Match Info

Premier League - Round 16

Date: 11 January 2026, Sunday

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	Azam Sports 3


	Tusker		AFC Leopards

	1	X	2
	2.98	2.68	2.48
	3.18	2.54	2.6	Watch
	3	2.5	2.5
	3	2.84	2.53
	3.2	2.4	2.62
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.07 ↑ (2.46)	2.59 ↓ (2.8)	2.55 ↓ (3.04)

The most likely Over/Under: 1.75

The best margin for this event is 8.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Tusker
29.5%

Draw
34.9%

AFC Leopards
35.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

37.2%

32.7%

30.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

37.1%

32.8%

30.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Tusker has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Tusker's form might have worsened.

AFC Leopards has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.5%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting AFC Leopards's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Tusker than the current prediction. (+7.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Tusker, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for AFC Leopards than the current prediction. (-5.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for AFC Leopards, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Tusker - AFC Leopards Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 2)
13', 0 - 1, Ssenyonjo S. ⚽,
23', 0 - 2, Ssenyonjo S. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 2)
48', 0 - 3, ⚽,
72', 0 - 4, ⚽,

Preview

One of the most interesting matches of the day, featuring two top-table teams (ranked 4 and 1 in the zone Promotion ~ CAF Champions League (Qualification: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Tusker won 2.

Currently, both teams are in excellent shape.

Tusker may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Tusker won 11 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 25:15. (average 1.3:0.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Tusker won 7 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 13:5. (average 1.3:0.5).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
3	Tusker	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0
5	Leopards	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0

Last Results with these Odds

AFC Leopards - the odds 3.04 are the expected chance of winning is 30.11%, but this team recently wins 75% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Tusker
Kenyan Premier League
21.12.25	APS Bomet - Tusker	0:1 ✺
17.12.25	Tusker - Nairobi United	0:1 ✺
14.12.25	Sofapaka - Tusker	0:2 ✺
05.12.25	Tusker - Ulinzi Stars	1:0 ✺
29.11.25	Mara Sugar - Tusker	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.3 WLWWW
- AFC Leopards
Kenyan Premier League
07.01.26	Nairobi United - AFC Leopards	0:2 ✺
04.01.26	AFC Leopards - Kakamega Homeboyz	0:1 ✺
23.12.25	Bidco United - AFC Leopards	0:1 ✺
18.12.25	AFC Leopards - Ulinzi Stars	2:1 ✺
13.12.25	Police FC - AFC Leopards	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.9 WLWWT

Latest Head to Head

Kenyan Premier League
03.05.25	Tusker - AFC Leopards	0:0
11.12.24	AFC Leopards - Tusker	4:1
10.03.24	Tusker - AFC Leopards	1:0
04.12.23	AFC Leopards - Tusker	0:0
05.04.23	AFC Leopards - Tusker	0:1
04.12.22	Tusker - AFC Leopards	1:0
24.04.22	Tusker - AFC Leopards	2:1

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