Match Info

USL League One

Date: 10 October 2026, Saturday 🏁 Finished

Location: Premier Sports Campus (Lakewood Ranch, FL) 🌤️ ...

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Argentina	20:30	Disney+
Brazil	20:30	Disney+
Chile	20:30	Disney+
Colombia	18:30	Disney+
Mexico	17:30	Disney+
Peru	18:30	Disney+
Uruguay	20:30	Disney+
Usa	19:30	ESPN App, ESPN+
Venezuela	19:30	Disney+


	Sarasota Paradise		Richmond Kickers

	1	X	2
				Watch
	1.39	4.60	5.50
	1.38	4.50	6.00
	1.43	4.86	5.90
	1.5	4.62	5.4	Watch
	1.46	4.55	5.35
	1.44	4.75	6.07	Watch
	1.38	4.50	5.80
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.43 ↓ (1.61)	4.63 ↑ (3.8)	5.72 ↑ (4.3)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.25

The best margin for this event is 6.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Sarasota Paradise
64.2%

Draw
19.8%

Richmond Kickers
16%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

55.6%

23.6%

20.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

58.8%

22.3%

19.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Sarasota Paradise has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Sarasota Paradise's performance.

Richmond Kickers has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Sarasota Paradise than the current prediction. (-5.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Sarasota Paradise that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Richmond Kickers than the current prediction. (+3.7%)

Sarasota Paradise - Richmond Kickers Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Sutton A. (G) 24. Kiingi K. 4. Watters D. (C) 5. Sogaard A. 36. Rosa A. 28. Gall R. 16. Rodriguez A. 46. Roed S. 8. Walker A. 7. Bryant E. 17. Bolanos J.	35. Sneddon J. (G) 2. Barnathan D. 22. Vinberg S. 44. Gallegos A. 45. Hanson H. 18. Amer A. 10. Seufert N. (C) 99. Moore D. 23. Freeman T. 70. Lucca Dourado 11. Pannholzer T.
Substitutes
23. Amedeka R. (G) 50. Brulinski D. 2. Burlew R. 60. McGurk M. 19. McLaughlin G. 27. O'Dwyer C. 52. Sanchez K. 32. Terzaghi E. 3. Valentine R.	3. Anderson H. 32. Bolduc M. 1. Fillion Y. (G) 7. Johnson L. 4. Layton S. 6. Sasankhah A. 14. Vazquez Z.
Coaches
Elovaara M.	Ownby B.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 2)
23', 0 - 1, Lucca Dourado ⚽, Pannholzer T. (A),
29', 0 - 2, Amer A. ⚽, Lucca Dourado (A),
36', 1 - 2, Kiingi K. ⚽, Bryant E. (A),
45+4', Pannholzer T. 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 0)
46', Rodriguez A. ↓, Terzaghi E. ↑,
50', Bolanos J. ↓, Brulinski D. ↑,
54', 2 - 2, Gall R. ⚽,
61', Barnathan D. ↓, Layton S. ↑,
61', Layton S. 🟨,
61', Hanson H. ↓, Bolduc M. ↑,
67', Vinberg S. 🟨,
68', Amer A. ↓, Sasankhah A. ↑,
73', Brulinski D. 🟨,
78', Gallegos A. 🟨,
80', Roed S. ↓, McLaughlin G. ↑,
85', Terzaghi E. (Penalty Awarded),
85', 3 - 2, Terzaghi E. ⚽,
86', Freeman T. ↓, Vazquez Z. ↑,
86', Terzaghi E. 🟨,
87', Lucca Dourado ↓, Johnson L. ↑,
90+2', Kiingi K. ↓, Valentine R. ↑,
90+2', Gall R. ↓, Burlew R. ↑,

Preview

A clash between a stable mid-table side and a team seeking crucial survival points (ranked 12th and 17th).

Sarasota Paradise has experienced an up-and-down run in recent matches (last 5 matches: 2 wins).

Richmond Kickers is experiencing a dip in performance (last 5 matches: 1 win).

Sarasota Paradise could enjoy a physical edge thanks to more rest days ahead of this match.

In this matchup, Sarasota Paradise is considered the favorite to take the win.

In the last 1 head-to-head meeting, Sarasota Paradise has recorded 0 wins, 1 draw, and 0 losses, with a goal aggregate of 0:0.

Standings

Main

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
11	Sarasota Paradise	32	11	7	14	49:51	-2	40
17	Richmond Kickers	32	7	5	20	37:65	-28	26

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Sarasota Paradise
USL League One
03.10.26	Sarasota Paradise - Charlotte Independence	2:3 ✺
26.09.26	Portland Hearts of Pine - Sarasota Paradise	1:4 ✺
19.09.26	Sarasota Paradise - Greenville Triumph	6:0 ✺
12.09.26	Forward Madison - Sarasota Paradise	1:1 ✺
05.09.26	Sarasota Paradise - Spokane Velocity	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16.3 LWWTT
- Richmond Kickers
USL League One
07.10.26	Naples - Richmond Kickers	2:0 ✺
03.10.26	Richmond Kickers - One Knoxville	3:2 ✺
27.09.26	New York Cosmos - Richmond Kickers	3:2 ✺
19.09.26	Richmond Kickers - Charlotte Independence	1:2 ✺
16.09.26	Westchester SC - Richmond Kickers	5:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.5 LWLLL

Latest Head to Head

USL League One
03.07.26	Richmond Kickers - Sarasota Paradise	0:0

Sarasota Paradise - Richmond Kickers