Match Info

SOUTH AMERICA: Copa Libertadores - Play Offs - 1/8-finals

Date: 13 August 2024, Tuesday

Location: Estadio Pedro Bidegain (Buenos Aires)

Referee: Tejera G. (Uru)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	StarTimes App
Argentina	Fox Sports
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 4, TOD
Australia	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Premium 1, Arena Sport 1
Brazil	Paramount+
Canada	beIN Connect, FuboTV
Chile	ESPN
Colombia	ESPN 3
Croatia	Arena Sport 1, MAXtv To Go
Greece	COSMOTE Sport 8
Indonesia	Mola TV
Israel	Sport 3
Mexico	ESPN
New-zealand	beIN Connect
Nigeria	Sporty TV
North-central-america	ESPN 5 Norte, ESPNPlay Caribbean
Peru	ESPN
Portugal	Sport TV1
Russia	Okko Sport
Serbia	Arena Premium 1
Slovenia	Arena Sport 1
South-america	ESPN South
Spain	beIN Sports US XTRA Espanol, beIN Sports US XTRA Espanol
Turkey	S Sport, S Sport+
Usa	beIN Connect, beIN Sports US XTRA, FuboTV
World	Amazon Prime Video, Disney+, Fanatiz, LaLiga+ app


	San Lorenzo		Atlético Mineiro

	1	X	2
	3.1	2.8	2.6	Watch
	3.1	2.7	2.75
	3.1	2.75	2.65
	3.29	2.75	2.74
	3.19	2.73	2.7	Watch
	2.9	2.7	2.6	Watch
	3.22	2.75	2.73	Watch
	3.1	2.75	2.65
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.13 ↑ (2.51)	2.74 ↓ (3.14)	2.68 ↓ (2.92)

The most likely Over/Under: 1.50

The best margin for this event is 3.3%, offered by

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Network on TV: fubo Sports Network

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Current Win Probability

San Lorenzo
30.2%

Draw
34.5%

Atlético Mineiro
35.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

37.6%

30.1%

32.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

36.9%

30.7%

32.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

San Lorenzo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.4%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that San Lorenzo's form might have worsened.

Atlético Mineiro has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for San Lorenzo than the current prediction. (+6.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for San Lorenzo, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Atlético Mineiro than the current prediction. (-2.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
14.3%	57.1%	28.6%

San Lorenzo - Atlético Mineiro Predictions

Users Predictions: 20 users predict this event. San Lorenzo will win (votes: 3 - 15%). Atlético MG will win (votes: 6 - 30%). It will Tie (votes: 11 - 55%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 33.2% – 76.8%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
13. Altamirano F. (G) 30. Arias N. 5. Remedi E. 22. Campi G. 37. Baez E. 8. Reali M. 17. Irala E. 24. Tripichio N. 35. Lujan G. 28. Cuello A. 41. Leguizamon I.	22. Everson (G) 26. Renzo Saravia 21. Battaglia R. 8. Alonso J. 6. Gustavo Scarpa 5. Otavio 18. Fausto Vera 13. Guilherme Arana (C) 20. Bernard 9. Deyverson 10. Paulinho
Substitutes
31. Alassia G. 10. Barrios N. 29. Blanco S. 32. Bruera F. 77. Bustos N. 7. Cerutti E. 25. Gomez G. (G) 36. Herrera D. 46. Perez M. 20. Porra T. 40. Sosa S. 9. Vombergar A.	45. Alisson 3. Bruno Fuchs 42. Cadu 23. Franco A. 17. Igor Gomes 2. Lyanco 25. Mariano 31. Matheus Mendes (G) 27. Monteiro P. 30. Palacios Alzate B. 44. Rubens 15. Zaracho M.
Coaches
Romagnoli L.	Milito G.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
17', 1 - 0, Cuello A. ⚽, Reali M. (A),
18', Cuello A. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Remedi E. ↓, Sosa S. ↑,
56', Baez E. 🟨,
58', 1 - 1, Paulinho ⚽,
73', Leguizamon I. ↓, Barrios N. ↑,
74', Otavio ↓, Mariano ↑,
74', Deyverson ↓, Cadu ↑,
81', Reali M. ↓, Bustos N. ↑,
83', Bernard ↓, Zaracho M. ↑,
83', Gustavo Scarpa ↓, Alisson ↑,

Preview

1st leg.

Two teams are playing changeable.

Atlético MG could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

In this match the chances to achieve triumph for both teams are almost equal.

Last 2 head-to-head matches San Lorenzo won 1 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 1-0.

Including matches at home between the teams San Lorenzo won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 1-0.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- San Lorenzo
Argentinian Liga Profesional
10.08.24	San Lorenzo - Atlético Tucumán	0:1 ✺
Copa Argentina
06.08.24	San Lorenzo - Vélez Sársfield	1:3 ✺
Argentinian Liga Profesional
03.08.24	Independiente - San Lorenzo	0:0 ✺
27.07.24	San Lorenzo - Newells Old Boys	1:1 ✺
23.07.24	Gimnasia La Plata - San Lorenzo	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.8 LLTTW
- Atlético Mineiro
Brazilian Serie A
10.08.24	Cruzeiro - Atlético Mineiro	0:0 ✺
Copa do Brasil
07.08.24	Atlético Mineiro - CRB Maceio	3:0 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
03.08.24	Criciúma - Atlético Mineiro	2:1 ✺
Copa do Brasil
31.07.24	CRB Maceio - Atlético Mineiro	2:2 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
28.07.24	Atlético Mineiro - Corinthians	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.5 TWLTW

Latest Head to Head

Copa Sudamericana
08.05.18	Atlético Mineiro - San Lorenzo	0:0
11.04.18	San Lorenzo - Atlético Mineiro	1:0

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