Match Info

Championship - Round 18

Date: 29 November 2025, Saturday

Location: Riverside Stadium (Middlesbrough)

Referee: Linington J. (Eng)


	Middlesbrough		Derby County

	1	X	2
	1.71	3.6	4.75	Watch
	1.81	3.68	4.41	Watch
	1.81	3.7	4.68
	1.71	3.71	4.89	Watch
	1.75	3.48	4.81	Watch
	1.8	3.66	4.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.77 ↑ (1.71)	3.64 ↓ (3.71)	4.67 ↓ (4.89)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Middlesbrough
53.7%

Draw
26%

Derby County
20.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

55.2%

25.5%

19.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

60.5%

28%

17.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Middlesbrough has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.5%)

Derby County has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Middlesbrough than the current prediction. (+6.8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Middlesbrough, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Derby County than the current prediction. (-2.7%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
62.5%	25%	12.5%

Middlesbrough - Derby County Predictions

Users Predictions: 8 users predict this event. Middlesbrough will win (votes: 5 - 62.5%). Derby will win (votes: 1 - 12.5%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 25%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Middlesbrough: 29% – 96%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Tie (votes: 2 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DC - draw (1.99) (votes: 0 - 0%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
31. Brynn S. (G) 2. Brittain C. 5. Jones A. 3. Targett M. 24. Bangura A. 16. Browne A. 7. Hackney H. (C) 27. Hansen S. 11. Whittaker M. 10. Burgzorg D. 9. Conway T.	1. Widell Zetterstrom J. (G) 6. Langas S. 28. Sanderson D. 5. Clarke M. 23. Ward J. 42. Clark B. 32. Adams E. (C) 20. Elder C. 7. Agyemang P. 25. Brereton Diaz B. 15. Salvesen L.
Substitutes
47. Baptiste A. 14. Gilbert A. 17. Hamilton M. 8. McGree R. 33. McLaughlin J. (G) 19. Nypan S. 20. Sene M. K. 22. Silvera S. 13. Strelec D.	11. Blackett-Taylor C. 37. Eames O. 3. Forsyth C. 19. Jackson K. 35. Nelson C. 24. Nyambe R. 16. Thompson L. 31. Vickers J. (G) 14. Weimann A.
Coaches
Hellberg K.	Eustace J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
2', 0 - 1, Agyemang P. ⚽, Salvesen L. (A),
22', Clark B. 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 0)
53', Browne A. ↓, McGree R. ↑,
53', Hansen S. ↓, Strelec D. ↑,
67', Elder C. 🟨,
71', Conway T. ↓, Sene M. K. ↑,
71', Burgzorg D. ↓, Nypan S. ↑,
75', 1 - 1, Targett M. ⚽, Hackney H. (A),
79', Salvesen L. ↓, Jackson K. ↑,
80', Ward J. ↓, Nyambe R. ↑,
85', 2 - 1, Whittaker M. ⚽, Hackney H. (A),
87', Brereton Diaz B. ↓, Weimann A. ↑,
88', Clark B. ↓, Thompson L. ↑,
88', Langas S. ↓, Blackett-Taylor C. ↑,
89', Whittaker M. ↓, Baptiste A. ↑,

Preview

One of the most interesting matches of the day, featuring two top-table teams (ranked 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Championship (Play Offs: Semi~finals) and 8).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Middlesbrough won 2.

In recent matches, Middlesbrough has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Derby is in very good shape now (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

In this match, Middlesbrough is considered a favorite.

There will not play in Middlesbrough: Kante A. (Groin Injury) Lenihan D. (Achilles Tendon Injury)

There will not play in Derby: Beck O. (Inactive) Johnston M. (Hamstring Injury) Morris C. (Injury) Ozoh D. (Injury) Travis L. (Calf Injury)

There are questionable in Middlesbrough: Edmundson G. (Inactive) Fry D. (Injury) Morris A. (Injury) Strelec D. (Inactive)

There are questionable in Derby: Brewster R. (Inactive)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Middlesbrough won 8 matches, drew 6 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 26:22. (average 1.3:1.1).

Including home matches between the teams, Middlesbrough won 6 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 18:9. (average 1.8:0.9).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Middlesbrough FC
English League Championship
25.11.25	Middlesbrough - Coventry City	2:4 ✺
22.11.25	Oxford United - Middlesbrough	1:1 ✺
08.11.25	Middlesbrough - Birmingham City	2:1 ✺
04.11.25	Leicester City - Middlesbrough	1:1 ✺
01.11.25	Watford - Middlesbrough	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.5 LTWTL
- Derby County
English League Championship
25.11.25	Swansea City - Derby County	1:2 ✺
22.11.25	Derby County - Watford	2:3 ✺
08.11.25	Blackburn Rovers - Derby County	1:2 ✺
04.11.25	Derby County - Hull City	2:1 ✺
01.11.25	Sheffield United - Derby County	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 27 WLWWW

Latest Head to Head

English League Championship
01.03.25	Middlesbrough - Derby County	1:0
17.08.24	Derby County - Middlesbrough	1:0
12.02.22	Middlesbrough - Derby County	4:1
21.08.21	Derby County - Middlesbrough	0:0
13.02.21	Derby County - Middlesbrough	2:1
25.11.20	Middlesbrough - Derby County	3:0
11.01.20	Middlesbrough - Derby County	2:2

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