Athletic Club - Volta Redonda	3:2 ✺
03.06.24	Botafogo PB - Athletic Club	3:1 ✺
20.05.24	Athletic Club - Aparecidense	1:0 ✺
12.05.24	CS Alagoano - Athletic Club	0:5 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.5 WWLWW

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