Match Info

FRANCE: LIGUE 2 - ROUND 15

Date: 12 November 2022, Saturday

Location: Stade Auguste Bonal (Montbéliard)

Referee: Landry R. (Fra)

Where to Watch on TV:


France	Amazon Prime Video


	Sochaux		Bastia

	1	X	2
	1.9	3.2	4	Watch
	1.98	3.2	3.9
	1.9	3.3	4.1
	1.93	3.15	3.9
	1.99	3.35	4.27
	1.95	3.2	4	Watch
	1.96	3.42	3.88	Watch
	1.96	3.2	4
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.95 ↑ (1.81)	3.25 ↓ (3.27)	4.01 ↓ (4.58)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Sochaux
48%

Draw
28.7%

Bastia
23.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

51.3%

28.4%

20.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

51.4%

28.3%

20.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Sochaux has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.3%)

Bastia has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Sochaux than the current prediction. (+3.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Bastia than the current prediction. (-3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
81%	14.3%	4.8%

Sochaux - Bastia Predictions

Users Predictions: Sochaux will win (17 of 21 users predict this - 80.95%).
Confidence interval (95%): 64.15% – 97.75%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Preview

During this match we will see a game between leader and a team of mid-table (ranked 4 and 12).

Sochaux has the most likely position - 2 (14.06%), has project points - 62, has currently - 24, has a very small chance of relegated (<1%), has a chance of promoted (28%), has a small chance of win league (13%).

Bastia has the most likely position - 15 (8.33%), has project points - 47, has currently - 18, has a small chance of relegated (15%), has a very small chance of promoted (1%), has a very small chance of win league (<1%).

This event has quality 34, importance 40, match rating 37. (0-100) (fivethirtyeight.com)

Last 5 head-to-head matches Sochaux won 2.

Both teams are now playing unstable.

Sochaux could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match Sochaux is a favorite.

Last 7 head-to-head matches Sochaux won 2 matches, drawn 4 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 11-10.

Including matches at home between the teams Sochaux won 1 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 5-5.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Sochaux Montbeliard
French Ligue 2
05.11.22	Annecy - Sochaux	2:1 ✺
22.10.22	Sochaux - Quevilly	2:2 ✺
15.10.22	Metz - Sochaux	0:0 ✺
10.10.22	Sochaux - Saint-Étienne	2:1 ✺
01.10.22	Valenciennes - Sochaux	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.3 LTTWL
- SC Bastia
French Ligue 2
05.11.22	Bastia - Paris FC	0:1 ✺
Coupe De France
29.10.22	Prix-lès-Mézières - Bastia	0:1 penalties ✺
French Ligue 2
22.10.22	Guingamp - Bastia	1:1 ✺
17.10.22	Bastia - Bordeaux	1:1 ✺
08.10.22	Le Havre - Bastia	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6 LWTTL

Latest Head to Head

French Ligue 2
30.04.22	Sochaux - Bastia	2:1
11.12.21	Bastia - Sochaux	2:2
Coupe De France
19.01.16	Bastia - Sochaux	1:2
French Ligue 1
05.04.14	Bastia - Sochaux	2:2
23.11.13	Sochaux - Bastia	1:1
26.05.13	Bastia - Sochaux	0:0
11.08.12	Sochaux - Bastia	2:3

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