Match Info

Primera Nacional - Round 17

Date: 31 May 2025, Saturday

Location: Estadio La Ciudadela (Tucuman)

Referee: Echavarria P. (Arg)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	TyC Sports, TyC Sports Play
Usa	Fanatiz
Venezuela	Inter
World	TyC Sports Internacional


	San Martín de Tucumán		San Miguel

	1	X	2
	2.5	2.75	3.3	Watch
	2.37	2.65	3.3
	2.41	2.7	3.4	Watch
	2.52	2.69	3.56
	2.52	2.6	3.52	Watch
	2.38	2.75	3.25
	2.42	2.74	3.43	Watch
	2.41	2.7	3.4
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.44 ↑ (2.04)	2.7 ↓ (3.1)	3.4 ↓ (3.95)

The most likely Over/Under: 1.75

The best margin for this event is 4.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

San Martín de Tucumán
38.1%

Draw
34.5%

San Miguel
27.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

46%

30.3%

23.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

47.4%

29.4%

23.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

San Martín de Tucumán has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.9%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that San Martín de Tucumán's form might have worsened.

San Miguel has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for San Martín de Tucumán than the current prediction. (+9.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for San Martín de Tucumán, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for San Miguel than the current prediction. (-4.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
40%	50%	10%

San Martín de Tucumán - San Miguel Predictions

Users Predictions: 10 users predict this event. San Martin T will win (votes: 4 - 40%). San Miguel will win (votes: 1 - 10%). It will Tie (votes: 5 - 50%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 19% – 81%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 4 Selected Experts predict this event. San Martin T (votes: 1 - 25%). Tie (votes: 3 - 75%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Sand D. (G) 4. Cainelli N. 2. Perez M. 6. Rodriguez G. 3. Zuliani H. 10. Cuevas J. 5. Abregu G. 8. Garcia M. 7. Vera U. 11. Esquivel J. 9. Pino M.	1. Sappa D. (G) 4. Antunes I. 2. Parnisari E. 6. Cardozo F. (C) 3. D. Renteria 8. Sena F. 5. Juarez J. 11. Sosa D. 7. Salto C. 9. Nasta B. 10. Dening E.
Substitutes
12. Carrizo N. (G) 18. Cisnero A. 15. Graneros A. 13. Penalba T. 17. Prokop A. 14. Quiroz F. 16. Soraire J. 19. Taboada L. 20. Veron M.	17. Almada A. 15. Ferrero J. 18. Grance I. 13. Kippes A. 20. Lavezzi A. 12. Lungarzo J. (G) 19. Mosca C. 16. Ortiz L. 14. Rojas M.
Coaches
Martos A.	Coleoni G.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
25', Sosa D. 🟨,
32', Juarez J. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Salto C. ↓, Ferrero J. ↑,
57', Abregu G. ↓, Prokop A. ↑,
61', 0 - 1, Cardozo F. ⚽,
62', Vera U. ↓, Taboada L. ↑,
69', Nasta B. ↓, Kippes A. ↑,
69', Juarez J. ↓, Mosca C. ↑,
70', Cardozo F. 🟨,
78', Sosa D. ↓, Lavezzi A. ↑,
80', Zuliani H. ↓, Quiroz F. ↑,
80', Garcia M. ↓, Cisnero A. ↑,
83', Ferrero J. 🟨,
85', Lavezzi A. 🟨,
86', Sena F. ↓, Rojas M. ↑,

Preview

San Martin T is undoubtedly in great shape (last 5 games: 3 wins).

San Miguel's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

San Martin T could have a small edge in this match.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, San Martin T won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 1:1. (average 0.5:0.5).

Including home match between the teams, San Martin T won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 1:0.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- San Martín de Tucumán
Argentinian Primera Nacional
26.05.25	Quilmes - San Martín de Tucumán	1:2 ✺
17.05.25	San Martín de Tucumán - Racing de Córdoba	1:1 ✺
11.05.25	Atlanta Buenos Aires - San Martín de Tucumán	3:1 ✺
02.05.25	San Martín de Tucumán - Colegiales	2:0 ✺
26.04.25	Arsenal Sarandí - San Martín de Tucumán	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.4 WTLWW
- CA San Miguel
Argentinian Primera Nacional
24.05.25	San Miguel - Güemes	1:1 ✺
19.05.25	Patronato Parana - San Miguel	2:1 ✺
10.05.25	San Miguel - Ferro Carril Oeste	2:0 ✺
03.05.25	Club Almagro - San Miguel	1:0 ✺
26.04.25	San Miguel - Los Andes	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.6 TLWLW

Latest Head to Head

Argentinian Primera Nacional
14.07.24	San Martín de Tucumán - San Miguel	1:0
26.02.24	San Miguel - San Martín de Tucumán	1:0

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