Match Info

Conference League - Play Offs - 1/8-finals

Date: 19 March 2026, Thursday

Location: Synerise Arena - Stadion Miejski im. Henryka Reymana (Kraków)

Referee: van der Eijk S. (Ned)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Shakhtar Donetsk		Lech Poznań

	1	X	2
	2.2	3.6	3.1
	2.22	3.55	2.98
	2.3	3.72	3.19
	2.2	3.77	3.22	Watch
	2.15	3.3	3
	2.13	3.61	3.27
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.2 ↑ (1.97)	3.59 ↓ (3.77)	3.13 ↓ (3.58)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 1.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Shakhtar Donetsk
43.2%

Draw
26.4%

Lech Poznań
30.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

48.2%

25.2%

26.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

48.7%

24.9%

26.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Shakhtar Donetsk has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5%)

Lech Poznań has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Shakhtar Donetsk than the current prediction. (+5.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Shakhtar Donetsk, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Lech Poznań than the current prediction. (-4.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
80.8%	11.5%	7.7%

Shakhtar Donetsk - Lech Poznań Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

TQ, OT - Shakhtar (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 1 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Shakhtar Donetsk will win (41 of 51 users predict this - 80.39%).
Confidence interval (95%): 69.49% – 91.29%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Shakhtar Donetsk will win (9 of 10 users predict this - 90%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 11 Selected Experts predict this event. Shakhtar (votes: 10 - 90.9%). Lech (votes: 1 - 9.1%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
31. Riznyk D. (G) 17. Tobias V. 18. Ghram A. 4. Marlon 13. Henrique P. 29. Nazaryna Y. 30. Alisson 10. Pedrinho (C) 27. Ocheretko O. 11. Newerton 19. Kaua Elias	41. Mrozek B. (G) 20. Gumny R. 27. Monka W. 16. Milic A. 4. Moutinho J. 43. Kozubal A. 23. Thordarson G. 88. Ismaheel T. 99. Rodriguez P. 77. Palma L. 9. Ishak M. (C)
Substitutes
16. Azarovi I. 21. Bondarenko A. 7. Eguinaldo 23. Fesyun K. (G) 14. Isaque Silva 26. Konoplya Y. 49. Luca Meirelles 37. Lucas Ferreira 68. Obah P. 9. Shved M. 2. Traore L. 48. Tvardovskyi D. (G)	7. Agnero Y. 1. Andreev P. (G) 14. Bengtsson L. 53. Dudek S. 8. Gholizadeh A. 15. Gurgul M. 6. Ouma T. 2. Pereira J. 33. Pruchniewski M. (G) 72. Skrzypczak M. 10. Walemark P.
Coaches
Turan A.	Frederiksen N.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 2)
13', 0 - 1, Ishak M. ⚽, Ismaheel T. (A),
45+7', 0 - 2, Ishak M. (Penalty Awarded),
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Gumny R. ↓, Pereira J. ↑,
49', Ghram A. 🟨,
62', Nazaryna Y. ↓, Isaque Silva ↑,
67', 1 - 2, Moutinho J. (Own goal),
68', Palma L. ↓, Bengtsson L. ↑,
68', Ismaheel T. ↓, Gholizadeh A. ↑,
77', Rodriguez P. ↓, Walemark P. ↑,
81', Kaua Elias ↓, Traore L. ↑,
81', Alisson ↓, Lucas Ferreira ↑,
83', Thordarson G. ↓, Agnero Y. ↑,
85', Newerton ↓, Eguinaldo ↑,
90+1', Turan A. 🟨,

Preview

First leg result: 3-1. Second leg. Playing home matches at a different stadium - Synerise Arena - Stadion Miejski im. Henryka Reymana.

Shakhtar is currently enjoying a strong run with several victories in a row (last 5 games: 5 wins).

Lech has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Shakhtar could have a small edge in this match.

There will not play in Shakhtar: Bondar V. (Yellow Cards) Khromey M. (Inactive) Kornienko V. (Inactive) Matviienko M. (Injury) Petryak I. (Inactive) Savchenko R. (Inactive) Sigeev K. (Inactive) Udod D. (Injury)

There will not play in Lech: Douglas A. (Ribs Injury) Lisman K. (Inactive) Murawski R. (Surgery)

There are questionable in Shakhtar: Kryskiv D. (Injury) Marlon Gomes (Injury)

There are questionable in Lech: Hakans D. (Inactive)

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Shakhtar won 4 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 11:3. (average 2.2:0.6).

Including home match between the teams, Shakhtar won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 1:1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Shakhtar Donetsk
Ukrainian Premier League
15.03.26	Shakhtar Donetsk - Kharkiv	1:0 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
12.03.26	Lech Poznań - Shakhtar Donetsk	1:3 ✺
Ukrainian Premier League
06.03.26	Oleksandriya - Shakhtar Donetsk	0:1 ✺
27.02.26	Shakhtar Donetsk - Veres Rivne	1:0 ✺
22.02.26	Shakhtar Donetsk - Karpaty Lviv	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.9 WWWWW
- Lech Poznań
Polish Ekstraklasa
15.03.26	Zagłębie Lubin - Lech Poznań	0:1 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
12.03.26	Lech Poznań - Shakhtar Donetsk	1:3 ✺
Polish Ekstraklasa
07.03.26	Widzew Łódź - Lech Poznań	2:1 ✺
Polish Cup
04.03.26	Lech Poznań - Górnik Zabrze	0:1 ✺
Polish Ekstraklasa
01.03.26	Lech Poznań - Raków Częstochowa	4:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4 WLLLW

Latest Head to Head

UEFA Europa Conference League
12.03.26	Lech Poznań - Shakhtar Donetsk	1:3
Club Friendly
25.01.24	Lech Poznań - Shakhtar Donetsk	1:3
21.01.21	Shakhtar Donetsk - Lech Poznań	1:1
25.01.20	Lech Poznań - Shakhtar Donetsk	0:1
31.01.19	Lech Poznań - Shakhtar Donetsk	0:3

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