Match Info

Liga Portugal - Round 17

Date: 4 January 2026, Sunday

Location: Estádio de São Miguel (Ponta Delgada)

Referee: Pereira C. (Por)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	ZAP
Albania	Tring Sport 3
Brazil	Disney+
Bulgaria	Ring, Voyo
Cyprus	Cytavision on the Go, Cytavision Sports 5, Cytavision Sports 5
Finland	Veikkaus TV
France	beIN Connect, beIN Sports MAX 7, Free
Georgia	Silk Sport 3
Germany	Sportdigital FUSSBALL 2
Greece	COSMOTE Sport 3
Hungary	Sport 2
Italy	DAZN Italia
Kuwait	KTV Sport
Netherlands	Ziggo Sport 3
Norway	VG+
Poland	Eleven Sports 4
Portugal	Sport TV1
Russia	TV Start, TV Start Triumph
Serbia	Arena Sport 7, Arena Sport 8
Slovakia	Arena sport 1
South-america	Gol TV Play Latinoamerica
Turkey	S Sport+, Tivibu Spor 2
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 4


	Santa Clara		Porto

	1	X	2
	7	3.6	1.51	Watch
	6.5	3.9	1.5
	6.9	3.7	1.52	Watch
	7.34	3.91	1.51	Watch
	7	3.7	1.5	Watch
	7.7	3.72	1.58	Watch
	7.5	3.8	1.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	7.13 ↓ (7.6)	3.76 ↓ (3.85)	1.52 ↑ (1.49)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 3.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Santa Clara
13.2%

Draw
25%

Porto
61.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

12.4%

24.4%

63.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

12.1%

23.7%

65%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Santa Clara has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.8%)

Porto has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Santa Clara than the current prediction. (-1.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Porto than the current prediction. (+3.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
11.4%	11.4%	77.1%

Santa Clara - Porto Predictions

Users Predictions: 35 users predict this event. Santa Clara will win (votes: 4 - 11.4%). Porto will win (votes: 27 - 77.1%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 11.4%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Porto: 63.2% – 91%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Porto will win (7 of 9 users predict this - 77.78%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Gabriel Batista (C) 23. Lima S. 13. Rocha L. 94. Silva H. 42. Lucas Soares 65. Tavares J. 8. Ferreira P. 6. Adriano Firmino 64. Paulo Victor 10. Gabriel Silva 70. Vinicius Lopes	99. Costa D. (C) 52. Fernandes M. 5. Bednarek J. 4. Kiwior J. 74. Moura F. 10. Veiga G. 13. Rosario P. 8. Froholdt V. 11. Pepê 9. Samu 7. William Gomes
Substitutes
20. Adriel 11. Brenner 17. Costa J. 80. Duarte T. 7. Elias Manoel 82. Luis Eduardo 28. Luquinhas 12. Neneca (G) 21. Venancio F.	47. Alarcon A. 14. Claudio Ramos (G) 20. Costa A. 6. Eustaquio S. 27. Gul D. 86. Mora R. 21. Prpic D. 17. Sainz B. 22. Varela A.
Coaches
Matos V.	Farioli F.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
11', Bednarek J. 🟨,
28', Moura F. ↓, Costa A. ↑,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
50', 0 - 1, Samu ⚽,
61', Veiga G. ↓, Varela A. ↑,
61', William Gomes ↓, Sainz B. ↑,
66', Vinicius Lopes 🟨,
72', Ferreira P. ↓, Brenner ↑,
77', Rosario P. 🟨,
77', Tavares J. 🟨,
78', Varela A. 🟨,
79', Pepê ↓, Gul D. ↑,
80', Costa A. 🟨,
83', Paulo Victor ↓, Luquinhas ↑,

Preview

Watch a clash between a mid-table side and a current leader (ranked 13 and 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Santa Clara won 0.

In recent matches, Santa Clara has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Porto is on a winning streak and currently in very good shape (last 5 games: 5 wins).

Porto may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Recently, Porto has had a series of home games.

In this match, Porto is the undisputed favorite.

There will not play in Santa Clara: Diogo Calila (International duty) Pacheco P. (Knee Injury) Serginho (Yellow Cards)

There will not play in Porto: Franco A. (Lower-Body Injury) Perez N. (Achilles Tendon Injury) Perez T. (Achilles Tendon Injury) Zaidu (International duty) de Jong L. (Knee Injury)

There are questionable in Santa Clara: MT (Injury) Vinicius Lopes (Leg Injury)

There are questionable in Porto: Costa D. (Injury)

In the last 17 head-to-head matches, Santa Clara won 2 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 13 matches, and goals 9:27. (average 0.5:1.6).

Including home matches between the teams, Santa Clara won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 6 matches, and goals 6:14. (average 0.7:1.6).

Outrights of Liga Portugal for now

FC Porto: 44.9% Santa Clara: 0.85%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	FC Porto	7	7	0	0	18:3	15	21
4	Santa Clara	7	4	3	0	11:4	7	15

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- CD Santa Clara
Liga Portugal
21.12.25	Santa Clara - Arouca	0:0 ✺
Taça de Portugal
18.12.25	Santa Clara - Sporting Lisbon	2:3 ET ✺
Liga Portugal
15.12.25	Braga - Santa Clara	1:0 ✺
06.12.25	Santa Clara - Casa Pia	1:0 ✺
30.11.25	Rio Ave - Santa Clara	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.1 TLLWT
- FC Porto
Liga Portugal
29.12.25	Porto - AVS	2:0 ✺
22.12.25	Alverca - Porto	0:3 ✺
Taça de Portugal
18.12.25	Porto - Famalicão	4:1 ✺
Liga Portugal
15.12.25	Porto - Estrela da Amadora	3:1 ✺
UEFA Europa League
11.12.25	Porto - Malmö	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.2 WWWWW

Latest Head to Head

Liga Portugal
26.01.25	Porto - Santa Clara	1:1
16.08.24	Santa Clara - Porto	0:2
Taça de Portugal
29.02.24	Santa Clara - Porto	1:2
Liga Portugal
15.04.23	Porto - Santa Clara	2:1
29.10.22	Santa Clara - Porto	1:1
04.04.22	Porto - Santa Clara	3:0
07.11.21	Santa Clara - Porto	0:3

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