The best margin for this event is 3.2%, offered by
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Current Win Probability
Toluca 45.5%
Draw 28.2%
Chivas Guadalajara 26.3%
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
45.9%
27.6%
26.5%
Our Initial ML Estimation
49.2%
29.6%
24.7%
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Toluca has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.4%)
Chivas Guadalajara has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.2%)
ML Model estimates a higher probability for Toluca than the current prediction. (+3.7%)
ML Model estimates a lower probability for Chivas Guadalajara than the current prediction. (-1.6%)
Who will win by Users?
1
X
2
75%
12.5%
12.5%
Toluca - Chivas Guadalajara Predictions
Users Predictions:
8 users predict this event. Toluca will win (votes: 6 - 75%). Guadalajara will win (votes: 1 - 12.5%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 12.5%). Confidence interval (95%) for Toluca: 45% – 100%.
Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:
AH +1 - Guadalajara (1.40) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Guadalajara (votes: 1 - 100%).
Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1
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Lineups
Starting Lineups
22. Garcia L. (G) 2. Barbosa D. 6. Pereira F. 4. Bruno Mendez 20. Gallardo J. 29. Diaz J. 5. Romero F. 19. Simon S. 10. Angulo J. 26. Paulinho 14. Ruiz M. (C)
1. Rangel R. (G) 23. Aguirre D. 19. Campillo Del Campo D. 2. Castillo J. 37. Ledezma R. 7. Romo L. (C) 28. Gonzalez F. 5. Gonzalez B. 25. Alvarado R. 10. Alvarez E. 34. Gonzalez A.
Substitutes
24. Arce F. 3. Briseno A. 7. Cordova S. 25. del Villar E. 1. Gonzalez H. (G) 11. Helinho 17. Isais M. 13. Luan 15. Perez P. 27. Rossi F.
26. Camberos H. 24. Gomez M. 6. Govea O. 11. Gutierrez B. 17. Marin R. 31. Padilla Y. 226. Sandoval S. 20. Sepulveda A. 3. Sepulveda G. 13. Whalley O. (G)
Coaches
Mohamed A.
Milito G.
Key Events of the Match
1st Half (2 - 0)
5', 1 - 0, Gallardo J. (Penalty Awarded),
13', Romero F. 🟨,
16', 2 - 0, Diaz J. ⚽, Paulinho (A),
40', Romo L. ↓, Gutierrez B. ↑,
45+7', Barbosa D. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Simon S. ↓, del Villar E. ↑,
46', Castillo J. ↓, Sandoval S. ↑,
46', Alvarez E. ↓, Sepulveda A. ↑,
46', Ledezma R. ↓, Camberos H. ↑,
51', Gallardo J. 🟨,
53', Gonzalez F. 🟨,
60', Gonzalez A. ↓, Marin R. ↑,
64', Aguirre D. 🟨,
67', Sepulveda A. 🟨,
71', Diaz J. ↓, Helinho ↑,
75', Angulo J. ↓, Perez P. ↑,
90+2', Ruiz M. 🟨,
90+3', Gallardo J. ↓, Luan ↑,
90+4', Ruiz M. ↓, Arce F. ↑,
Preview
One of the most interesting matches of the day, featuring two top-table teams (ranked 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga MX (Clausura ~ Play Offs: Quarter~finals) and 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga MX (Clausura ~ Play Offs: Quarter~finals)).
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Toluca won 2.
Currently, both teams are in excellent shape.
Guadalajara may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
Toluca might have a minor edge in this game.
There will not play in Toluca: Castro N.
(Injury)
Helinho
(Muscle Injury)
There will not play in Guadalajara: Perez J.
(Thigh Injury)
Romo L.
(Thigh Injury)
Sepulveda L.
(Ankle Injury)
There are questionable in Toluca: Vega A.
(Injury)
In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Toluca won 4 matches, drew 11 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 21:22. (average 1.1:1.1).
Including home matches between the teams, Toluca won 2 matches, drew 6 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 9:9. (average 1:1).
Standings
Pl
W
D
L
Diff
Pts
2
Toluca
11
6
2
3
25:15
10
20
4
Guadalajara Chivas
11
5
4
2
18:11
7
19
Last Results with these Odds
Toluca - the odds 1.99 are the expected chance of winning is 45.9%, but this team recently wins 55% of matches with these odds.
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Garcia L. (G) 
Pereira F. 
Romero F. 
Paulinho 
Aguirre D. 
Helinho 
Whalley O. (G) 
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