Match Info

BRAZIL: Serie B - Round 21

Date: 17 August 2024, Saturday

Location: Estadio Urbano Caldeira (Santos)

Referee: Daronco A. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Claro TV+, Premiere, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping
World	Amazon Prime Video


	Santos		Avaí

	1	X	2
	1.5	3.7	8	Watch
	1.5	3.6	6.75
	1.52	3.75	7
	1.52	3.84	7.75
	1.55	3.68	6.78	Watch
	1.5	3.7	7
	1.53	3.76	6.89	Watch
	1.52	3.75	7
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.52 ↑ (1.44)	3.72 ↓ (4)	7.15 ↓ (7.68)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 4.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Santos
61.7%

Draw
25.2%

Avaí
13.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

64.7%

23.2%

12.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

68.2%

22%

11.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Santos has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3%)

Avaí has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Santos than the current prediction. (+6.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Santos, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Avaí than the current prediction. (-1.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
88.9%	11.1%	0%

Santos - Avaí Predictions

Users Predictions: Santos will win (8 of 9 users predict this - 88.89%).
Confidence interval (95%): 68.36% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
77. Gabriel Brazao (G) 29. Rodrigo Ferreira 4. Gil 32. Jair 31. Escobar G. 5. Joao Schmidt 21. Diego Pituca (C) 37. Serginho 22. Otero R. 11. Guilherme 9. Furch J.	31. Cesar Augusto (G) 82. Gustavo Talles 3. Tiago Pagnussat 14. Vilar 33. Mario Sergio 6. Willian Maranhao 21. Pedro Castro 77. Ze Ricardo 8. Giovanni 11. Mauricio Garcez 9. Vagner Love (C)
Substitutes
2. Alex Nascimento 81. Arce B. 12. Diogenes (G) 3. Hayner 15. Joao Basso 88. Patrick 7. Pedrinho 8. Rincon T. 23. Sandry 33. Souza 30. Villarreal A. 42. Weslley Patati	5. Alan 89. Cassiano 80. Gabriel Barros 1. Igor Bohn (G) 29. Jean Lucas 19. Joao Paulo 95. Jonathan Costa 93. Judson 2. Kevin 25. Natanael 28. Ronaldo Henrique
Coaches
Fabio Carille	Moreira E.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
38', 0 - 1, Giovanni ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
65', Cesar Augusto 🟨,
65', Otero R. ↓, Weslley Patati ↑,
65', Serginho ↓, Arce B. ↑,
71', Giovanni ↓, Joao Paulo ↑,
71', Willian Maranhao ↓, Ronaldo Henrique ↑,
77', Rodrigo Ferreira ↓, Hayner ↑,
77', Joao Schmidt ↓, Villarreal A. ↑,
80', Jair ↓, Joao Basso ↑,
82', Ronaldo Henrique 🟨,
85', Vagner Love ↓, Natanael ↑,
90+6', Pedro Castro ↓, Judson ↑,

Preview

During this match we will see a game between leader and a team of mid-table (ranked 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie A and 10).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Santos won 3.

Santos is in a very good shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Recent matches Avaí is playing uncertain (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Avaí could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

In this match Santos is the unquestionable favorite.

There will not play in Santos: Aderlan (Injury) Giuliano (Injury) Kevyson (Injury) Rodrigo Falcao (Injury)

Last 9 head-to-head matches Santos won 4 matches, drawn 4 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 15-8.

Including matches at home between the teams Santos won 2 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 10-5.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Santos FC
Brazilian Serie B
09.08.24	Paysandu - Santos	0:3 ✺
02.08.24	Santos - Sport Recife	1:1 ✺
28.07.24	CRB Maceio - Santos	1:1 ✺
22.07.24	Santos - Coritiba	4:0 ✺
18.07.24	Vila Nova - Santos	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.5 WTTWT
- Avaí
Brazilian Serie B
09.08.24	Avaí - Operário Ferroviario	1:0 ✺
04.08.24	Ponte Preta - Avaí	1:0 ✺
30.07.24	Avaí - Botafogo SP	1:1 ✺
23.07.24	Mirassol - Avaí	0:0 ✺
19.07.24	Avaí - Ceará	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.2 WLTTL

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie B
26.04.24	Avaí - Santos	0:2
Brazilian Serie A
05.11.22	Santos - Avaí	1:1
16.07.22	Avaí - Santos	1:0
06.11.19	Avaí - Santos	1:2
28.07.19	Santos - Avaí	3:1
03.12.17	Santos - Avaí	1:1
06.08.17	Avaí - Santos	0:0

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