Match Info

Championship - Round 21

Date: 15 December 2025, Monday

Location: Hillsborough (Sheffield)

Referee: Smith L. (Eng)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Sheffield Wednesday		Derby County

	1	X	2
	3.6	3.25	2.01	Watch
	3.54	3.35	2.12
	3.63	3.41	2.15
	3.59	3.34	2.11	Watch
	3.5	3.2	2.1
	3.54	3.24	2.1	Watch
	3.66	3.33	2.1
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.58 ↑ (3.5)	3.3 ↑ (3.25)	2.1 ↑ (2.01)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Sheffield Wednesday
26.4%

Draw
28.6%

Derby County
45%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

26.2%

28.2%

45.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

27.4%

27%

43.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Sheffield Wednesday has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.2%)

Derby County has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Sheffield Wednesday than the current prediction. (+1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Derby County than the current prediction. (-1.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
18.4%	16.3%	65.3%

Sheffield Wednesday - Derby County Predictions

Users Predictions: 48 users predict this event. Sheff Wed will win (votes: 9 - 18.8%). Derby will win (votes: 31 - 64.6%). It will Tie (votes: 8 - 16.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Derby: 51.1% – 78.1%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTTS - yes (votes: 2 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH +0.5 - Sheff Wed (1.76) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH -0.25 - Derby (1.80) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Derby County will win (13 of 16 users predict this - 81.25%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 18 Selected Experts predict this event. Sheff Wed (votes: 1 - 5.6%). Derby (votes: 14 - 77.8%). Tie (votes: 3 - 16.7%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Charles P. (G) 6. Iorfa D. 16. Cooper L. 3. Lowe M. 4. Fusire S. 17. McNeill C. 10. Bannan B. 8. Ingelsson S. 12. Amass H. 18. Cadamarteri B. 9. Lowe J.	1. Widell Zetterstrom J. (G) 6. Langas S. 28. Sanderson D. 5. Clarke M. 23. Ward J. 16. Thompson L. 42. Clark B. 3. Forsyth C. 10. Brewster R. 7. Agyemang P. 25. Brereton Diaz B.
Substitutes
33. Alao Y. 29. Brown G. 14. Chalobah N. 24. Horvath E. (G) 27. Johnson R. 22. Otegbayo G. 2. Palmer L. 37. Thornton J. 11. Ugbo I.	32. Adams E. 11. Blackett-Taylor C. 20. Elder C. 19. Jackson K. 35. Nelson C. 24. Nyambe R. 15. Salvesen L. 31. Vickers J. (G) 14. Weimann A.
Coaches
Pedersen H.	Eustace J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
32', 0 - 1, Agyemang P. ⚽, Clark B. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 2)
56', Iorfa D. 🟨,
56', Agyemang P. 🟨,
57', 0 - 2, Thompson L. ⚽, Clarke M. (A),
62', Cadamarteri B. ↓, Brown G. ↑,
62', Lowe J. ↓, Chalobah N. ↑,
62', 0 - 3, Agyemang P. ⚽,
66', Brewster R. ↓, Weimann A. ↑,
79', Lowe M. 🟨,
80', Brereton Diaz B. ↓, Jackson K. ↑,
80', Clark B. ↓, Adams E. ↑,
84', McNeill C. 🟨,
85', Ingelsson S. ↓, Ugbo I. ↑,
85', Iorfa D. ↓, Otegbayo G. ↑,
87', Amass H. 🟨,
88', Agyemang P. ↓, Salvesen L. ↑,
90+2', Amass H. ↓, Alao Y. ↑,

Preview

A mid-table team and an outsider will play in this match (ranked 24 in the zone Relegation ~ League One and 16).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Sheff Wed won 3.

Sheff Wed has suffered several defeats recently (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Derby's performance has dropped in recent matches (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Derby could have a small edge in this match.

There will not play in Sheff Wed: Bernard D. (Knee Injury) Fernandes B. (Inactive) Guilherme Siqueira (Achilles Tendon Injury) Kobacki O. (Groin Injury) Redmond N. (Inactive) Shipston R. (Muscle Injury) Weaver E. (Leg Injury)

There will not play in Derby: Beck O. (Inactive) Johnston M. (Hamstring Injury) Morris C. (Injury) Ozoh D. (Injury) Travis L. (Calf Injury)

There are questionable in Sheff Wed: Brown G. (Foot Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Sheff Wed won 6 matches, drew 7 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 22:26. (average 1.1:1.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Sheff Wed won 5 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 12:9. (average 1.2:0.9).

Last Results with these Odds

Derby County - the odds 2.01 are the expected chance of winning is 45.6%, but this team recently wins 75% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Sheffield Wednesday
English League Championship
09.12.25	Watford - Sheffield Wednesday	1:1 ✺
29.11.25	Sheffield Wednesday - Preston North End	2:3 ✺
26.11.25	Millwall - Sheffield Wednesday	1:0 ✺
23.11.25	Sheffield Wednesday - Sheffield United	0:3 ✺
08.11.25	Southampton - Sheffield Wednesday	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.2 TLLLL
- Derby County
English League Championship
10.12.25	Derby County - Millwall	1:1 ✺
06.12.25	Derby County - Leicester City	1:3 ✺
29.11.25	Middlesbrough - Derby County	2:1 ✺
25.11.25	Swansea City - Derby County	1:2 ✺
22.11.25	Derby County - Watford	2:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.3 TLLWL

Latest Head to Head

English League Championship
01.01.25	Sheffield Wednesday - Derby County	4:2
01.12.24	Derby County - Sheffield Wednesday	1:2
English League One
07.05.23	Sheffield Wednesday - Derby County	1:0
03.12.22	Derby County - Sheffield Wednesday	0:0
English League Championship
08.05.21	Derby County - Sheffield Wednesday	3:3
01.01.21	Sheffield Wednesday - Derby County	1:0
29.02.20	Sheffield Wednesday - Derby County	1:3

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