The best margin for this event is 3.2%, offered by
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Current Win Probability
Shinnik 25.5%
Draw 28.6%
Ural 45.9%
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
28.9%
30.9%
40.2%
Our Initial ML Estimation
28.8%
30.7%
40.4%
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Shinnik has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.4%)
Ural has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.7%)
Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Ural's recent form is better than expected.
ML Model estimates a higher probability for Shinnik than the current prediction. (+3.3%)
ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ural than the current prediction. (-5.5%)
Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Ural, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.
Shinnik - Ural Predictions
Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1
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Lineups
Starting Lineups
95. Vambolt D. (G) 62. Karpov V. 27. Chernyi A. 23. Chistyakov N. 53. Kotin N. 15. Samoylov D. (C) 64. Lanin O. 17. Valiakhmetov E. 13. Yanov D. 24. Azyavin I. 10. Gongapshev A.
57. Selikhov A. (G) 24. Korotkov A. 2. Begic S. 5. Stezhko V. 16. Italo 97. Ishkov I. 44. Malkevich V. 6. Sungatulin F. (C) 22. Leo Cordeiro 99. Fourrier B. 11. Bokov D.
Substitutes
19. Arbuzov Y. 14. Kalinin G. 49. Karaev M. 33. Lavrenkov A. 7. Martovoy D. 88. Mironov D. 21. Pushkarev D. 54. Shmakov I. 66. Yanovich N. (G)
37. Bondarev V. 17. Karapuzov V. 13. Kaynov M. 59. Kharin E. 86. Kuznetsov I. (G) 18. Morozov N. 35. Prishchepa D. 10. Sekulic M. 43. Shoronov R.
Coaches
Boyarintsev D.
Yuran S.
Key Events of the Match
1st Half (0 - 0)
8', Karpov V. 🟨,
9', Italo 🟨,
11', Yanov D. 🟨,
23', Azyavin I. 🟨,
35', Valiakhmetov E. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Chistyakov N. ↓, Karaev M. ↑,
46', Yanov D. ↓, Shmakov I. ↑,
60', Samoylov D. 🟨,
62', Leo Cordeiro ↓, Bondarev V. ↑,
62', Bokov D. ↓, Sekulic M. ↑,
71', Bondarev V. 🟨,
74', 🟨,
75', Lanin O. ↓, Mironov D. ↑,
77', Korotkov A. ↓, Karapuzov V. ↑,
78', Malkevich V. ↓, Kharin E. ↑,
81', Fourrier B. ↓, Morozov N. ↑,
89', 1 - 0, Azyavin I. ⚽,
90+3', 1 - 1, Sekulic M. ⚽,
90+4', Kharin E. 🟨,
Preview
A mid-table team takes on a leader in this match (ranked 8 and 5).
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Shinnik won 1.
Shinnik is undoubtedly in great shape (last 5 games: 3 wins).
In recent matches, Ural has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins โ 2).
Ural could have a small edge in this match.
In the last 9 head-to-head matches, Shinnik won 2 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 6:10. (average 0.7:1.1).
Including home matches between the teams, Shinnik won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 4 matches, and goals 4:8. (average 0.7:1.3).
Outrights of Russian FNL for now
Ural: 7.82% Shinnik Yaroslavl: 0.78%
Standings
Pl
W
D
L
Diff
Pts
2
Ural
12
7
4
1
20:6
14
25
9
Shinnik Yaroslavl
12
3
7
2
15:13
2
16
Last Results with these Odds
Shinnik - the odds 3.15 are the expected chance of winning is 28.86%, but this team recently wins 38% of matches with these odds.
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Vambolt D. (G) 
Begic S. 
Italo 
Malkevich V. 
Fourrier B. 
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