Match Info

ARGENTINA: PRIMERA NACIONAL - ROUND 29

Date: 16 August 2023, Wednesday

Location: Estadio La Ciudadela (San Miguel de Tucumán)

Referee: Ejarque M. (Arg)


	San Martín de Tucumán		Defensores Unidos

	1	X	2
	1.45	3.8	8.5
	1.47	3.6	7.5
	1.52	3.8	6.6
	1.5	3.73	8.8
	1.47	3.4	8
	1.51	3.7	8
	1.47	3.65	8
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.48 ↓ (1.69)	3.67 ↑ (3.29)	7.91 ↑ (5.15)

The most likely Over/Under: 1.75

The best margin for this event is 4.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

San Martín de Tucumán
62.8%

Draw
25.4%

Defensores Unidos
11.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

54.2%

27.9%

17.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

48%

24.7%

20.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

San Martín de Tucumán has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in San Martín de Tucumán's performance.

Defensores Unidos has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Defensores Unidos might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for San Martín de Tucumán than the current prediction. (-14.8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with San Martín de Tucumán that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Defensores Unidos than the current prediction. (+8.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Defensores Unidos could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
84.6%	7.7%	7.7%

San Martín de Tucumán - Defensores Unidos Predictions

Users Predictions: San Martín de Tucumán will win (11 of 13 users predict this - 84.62%).
Confidence interval (95%): 65.01% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Sand D. (G) 4. Sansotre N. 2. Brunet N. 6. Meritello F. 3. Banegas N. 5. Abregu G. 7. Ciccolini L. 8. Bucca L. 10. Andrada B. 9. Prokop A. 11. Dening E.	1. Henricot F. (G) 4. Ponce J. 2. Laumann F. 6. Zadel D. 3. Suarez L. 8. Ortigoza M. 5. Nizzo M. 10. Disanto L. 11. Garcia B. 7. Bellido T. 9. Toloza N.
Substitutes
20. Acosta M. 13. Bazzana N. 14. Bordon A. 19. Colazo A. 18. Martinez E. 17. Molinas I. A. 16. Nunez G. 12. Tinaglini F. (G) 15. Vera U.	14. Alarcon M. N. 12. Aquino M. (G) 13. Arebalo F. 15. Desposito P. 16. Gomez B. 19. Lonardi F. 17. Nunez D. 20. Osuna L. 18. Suarez J.
Coaches
Frontini P.	Davio S.

Preview

Recent matches San Martín de Tucumán is playing changeable (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Defensores Unidos is in cheap shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

In this match San Martín de Tucumán is the unquestionable favorite.

Last 1 head-to-head matches San Martín de Tucumán won 0 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 0-1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- San Martín de Tucumán
Argentinian Primera Nacional
06.08.23	Guillermo Brown - San Martín de Tucumán	3:0 ✺
30.07.23	San Martín de Tucumán - Agropecuario Argentino	1:1 ✺
23.07.23	Club Almagro - San Martín de Tucumán	0:0 ✺
Copa Argentina
19.07.23	Racing - San Martín de Tucumán	2:1 ✺
Argentinian Primera Nacional
14.07.23	San Martín de Tucumán - San Telmo	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.7 LTTLW
- Defensores Unidos
Argentinian Primera Nacional
06.08.23	Defensores Unidos - Nueva Chicago	0:0 ✺
31.07.23	All Boys - Defensores Unidos	1:0 ✺
22.07.23	Defensores Unidos - Estudiantes de Río Cuarto	0:1 ✺
17.07.23	Defensores de Belgrano - Defensores Unidos	1:2 ✺
09.07.23	Defensores Unidos - Almirante Brown	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.4 TLLWL

Latest Head to Head

Argentinian Primera Nacional
05.04.23	Defensores Unidos - San Martín de Tucumán	1:0

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