Match Info

Torneo Federal - Round 17

Date: 11 July 2026, Saturday

Location: Estadio Municipal Gral. San Martin (Tandil)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	LPF Play


	Santamarina de Tandil		Alvarado

	1	X	2
	5.25	3.00	1.66
	4.60	2.90	1.82
	5.65	3.08	1.64
	4.48	2.89	2	Watch
	5.40	3.05	1.70
	5.46	3.12	1.77	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	5.14 ↑ (3.15)	3.01 ↑ (2.7)	1.77 ↓ (2.35)

The most likely Over/Under: 1.75

The best margin for this event is 6.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Santamarina de Tandil
17.8%

Draw
30.4%

Alvarado
51.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

28.5%

33.3%

38.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

28.8%

33.7%

37.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Santamarina de Tandil has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-10.7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Santamarina de Tandil's form might have worsened.

Alvarado has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+13.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Alvarado's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Santamarina de Tandil than the current prediction. (+11%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Santamarina de Tandil, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Alvarado than the current prediction. (-14%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Alvarado, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Santamarina de Tandil - Alvarado Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Moris U. (G) 7. Beloqui J. 8. Benitez M. 11. Devesa A. 2. Dominguez L. 3. Ferrari T. 5. Igartua N. 4. Labaroni M. 6. Lucero I. 9. Romero T. 10. Sosa D.	1. Bilbao E. (G) 4. Berra T. 11. Castellano A. 7. Federico T. 3. Fernandez T. 2. Gorgerino C. 8. Hofstetter P. J. 10. Makarte R. 6. Nunez L. 5. Perez M. 9. Sosa G.
Substitutes
17. Chavez T. 14. Di Carlo R. 20. Istillarte J. 16. Meza F. 19. Perez F. 12. Ramil L. 13. Romat N. 18. San Martin B. 15. Sposato T.	20. Cervera G. 15. Chiozza L. 14. Cortadi A. 19. Melean A. 18. Miori M. 17. Pinoni F. 13. Radetich F. 16. Speck N. 12. Zapata A. (G)

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
28', 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
73', 🟨,

Preview

This match will feature an outsider and one of the leaders (ranked 8 in the zone Torneo Federal (Losers stage: ) and 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Torneo Federal (Winners stage: )).

Santamarina is going through a rough patch (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Alvarado is in very good shape now (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Alvarado may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Alvarado is a strong favorite.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Santamarina won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 0:6. (average 0:3).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Santamarina de Tandil
Argentinian Torneo Federal
28.06.26	Germinal - Santamarina de Tandil	1:0 ✺
20.06.26	Santamarina de Tandil - Villa Mitre	0:2 ✺
14.06.26	Círculo Deportivo - Santamarina de Tandil	0:0 ✺
07.06.26	Santamarina de Tandil - Kimberley de Mar del Plata	1:0 ✺
31.05.26	Sol de Mayo - Santamarina de Tandil	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.9 LLTWL
- CA Alvarado
Argentinian Torneo Federal
05.07.26	Alvarado - Germinal	5:0 ✺
28.06.26	Villa Mitre - Alvarado	1:0 ✺
20.06.26	Alvarado - Círculo Deportivo	1:0 ✺
14.06.26	Kimberley de Mar del Plata - Alvarado	2:2 ✺
07.06.26	Alvarado - Sol de Mayo	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6 WLWTW

Latest Head to Head

Argentinian Torneo Federal
10.05.26	Alvarado - Santamarina de Tandil	3:0
Argentinian Primera Nacional
16.04.22	Alvarado - Santamarina de Tandil	3:0

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