Match Info

Liga de Ascenso - Round 16

Date: 12 July 2025, Saturday

Location: Estadio Ester Roa (Concepción)


	Universidad de Concepción		Santiago Wanderers

	1	X	2
	2.1	2.95	3.2
	2.25	2.88	3.35
	2.23	2.88	3.53
				Watch
	2.1	3.1	3.3
	2.12	3.25	3.31	Watch
	2.26	3.16	3.09
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.18 ↓ (2.25)	3.04 ↓ (3.16)	3.3 ↑ (3.08)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 7.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Universidad de Concepción
42.1%

Draw
30.2%

Santiago Wanderers
27.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

41%

29.1%

29.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

42.7%

30.3%

28.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Universidad de Concepción has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.1%)

Santiago Wanderers has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Universidad de Concepción than the current prediction. (+0.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Santiago Wanderers than the current prediction. (+0.9%)

Universidad de Concepción - Santiago Wanderers Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.25 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
17. Campestrini C. (G) 3. Meza I. 14. Medina C. 15. Oyanedel Hernandez Y. A. 18. Ubal B. 8. Romo J. 10. Fuentealba J. 16. Ogaz B. 7. Molina S. (C) 11. Gonzalez I. 28. Herrera I.	1. Miranda E. (G) 18. Felipe S. 23. Gonzalez V. 6. Torres Quintana D. 17. Herrera A. 5. Navarro L. 8. Pereyra J. 29. Gatica J. 30. Espinoza E. 10. Luna J. 27. Cuadra M.
Substitutes
2. Bejar L. 21. Benitez F. 6. Cordero R. 20. Molina L. 19. Olivares Alvarez R. I. 22. Rojas L. 13. Sanhueza J. (G)	4. Espinoza V. 3. Margas L. 12. Martinez B. (G) 9. Monreal J. 7. Opazo D. 16. Parra R. 11. Valladares J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 2)
17', 0 - 1, Espinoza E. ⚽,
21', Ubal B. 🟨,
34', 0 - 2, Cuadra M. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Fuentealba J. ↓, Benitez F. ↑,
48', Herrera A. 🟨,
48', Gonzalez I. 🟨,
50', 🟨,
55', Cuadra M. ↓, Valladares J. ↑,
58', 0 - 3, Valladares J. ⚽,
62', Medina C. ↓, Bejar L. ↑,
62', Herrera I. ↓, Rojas L. ↑,
62', Molina S. ↓, Olivares Alvarez R. I. ↑,
65', Romo J. ↓, Molina L. ↑,
70', Molina L. 🟨,
81', Torres Quintana D. 🟥,
84', Espinoza E. ↓, Monreal J. ↑,
84', Luna J. ↓, Espinoza V. ↑,
86', Gatica J. ↓, Parra R. ↑,
90+2', Valladares J. 🟨,

Preview

One of the most interesting matches of the day, featuring two top-table teams (ranked 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga de Primera (Promotion ~ Play Offs: Quarter~finals) and 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga de Primera (Promotion ~ Play Offs: Quarter~finals)).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Uni de Concepción won 0.

Currently, both teams are in excellent shape.

Uni de Concepción may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Uni de Concepción will hold a modest advantage in this match.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Uni de Concepción won 4 matches, drew 9 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 17:26. (average 0.9:1.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Uni de Concepción won 3 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 11:17. (average 1.1:1.7).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Universidad de Concepción
Chilean Liga de Ascenso
05.07.25	Universidad de Concepción - Deportes Antofagasta	0:1 ✺
22.06.25	Universidad de Concepción - Deportes Copiapó	1:0 ✺
14.06.25	Deportes Temuco - Universidad de Concepción	0:0 ✺
31.05.25	Curicó Unido - Universidad de Concepción	1:2 ✺
25.05.25	Unión San Felipe - Universidad de Concepción	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.8 LWTWW
- Santiago Wanderers
Chilean Cup
09.07.25	Deportes La Serena - Santiago Wanderers	4:2 ✺
Chilean Liga de Ascenso
05.07.25	Santiago Wanderers - Curicó Unido	2:1 ✺
Chilean Cup
30.06.25	Deportes Antofagasta - Santiago Wanderers	2:3 ✺
Chilean Liga de Ascenso
21.06.25	Deportes Magallanes - Santiago Wanderers	0:0 ✺
14.06.25	Santiago Wanderers - Cobreloa	5:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.5 LWWTW

Latest Head to Head

Chilean Liga de Ascenso
21.02.25	Santiago Wanderers - Universidad de Concepción	0:0
01.06.24	Universidad de Concepción - Santiago Wanderers	1:1
27.08.23	Santiago Wanderers - Universidad de Concepción	1:1
24.04.23	Universidad de Concepción - Santiago Wanderers	0:2
15.10.22	Universidad de Concepción - Santiago Wanderers	1:1
16.05.22	Santiago Wanderers - Universidad de Concepción	0:0
Chilean Primera Division
11.02.21	Santiago Wanderers - Universidad de Concepción	1:1

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