The best margin for this event is 3.2%, offered by
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Current Win Probability
Derby County 35.1%
Draw 30.5%
Millwall 34.4%
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
40.7%
29.5%
29.7%
Our Initial ML Estimation
41.7%
28.8%
29%
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Derby County has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.6%)
Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Derby County's form might have worsened.
Millwall has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.7%)
ML Model estimates a higher probability for Derby County than the current prediction. (+6.6%)
Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Derby County, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.
ML Model estimates a lower probability for Millwall than the current prediction. (-5.4%)
Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Millwall, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.
Who will win by Users?
1
X
2
20.7%
37.9%
41.4%
Derby County - Millwall Predictions
Users Predictions:
29 users predict this event. Derby will win (votes: 6 - 20.7%). Millwall will win (votes: 12 - 41.4%). It will Tie (votes: 11 - 37.9%). Confidence interval (95%) for Millwall: 23.5% – 59.3%.
Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:
AH -1.5 - Derby (4.97) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .
BTTS - yes (votes: 2 - 100%) .
DC - Millwall (1.46) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 11 Selected Experts predict this event. Derby (votes: 3 - 27.3%). Millwall (votes: 3 - 27.3%). Tie (votes: 5 - 45.5%).
Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1
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Lineups
Starting Lineups
1. Widell Zetterstrom J. (G) 6. Langas S. (C) 28. Sanderson D. 5. Clarke M. 20. Elder C. 23. Ward J. 16. Thompson L. 42. Clark B. 25. Brereton Diaz B. 7. Agyemang P. 14. Weimann A.
15. Crocombe M. (G) 4. Crama T. 6. Taylor C. 5. Cooper J. (C) 14. Doughty A. 10. Neghli C. 16. Kelly D. 11. Azeez F. 31. Bangura-Williams R. 7. Ballo T. 9. Ivanovic M.
Substitutes
32. Adams E. 4. Batth D. 11. Blackett-Taylor C. 10. Brewster R. 3. Forsyth C. 19. Jackson K. 35. Nelson C. 15. Salvesen L. 31. Vickers J. (G)
13. Benda S. (G) 23. Bryan J. 22. Emakhu A. 27. Grant K. 45. Harding W. 47. Howland J. 17. Langstaff M. 28. Matthews A. 2. McNamara D.
Coaches
Eustace J.
Neil A.
Key Events of the Match
1st Half (0 - 0)
3', Elder C. 🟨,
19', Thompson L. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
67', Brereton Diaz B. ↓, Salvesen L. ↑,
67', Weimann A. ↓, Brewster R. ↑,
68', Bangura-Williams R. ↓, Emakhu A. ↑,
78', Azeez F. 🟨,
81', 0 - 1, Clarke M. (Own goal),
85', Langas S. ↓, Blackett-Taylor C. ↑,
86', Elder C. ↓, Jackson K. ↑,
86', Thompson L. ↓, Adams E. ↑,
89', 1 - 1, Cooper J. (Own goal),
89', Azeez F. ↓, McNamara D. ↑,
90', Doughty A. ↓, Bryan J. ↑,
90+2', McNamara D. 🟨,
90+2', Ballo T. ↓, Langstaff M. ↑,
90+6', Langstaff M. 🟨,
Preview
A mid-table team takes on a leader in this match (ranked 15 and 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Championship (Play Offs: Semi~finals)).
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Derby won 0.
Derby has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 2 wins).
Millwall is showing top-class performance now (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).
Millwall may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.
There will not play in Derby: Beck O.
(Inactive)
Johnston M.
(Hamstring Injury)
Morris C.
(Injury)
Ozoh D.
(Injury)
Travis L.
(Calf Injury)
There will not play in Millwall: Coburn J.
(Muscle Injury)
Leonard R.
(Calf Injury)
Luongo M.
(Knee Injury)
Mazou-Sacko D.
(Knee Injury)
Smallbone W.
(Hamstring Injury)
There are questionable in Derby: Brewster R.
(Inactive)
There are questionable in Millwall: Jensen L.
(Achilles Tendon Injury)
Mitchell B.
(Hamstring Injury)
In the last 19 head-to-head matches, Derby won 5 matches, drew 6 matches, lost 8 matches, and goals 21:19. (average 1.1:1).
Including home matches between the teams, Derby won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 6 matches, and goals 5:7. (average 0.6:0.8).
Last Results with these Odds
Derby County - the odds 2.32 are the expected chance of winning is 40.74%, but this team recently wins 75% of matches with these odds.
Millwall - the odds 3.18 are the expected chance of winning is 29.72%, but this team recently wins 10% of matches with these odds.
United-kingdom
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Widell Zetterstrom J. (G) 
Langas S. (C) 
Sanderson D. 
Elder C. 
Brereton Diaz B. 
Agyemang P. 
Weimann A. 
Crocombe M. (G) 
Crama T. 
Neghli C. 
Kelly D. 
Ivanovic M. 
Adams E. 
Benda S. (G) 
Emakhu A. 
Harding W. 
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