Match Info

SOUTH AMERICA: COPA SUDAMERICANA - GROUP STAGE - ROUND 5

Date: 6 June 2023, Tuesday

Location: Estadio Urbano Caldeira (Santos)

Referee: Valenzuela J. (Ven)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	ESPN 4
Portugal	Sport TV3


	Santos		Newells Old Boys

	1	X	2
	2.15	3.1	3.8	Watch
	2.1	2.8	4.1
	2.14	2.95	3.9
	2.15	2.92	4.2
	2.1	2.7	4
	2.13	2.91	4.05	Watch
	2.13	2.85	3.8
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.13 ↑ (2.1)	2.89 ↓ (3.05)	3.98 ↑ (3.84)

The most likely Over/Under: 1.75

The best margin for this event is 4.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Santos
44%

Draw
32.4%

Newells Old Boys
23.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

44.7%

30.8%

24.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

46.4%

32%

23.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Santos has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.7%)

Newells Old Boys has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Santos than the current prediction. (+2.4%)

The ML Model estimate for Newells Old Boys aligns with the current prediction.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
47.1%	41.2%	11.8%

Santos - Newells Old Boys Predictions

Users Predictions: 17 users predict this event. Santos will win (votes: 8 - 47.1%). Newells Old Boys will win (votes: 2 - 11.8%). It will Tie (votes: 7 - 41.2%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Santos: 23.4% – 70.8%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
34. Joao Paulo (G) 22. Nathan 2. Luiz Felipe 24. Messias 44. Lucas Pires 5. Alison 19. Dodi 20. Mendoza S. 23. Lucas Lima 10. Soteldo Y. 9. Marcos Leonardo	1. Hoyos L. (G) 6. Mosquera J. 42. Ortiz G. 4. Ditta W. 15. Pitton B. 7. Gomez I. 13. Sforza J. 30. Ferreira C. 18. Aguirre B. 28. Recalde J. 26. Sordo R.
Substitutes
11. Angelo Gabriel 29. Camacho 36. Deivid Washington 15. Ivonei 13. Joao Lucas 38. Kevyson 21. Lucas Barbosa 33. Maicon 14. Rodrigo Fernandez 7. Ruiz Rivera D. 1. Vladimir (G) 43. Weslley Patati	47. Balzi G. 34. Barlasina W. (G) 19. Mansilla F. 23. Martino A. 14. Mendez A. 20. Menendez J. 43. Montenegro L. S. 22. Portillo M. 16. Reasco D. 27. Tica J. 21. Vangioni L. 25. Velazquez G.
Coaches
Hellmann O.	Heinze G.

Preview

Santos is in unsatisfactory shape (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Newell's Old Boys is in a very good shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Santos could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

Santos will have a small advantage in this match.

Last 1 head-to-head matches Santos won 0 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 0-1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Santos FC
Brazilian Serie A
03.06.23	Santos - Internacional RS	1:1 ✺
Copa do Brasil
31.05.23	Bahia - Santos	2:1 penalties ✺
Brazilian Serie A
28.05.23	Red Bull Bragantino - Santos	2:0 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
24.05.23	Audax Italiano - Santos	2:1 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
20.05.23	Santos - Palmeiras	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.8 TLLLT
- Newells Old Boys
Argentinian Liga Profesional
01.06.23	Sarmiento de Junín - Newells Old Boys	0:0 ✺
28.05.23	Newells Old Boys - Godoy Cruz	2:0 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
24.05.23	Blooming - Newells Old Boys	2:3 ✺
Argentinian Liga Profesional
20.05.23	Lanús - Newells Old Boys	1:0 ✺
13.05.23	Newells Old Boys - Arsenal Sarandí	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.6 TWWLW

Latest Head to Head

Copa Sudamericana
02.05.23	Newells Old Boys - Santos	1:0

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