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Current Win Probability
Santiago Wanderers 34.5%
Draw 28.9%
Deportes La Serena 36.6%
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
41.2%
28.1%
30.7%
Our Initial ML Estimation
42.9%
27%
29.5%
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Santiago Wanderers has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.7%)
Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Santiago Wanderers's form might have worsened.
Deportes La Serena has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.9%)
Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Deportes La Serena's recent form is better than expected.
ML Model estimates a higher probability for Santiago Wanderers than the current prediction. (+8.4%)
Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Santiago Wanderers, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.
ML Model estimates a lower probability for Deportes La Serena than the current prediction. (-7.1%)
Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Deportes La Serena, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.
Who will win by Users?
1
X
2
44.4%
55.6%
0%
Santiago Wanderers - Deportes La Serena Predictions
Users Predictions:
9 users predict this event. Santiago Wanderers will win (votes: 4 - 44.4%). It will Tie (votes: 5 - 55.6%). Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 23.1% – 88.1%.
Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 6 Selected Experts predict this event. Santiago Wanderers (votes: 2 - 33.3%). Tie (votes: 4 - 66.7%).
Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:
Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 7 Selected Experts predict this event. Santiago Wanderers (votes: 2 - 28.6%). Deportes La Serena (votes: 1 - 14.3%). Tie (votes: 4 - 57.1%).
Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1
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Lineups
Starting Lineups
1. Miranda E. (G) 17. Herrera A. 4. Espinoza V. 23. Gonzalez V. 6. Torres Quintana D. 29. Gatica J. 5. Navarro L. 8. Pereyra J. 10. Luna J. 21. Duma J. 30. Espinoza E.
1. Sanhueza Mora E. A. (G) 4. Rojas J. 2. Zanini A. 5. Alarcon L. 8. Rivera M. 18. Gallegos S. 6. Diaz S. 14. Chamorro F. 23. Pinto M. 10. Vargas J. (C) 7. Jara Gonzalez G. A.
Substitutes
19. Arias D. 13. Cubillos F. 3. Margas L. 12. Martinez B. (G) 9. Monreal J. 7. Opazo D. 16. Parra R. 20. Silva J. 11. Valladares J.
12. Cerda F. (G) 33. Cordero D. 19. Cortes M. 3. Ferreyra N. 40. Herrera E. 29. Jhonatan Kauan 22. Ovando L. 21. Ramirez M. 15. Villarroel M.
Coaches
Sorace D.
Paulucci C.
Key Events of the Match
1st Half (1 - 3)
11', Espinoza V. 🟨,
14', 0 - 1, Vargas J. (Pen),
15', 1 - 1, Espinoza E. ⚽, Duma J. (A),
18', Herrera A. 🟨,
33', 1 - 2, Chamorro F. ⚽, Vargas J. (A),
35', Pinto M. 🟨,
36', 1 - 3, Jara Gonzalez G. A. ⚽, Vargas J. (A),
37', Sanhueza Mora E. A. 🟨,
40', Torres Quintana D. 🟨,
45+2', Navarro L. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 2)
46', Herrera A. ↓, Margas L. ↑,
46', Valladares J. ↓, Torres Quintana D. ↑,
62', Margas L. 🟨,
65', 1 - 4, Pinto M. ⚽,
68', Pinto M. ↓, Herrera E. ↑,
68', Pereyra J. ↓, Monreal J. ↑,
68', Gonzalez V. ↓, Silva J. ↑,
68', Duma J. ↓, Cubillos F. ↑,
75', Vargas J. ↓, Villarroel M. ↑,
75', Jara Gonzalez G. A. ↓, Ramirez M. ↑,
75', Diaz S. ↓, Ovando L. ↑,
79', Rivera M. 🟨,
86', Rivera M. ↓, Cortes M. ↑,
88', 1 - 5, Gallegos S. ⚽, Ramirez M. (A),
89', Ramirez M. 🟨,
Preview
1st leg result: 2-4. 2nd leg.
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Santiago Wanderers won 2.
Santiago Wanderers is in very good shape right now (last 5 games: 3 wins).
Deportes La Serena's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).
Santiago Wanderers may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
Recently, Santiago Wanderers has had a series of away games.
In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.
In the last 17 head-to-head matches, Santiago Wanderers won 4 matches, drew 7 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 19:23. (average 1.1:1.4).
Including home matches between the teams, Santiago Wanderers won 3 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 12:8. (average 1.5:1).
Watch
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Miranda E. (G) 
Navarro L. 
Pereyra J. 
Jhonatan Kauan 
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