Match Info

Championship - Round 17

Date: 25 November 2025, Tuesday

Location: Swansea.com Stadium (Swansea)

Referee: Kitchen A. (Eng)

Where to Watch on TV:


United-kingdom	Sky Sports+


	Swansea City		Derby County

	1	X	2
	2.1	2.95	3.7	Watch
	2.18	3.07	3.71
	2.21	3.15	3.87
	2.12	3.26	3.57	Watch
	2.18	3.06	3.55	Watch
	2.16	3.14	3.66
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.16 ↑ (2.12)	3.11 ↓ (3.26)	3.68 ↑ (3.57)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 2.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Swansea City
43.8%

Draw
30.5%

Derby County
25.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

44.6%

29%

26.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

48.2%

31.4%

24.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Swansea City has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.8%)

Derby County has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Swansea City than the current prediction. (+4.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Derby County than the current prediction. (-1.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
36.4%	31.8%	31.8%

Swansea City - Derby County Predictions

Users Predictions: 20 users predict this event. Swansea will win (votes: 8 - 40%). Derby will win (votes: 5 - 25%). It will Tie (votes: 7 - 35%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Swansea: 18.5% – 61.5%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 11 Selected Experts predict this event. Swansea (votes: 1 - 9.1%). Derby (votes: 6 - 54.5%). Tie (votes: 4 - 36.4%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +0.25 - Derby (1.90) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 13 Selected Experts predict this event. Swansea (votes: 1 - 7.7%). Derby (votes: 8 - 61.5%). Tie (votes: 4 - 30.8%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
22. Vigouroux L. (G) 2. Key J. 5. Cabango B. (C) 4. Fulton J. 15. Burgess C. 30. Galbraith E. 14. Tymon J. 35. Ronald 20. Cullen L. 10. Eom J. 9. Vipotnik Z.	1. Widell Zetterstrom J. (G) 6. Langas S. 4. Batth D. 5. Clarke M. 23. Ward J. 32. Adams E. (C) 42. Clark B. 20. Elder C. 25. Brereton Diaz B. 7. Agyemang P. 15. Salvesen L.
Substitutes
26. Casey K. 1. Fisher A. (G) 17. Franco G. 33. Idah A. 27. Inoussa Z. 21. Manuel Hedilazio B. 16. Samuels-Smith I. 6. Stamenic M. 7. Widell M.	11. Blackett-Taylor C. 37. Eames O. 3. Forsyth C. 19. Jackson K. 35. Nelson C. 24. Nyambe R. 16. Thompson L. 31. Vickers J. (G) 14. Weimann A.
Coaches
Emanuel Soares Matos V.	Eustace J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
34', 0 - 1, Ward J. ⚽, Elder C. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 1)
53', 0 - 2, Salvesen L. ⚽,
57', Cullen L. ↓, Franco G. ↑,
57', Ronald ↓, Manuel Hedilazio B. ↑,
57', Fulton J. ↓, Stamenic M. ↑,
71', Salvesen L. ↓, Jackson K. ↑,
74', Eom J. ↓, Inoussa Z. ↑,
80', Agyemang P. ↓, Weimann A. ↑,
80', Ward J. ↓, Nyambe R. ↑,
82', Brereton Diaz B. 🟨,
83', Vipotnik Z. ↓, Idah A. ↑,
90', 1 - 2, Galbraith E. ⚽,
90+4', Elder C. 🟨,

Preview

A mid-table team and an outsider will play in this match (ranked 20 and 12).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Swansea won 4.

Swansea has suffered several defeats recently (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Derby is in very good shape now (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

Swansea is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

There will not play in Derby: Nelson C. (Inactive) Sanderson D. (Yellow Cards)

There are questionable in Derby: Beck O. (Inactive) Johnston M. (Hamstring Injury) Morris C. (Injury) Travis L. (Calf Injury)

In the last 10 head-to-head matches, Swansea won 4 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 11:11. (average 1.1:1.1).

Including home matches between the teams, Swansea won 3 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 8:6. (average 1.6:1.2).

Last Results with these Odds

Swansea City - the odds 2.12 are the expected chance of winning is 44.56%, but this team recently wins 57% of matches with these odds.

Derby County - the odds 3.57 are the expected chance of winning is 26.46%, but this team recently wins 10% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Swansea City
English League Championship
22.11.25	Bristol City - Swansea City	3:0 ✺
08.11.25	Swansea City - Ipswich Town	1:4 ✺
05.11.25	Preston North End - Swansea City	2:1 ✺
01.11.25	Charlton Athletic - Swansea City	1:1 ✺
English League Cup
29.10.25	Swansea City - Manchester City	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.4 LLLTL
- Derby County
English League Championship
22.11.25	Derby County - Watford	2:3 ✺
08.11.25	Blackburn Rovers - Derby County	1:2 ✺
04.11.25	Derby County - Hull City	2:1 ✺
01.11.25	Sheffield United - Derby County	1:3 ✺
25.10.25	Derby County - Queens Park Rangers	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 23.2 LWWWW

Latest Head to Head

English League Championship
05.04.25	Swansea City - Derby County	1:0
27.11.24	Derby County - Swansea City	1:2
09.04.22	Swansea City - Derby County	2:1
02.10.21	Derby County - Swansea City	0:0
01.05.21	Swansea City - Derby County	2:1
16.12.20	Derby County - Swansea City	2:0
08.02.20	Swansea City - Derby County	2:3

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