The best margin for this event is 2.9%, offered by
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Current Win Probability
UNAM 25.5%
Draw 26.2%
Toluca 48.3%
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
21.3%
27%
51.6%
Our Initial ML Estimation
21.1%
26.7%
52.1%
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
UNAM has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.2%)
Toluca has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.3%)
ML Model estimates a lower probability for UNAM than the current prediction. (-4.4%)
ML Model estimates a higher probability for Toluca than the current prediction. (+3.8%)
Who will win by Users?
1
X
2
18.2%
54.5%
27.3%
UNAM - Toluca Predictions
Users Predictions:
11 users predict this event. UNAM will win (votes: 2 - 18.2%). Toluca will win (votes: 3 - 27.3%). It will Tie (votes: 6 - 54.5%). Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 25.1% – 83.9%.
Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:
DC - UNAM (1.79) (votes: 4 - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.
AH 0 - UNAM (2.70) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 8 Selected Experts predict this event. UNAM (votes: 6 - 75%). Toluca (votes: 2 - 25%).
Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2
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Lineups
Starting Lineups
1. Navas K. (C) 7. Lopez R. 6. Nathan Silva 215. Azuaje A. 77. Angulo A. 22. Medina A. 28. Carrasquilla A. 45. Vite P. 33. Carrillo J. 31. Morales R. 23. Juninho
1. Gonzalez H. (G) 2. Barbosa D. 13. Luan 4. Bruno Mendez 6. Pereira F. 20. Gallardo J. (C) 10. Angulo J. 5. Romero F. 15. Perez P. 29. Diaz J. 26. Paulinho
Substitutes
21. Antuna U. 2. Bennevendo P. 8. Caicedo J. 5. Duarte R. 14. Garza C. 24. Leone T. 9. Martinez G. 181. Paul M. (G) 193. Ramirez D. 19. Rivas J.
24. Arce F. 3. Briseno A. 8. Castro N. 7. Cordova S. 22. Garcia L. (G) 11. Helinho 17. Isais M. 187. Pumpido F. 27. Rossi F. 23. Virgen O.
Coaches
Juarez E.
Mohamed A.
Key Events of the Match
1st Half (1 - 1)
29', 1 - 0, Morales R. (Penalty Awarded),
37', 1 - 1, Angulo J. ⚽, Perez P. (A),
38', Angulo J. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 2)
57', Carrillo J. ↓, Antuna U. ↑,
63', 2 - 1, Angulo A. ⚽, Antuna U. (A),
63', Luan ↓, Helinho ↑,
65', 🟨,
73', 2 - 2, Barbosa D. ⚽, Helinho (A),
75', Medina A. ↓, Martinez G. ↑,
77', Diaz J. ↓, Castro N. ↑,
79', 2 - 3, Paulinho ⚽,
82', Angulo J. ↓, Briseno A. ↑,
90+2', Vite P. ↓, Garza C. ↑,
90+2', Azuaje A. ↓, Duarte R. ↑,
Preview
One of today’s top clashes will feature two teams fighting for the top spots (ranked 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga MX (Clausura ~ Play Offs: Quarter~finals) and 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga MX (Clausura ~ Play Offs: Quarter~finals)).
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, UNAM won 0.
At the moment, both teams are looking strong and ready to play.
UNAM may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
Toluca could have a small edge in this match.
There will not play in UNAM: Macias J.
(Knee Injury)
There will not play in Toluca: Castro N.
(Injury)
Ruiz M.
(Yellow Cards)
There are questionable in UNAM: Trigos S.
(Injury)
There are questionable in Toluca: Simon S.
(Injury)
Vega A.
(Injury)
In the last 20 head-to-head matches, UNAM won 7 matches, drew 8 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 28:23. (average 1.4:1.2).
Including home matches between the teams, UNAM won 4 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 16:8. (average 1.6:0.8).
Standings
Pl
W
D
L
Diff
Pts
2
Toluca
11
6
2
3
25:15
10
20
13
UNAM Pumas
10
3
3
4
14:16
-2
12
Last Results with these Odds
Toluca - the odds 1.76 are the expected chance of winning is 51.63%, but this team recently wins 71% of matches with these odds.
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Navas K. (C) 
Lopez R. 
Nathan Silva 
Angulo A. 
Carrasquilla A. 
Vite P. 
Morales R. 
Bruno Mendez 
Romero F. 
Paulinho 
Duarte R. 
Arce F. 
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