Match Info

Date: 16 April 2022, Saturday


	San Diego Loyal		Louisville City

	1	X	2
	2.3	3.4	2.6
	2.25	3.25	2.75
	2.43	3	2.65
	2.58	3.52	2.54
	2.52	3.38	2.53
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.42 ↑ (2.09)	3.31 ↑ (3.24)	2.61 ↓ (3.25)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 6.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

San Diego Loyal
37.7%

Draw
27.5%

Louisville City
34.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

43.7%

28.2%

28.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

43.3%

28.5%

28.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

San Diego Loyal has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that San Diego Loyal's form might have worsened.

Louisville City has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Louisville City's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for San Diego Loyal than the current prediction. (+5.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for San Diego Loyal, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Louisville City than the current prediction. (-6.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Louisville City, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

San Diego Loyal - Louisville City Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Preview

The great teams are gonna meet at this game. The most expected match between two teams from the very top of the group (ranked 1 in the zone Promotion ~ USL Championship (Play Offs: Semi~finals) and 1 in the zone Promotion ~ USL Championship (Play Offs: Semi~finals)).

San Diego Loyal has the most likely position - 2 (15.85%), has project points - 59, has currently - 16, has a good chance of playoffs (87%), has a good chance of qtrs (52%), has a chance of semis (26%), has a small chance of final (13%), has a small chance of win league (7%).

Louisville City has the most likely position - 1 (33.23%), has project points - 62, has currently - 14, has a good chance of playoffs (95%), has a good chance of qtrs (71%), has a chance of semis (44%), has a chance of final (25%), has a small chance of win league (12%).

This event has small quality 23, small importance 10, small match rating 16. (0-100) (fivethirtyeight.com)

San Diego Loyal in the last match got series victories and it is in a super good shape (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

Louisville City is in super good shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Louisville City could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match the chances to win of both teams are almost equal.

Last 1 head-to-head matches San Diego Loyal won 0 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 1-2.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- San Diego Loyal
USL Championship
13.04.22	Oakland Roots - San Diego Loyal	2:2 ✺
09.04.22	San Diego Loyal - Charleston Battery	4:1 ✺
US Open Cup
06.04.22	Albion San Diego - San Diego Loyal	1:2 ✺
USL Championship
03.04.22	San Diego Loyal - El Paso Locomotive	3:2 ✺
26.03.22	Phoenix Rising - San Diego Loyal	2:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 18.4 TWWWW
- Louisville City FC
USL Championship
10.04.22	Loudoun United - Louisville City	0:2 ✺
US Open Cup
06.04.22	Louisville City - Chattanooga Red Wolves	1:0 ✺
USL Championship
02.04.22	Birmingham Legion - Louisville City	0:0 ✺
26.03.22	Louisville City - Indy Eleven	1:1 ✺
23.03.22	New York Red Bulls 2 - Louisville City	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.9 WWTTW

Latest Head to Head

USL Championship
22.05.21	Louisville City - San Diego Loyal	2:1

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