Match Info

Championship - Round 19

Date: 6 December 2025, Saturday

Location: Pride Park (Derby)

Referee: Smith J. (Eng)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Derby County		Leicester City

	1	X	2
	2.65	3.25	2.65	Watch
	2.61	3.25	2.76	Watch
	2.79	3.22	2.74
	2.67	3.28	2.67	Watch
	2.7	3	2.63
	2.89	3.3	2.62	Watch
	2.62	3.33	2.71
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.7 ↑ (2.66)	3.23 ↑ (3.19)	2.68 ↑ (2.6)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Derby County
35.2%

Draw
29.4%

Leicester City
35.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

35%

29.2%

35.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

35.6%

28.7%

35.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Derby County has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.2%)

Leicester City has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Derby County than the current prediction. (+0.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Leicester City than the current prediction. (-0.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
64.3%	21.4%	14.3%

Derby County - Leicester City Predictions

Users Predictions: 14 users predict this event. Derby will win (votes: 9 - 64.3%). Leicester will win (votes: 2 - 14.3%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 21.4%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Derby: 39.2% – 89.4%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 6 Selected Experts predict this event. Derby (votes: 4 - 66.7%). Tie (votes: 2 - 33.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Widell Zetterstrom J. (G) 6. Langas S. 28. Sanderson D. 5. Clarke M. 23. Ward J. 32. Adams E. (C) 42. Clark B. 20. Elder C. 25. Brereton Diaz B. 15. Salvesen L. 7. Agyemang P.	1. Stolarczyk J. (G) 21. Pereira R. (C) 4. Nelson B. 23. Vestergaard J. 33. Thomas L. 6. James J. 22. Skipp O. 7. Fatawu I. 14. De Cordova-Reid B. 10. Mavididi S. 9. Ayew J.
Substitutes
4. Batth D. 11. Blackett-Taylor C. 3. Forsyth C. 19. Jackson K. 35. Nelson C. 24. Nyambe R. 16. Thompson L. 31. Vickers J. (G) 14. Weimann A.	56. Aluko O. 31. Begovic A. (G) 18. Carranza J. 17. Choudhury H. 20. Daka P. 65. Evans J. 3. Faes W. 25. Page L. 39. Thomas S.
Coaches
Eustace J.	Cifuentes M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 3)
8', 0 - 1, De Cordova-Reid B. ⚽, James J. (A),
15', 0 - 2, Skipp O. ⚽,
19', Vestergaard J. 🟨,
22', Adams E. 🟨,
24', Langas S. 🟨,
31', 0 - 3, James J. ⚽, Thomas L. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Salvesen L. ↓, Weimann A. ↑,
46', Adams E. ↓, Thompson L. ↑,
63', 1 - 3, Langas S. ⚽, Ward J. (A),
64', De Cordova-Reid B. 🟨,
65', De Cordova-Reid B. ↓, Choudhury H. ↑,
66', Sanderson D. ↓, Jackson K. ↑,
66', Brereton Diaz B. ↓, Blackett-Taylor C. ↑,
77', Thompson L. 🟨,
78', Fatawu I. ↓, Daka P. ↑,
78', Ayew J. ↓, Thomas S. ↑,
87', Mavididi S. ↓, Aluko O. ↑,
87', James J. ↓, Page L. ↑,
90+1', Elder C. ↓, Nelson C. ↑,

Preview

Enjoy a game between evenly matched mid-table sides (ranked 11 and 16).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Derby won 0.

Both teams have been playing unpredictably.

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

There will not play in Derby: Beck O. (Inactive) Johnston M. (Hamstring Injury) Morris C. (Injury) Ozoh D. (Injury) Travis L. (Calf Injury)

There will not play in Leicester: Kristiansen V. (Knock) Nelson B. (Injury) Ramsey A. (Hamstring Injury) Souttar H. (Achilles Tendon Injury)

There are questionable in Derby: Brewster R. (Inactive)

There are questionable in Leicester: Faes W. (Injury) Okoli C. (Inactive) Stolarczyk J. (Groin Injury)

In the last 9 head-to-head matches, Derby won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 7 matches, and goals 9:21. (average 1:2.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Derby won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 3 matches, and goals 5:8. (average 1:1.6).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Derby County
English League Championship
29.11.25	Middlesbrough - Derby County	2:1 ✺
25.11.25	Swansea City - Derby County	1:2 ✺
22.11.25	Derby County - Watford	2:3 ✺
08.11.25	Blackburn Rovers - Derby County	1:2 ✺
04.11.25	Derby County - Hull City	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 18.3 LWLWW
- Leicester City
English League Championship
29.11.25	Leicester City - Sheffield United	2:3 ✺
25.11.25	Southampton - Leicester City	3:0 ✺
22.11.25	Leicester City - Stoke City	2:1 ✺
08.11.25	Norwich City - Leicester City	1:2 ✺
04.11.25	Leicester City - Middlesbrough	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.7 LLWWT

Latest Head to Head

Club Friendly
23.07.22	Derby County - Leicester City	1:3
English FA Cup
08.02.17	Leicester City - Derby County	3:1 ET
27.01.17	Derby County - Leicester City	2:2
English League Championship
10.01.14	Leicester City - Derby County	4:1
English League Cup
24.09.13	Leicester City - Derby County	2:1
English League Championship
17.08.13	Derby County - Leicester City	0:1
16.03.13	Derby County - Leicester City	2:1

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