Match Info

Premier League - Round 6

Date: 24 August 2025, Sunday

Location: Fisht Olympic Stadium (Sochi)

Referee: Frolov A. (Rus)

Where to Watch on TV:


Asia	Q Sport Asia
Belarus	Belarus 5
Croatia	Arena Sport 8, Arena Sport 9, MAXtv To Go
Russia	Match! Premier, Match TV, Sportbox.ru
Serbia	Arena Sport 8


	Sochi		Baltika Kaliningrad

	1	X	2
	4.1	3.45	1.99
	4.04	3.49	2.08	Watch
	3.5	3.25	2.08
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.88 ↑ (3.16)	3.4 ↑ (3.37)	2.05 ↓ (2.49)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 1.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Sochi
24.8%

Draw
28.3%

Baltika Kaliningrad
46.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

31.2%

29.2%

39.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

31.7%

29.6%

39%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Sochi has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.4%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Sochi's form might have worsened.

Baltika Kaliningrad has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.3%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Baltika Kaliningrad's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Sochi than the current prediction. (+6.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Sochi, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Baltika Kaliningrad than the current prediction. (-7.9%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Baltika Kaliningrad, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
22.2%	22.2%	55.6%

Sochi - Baltika Kaliningrad Predictions

Users Predictions: 9 users predict this event. Sochi will win (votes: 2 - 22.2%). Baltika will win (votes: 5 - 55.6%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 22.2%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Baltika: 23.1% – 88.1%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Tie (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
99. Dyupin Y. (G) 82. Volkov S. 4. Litvinov V. 5. Aberdin N. 27. Zaika K. (C) 14. Kravtsov K. 6. Saavedra I. 10. Kramaric M. 8. Ignatov M. 7. Zinkovskiy A. 23. Guarirapa S.	67. Borisko M. (G) 2. Varatynov S. 16. Andrade K. (C) 4. Gassama N. 11. Kovalev Y. 17. Saus V. 10. Petrov I. 23. Beveev M. 73. Petrov M. 91. Gil B. 22. Titkov N.
Substitutes
25. Attiyat Allah Y. 59. Bart R. 37. Chirkov M. 35. Degtev A. (G) 9. Fedorov Z. 18. Korneev A. 19. Kovalenko A. 16. Mukhin M. 34. Osipov A. 1. Rudakov M. (G) 20. Vasiljev D.	26. Belikov I. 77. Civic E. 25. Filin A. 14. Kovac S. 81. Kukushkin I. (G) 44. Lyubakov E. (G) 69. Manelov I. 5. Mourid A. 40. Nikitin D. 90. Offor C. 19. Pryakhin S. 15. Yenne T.
Coaches
Moreno R.	Talalaev A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
23', Varatynov S. 🟨,
29', 0 - 1, Gil B. (Pen),
44', Petrov I. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
51', 0 - 2, Petrov I. ⚽, Gassama N. (A),
55', Kovalev Y. ↓, Manelov I. ↑,
59', Kramaric M. ↓, Kovalenko A. ↑,
59', Zinkovskiy A. ↓, Mukhin M. ↑,
59', Kravtsov K. ↓, Attiyat Allah Y. ↑,
61', Volkov S. ↓, Bart R. ↑,
65', Titkov N. ↓, Mourid A. ↑,
65', Gil B. ↓, Offor C. ↑,
72', Zaika K. 🟨,
77', Zaika K. ↓, Chirkov M. ↑,
79', Petrov I. ↓, Filin A. ↑,
79', Petrov M. ↓, Civic E. ↑,
90', Offor C. 🟨,

Preview

This match will feature an outsider and one of the leaders (ranked 16 in the zone Relegation ~ FNL and 6).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Sochi won 2.

Sochi is currently in poor form (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Baltika has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Baltika may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Baltika will hold a modest advantage in this match.

There will not play in Sochi: Marcelo Alves (Red Card) Meleshin P. (Knee Injury)

In the last 7 head-to-head matches, Sochi won 3 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 10:6. (average 1.4:0.9).

Including home matches between the teams, Sochi won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 7:2. (average 2.3:0.7).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Sochi
Russian Premier League
17.08.25	Krasnodar - Sochi	5:1 ✺
Russian Cup
13.08.25	Sochi - Krylya Sovetov	2:1 penalties ✺
Russian Premier League
10.08.25	Sochi - Dynamo Moscow	1:1 ✺
04.08.25	Rubin Kazan - Sochi	2:1 ✺
Russian Cup
29.07.25	Dynamo Moscow - Sochi	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.3 LWTLL
- Baltika Kaliningrad
Russian Premier League
16.08.25	Baltika Kaliningrad - Lokomotiv Moscow	1:1 ✺
Russian Cup
13.08.25	Lokomotiv Moscow - Baltika Kaliningrad	2:0 ✺
Russian Premier League
09.08.25	Krylya Sovetov - Baltika Kaliningrad	1:1 ✺
03.08.25	Baltika Kaliningrad - Orenburg	3:2 ✺
Russian Cup
29.07.25	Akron Tolyatti - Baltika Kaliningrad	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.2 TLTWL

Latest Head to Head

Russian FNL
13.04.25	Baltika Kaliningrad - Sochi	2:0
21.07.24	Sochi - Baltika Kaliningrad	1:1
Russian Premier League
03.03.24	Baltika Kaliningrad - Sochi	0:0
23.07.23	Sochi - Baltika Kaliningrad	2:0
Club Friendly
29.01.22	Baltika Kaliningrad - Sochi	0:1
Russian FNL
24.11.18	Sochi - Baltika Kaliningrad	4:1
12.08.18	Baltika Kaliningrad - Sochi	2:2

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