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Current Win Probability
Semen Padang 32.6%
Draw 27.6%
Madura United 39.8%
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
41.8%
28.6%
29.6%
Our Initial ML Estimation
44%
27.2%
28.1%
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Semen Padang has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-9.2%)
Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Semen Padang's form might have worsened.
Madura United has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+10.2%)
Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Madura United's recent form is better than expected.
ML Model estimates a higher probability for Semen Padang than the current prediction. (+11.4%)
Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Semen Padang, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.
ML Model estimates a lower probability for Madura United than the current prediction. (-11.7%)
Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Madura United, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.
Semen Padang - Madura United Predictions
Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1
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Lineups
Starting Lineups
1. Augusto A. (G) 2. Tsouka R. 4. Giraldo J. 5. Gufron A. (C) 3. Kristiano A. 63. Wahyudi R. 21. Diarra B. 22. Botan K. 10. Froese K. 15. Juliansyah F. 9. Guillermo
21. Diky M. (G) 6. Ruxi 3. Monteiro P. 15. Numberi G. 77. Alesandro F. 10. Iran Junior 5. Palic K. 11. Lulinha (C) 9. Junior Brandao 4. Wehrmann J. 68. Rusadi A.
Substitutes
25. Afandi Z. 26. Agong W. 8. Ariansyah R. 113. Azhhari G. 89. Bachtiar A. (G) 13. Diego Mauricio 17. Maicon Souza 27. Oscario R. (G) 14. Saputra D. 121. Sentosa A. 31. Setiawan R.
23. Emerson Souza 26. Harlan A. (G) 45. Hidayat T. 36. Ilhamsyah 99. Kusuma A. 24. Muslihuddin T. 7. Nufiandani A. 19. Riquelme 12. Rizki F. 2. Sasongko N. 17. Sitanggang P.
Coaches
Nahumarury I.
Basuki R.
Key Events of the Match
1st Half (0 - 1)
15', 0 - 1, Junior Brandao ⚽, Alesandro F. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Lulinha ↓, Nufiandani A. ↑,
46', Giraldo J. ↓, Ariansyah R. ↑,
46', Augusto A. ↓, Oscario R. ↑,
54', Guillermo 🟨,
63', Botan K. ↓, Maicon Souza ↑,
63', Diarra B. ↓, Setiawan R. ↑,
79', Junior Brandao ↓, Riquelme ↑,
79', Numberi G. ↓, Sasongko N. ↑,
80', Juliansyah F. ↓, Agong W. ↑,
82', Tsouka R. 🟨,
85', Riquelme 🟨,
87', Iran Junior ↓, Emerson Souza ↑,
90+4', Gufron A. 🟨,
90+7', Wehrmann J. ↓, Sitanggang P. ↑,
Preview
In this match, only outsiders will meet (ranked 17 in the zone Relegation and 16 in the zone Relegation).
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Semen Padang won 2.
Semen Padang has been struggling lately (last 5 games: 1 wins).
Madura United's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).
In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.
In the last 9 head-to-head matches, Semen Padang won 3 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 10:18. (average 1.1:2).
Including home matches between the teams, Semen Padang won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 6:4. (average 1.5:1).
Indonesia
Watch
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Augusto A. (G) 
Tsouka R. 
Giraldo J. 
Gufron A. (C) 
Diarra B. 
Froese K. 
Guillermo 
Monteiro P. 
Palic K. 
Wehrmann J. 
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