Match Info

Premier League - Round 21

Date: 14 March 2026, Saturday

Location: Fisht Olympic Stadium (Sochi)

Referee: Prokopov A. (Rus)

Where to Watch on TV:


Asia	Q Football Asia
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport 3
Croatia	Arena Sport 2, Arena Sport 3, MAXtv To Go
Kosovo	Arena Premium 3
Russia	Match! Premier, Match TV, Sportbox.ru
Serbia	Arena Premium 3


	Sochi		Krasnodar

	1	X	2
	9.89	5.53	1.33
	9.05	5.43	1.36	Watch
	6.6	4.2	1.43
Avarage Now (Initially)	8.51 ↑ (6.6)	5.05 ↑ (4.2)	1.37 ↓ (1.43)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Sochi
11.3%

Draw
19%

Krasnodar
69.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

13.9%

21.9%

64.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

14.5%

21%

61.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Sochi has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.6%)

Krasnodar has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Krasnodar's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Sochi than the current prediction. (+3.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Krasnodar than the current prediction. (-8.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Krasnodar, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Sochi - Krasnodar Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -1 - Krasnodar (1.59) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Krasnodar (votes: 2 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
35. Degtev A. (G) 4. Litvinov V. 33. Marcelo Alves 3. Soldatenkov A. 27. Zaika K. (C) 16. Mukhin M. 19. Kovalenko A. 17. Makarchuk A. 10. Kramaric M. 9. Fedorov Z. 23. Furtado G.	1. Agkatsev S. (G) 17. Paltsev V. 3. Tormena 4. Diego Costa 15. Olaza L. 88. Krivtsov N. 66. Douglas Augusto 11. Joao Batxi 10. Spertsyan E. (C) 7. Victor Sa 9. Cordoba J.
Substitutes
59. Bart R. 99. Dyupin Y. (G) 29. Ezhov R. 8. Ignatov M. 45. Kamano F. 18. Korneev A. 14. Kravtsov K. 11. Meleshin P. 85. Silev D. (G) 20. Vasiljev D. 82. Volkov S. 7. Zinkovskiy A.	23. Boselli J. 53. Chernikov A. 20. Gonzalez G. 29. Guseynov E. 59. Khmarin A. 16. Koryakin A. (G) 6. Lenini K. 30. Sadchikov S.
Coaches
Osinkin I.	Musaev M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
5', 0 - 1, Spertsyan E. ⚽, Joao Batxi (A),
7', Olaza L. 🟨,
24', Paltsev V. 🟨,
35', Zaika K. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
71', Fedorov Z. ↓, Zinkovskiy A. ↑,
71', Mukhin M. ↓, Ignatov M. ↑,
72', Furtado G. ↓, Vasiljev D. ↑,
73', Victor Sa ↓, Boselli J. ↑,
74', Krivtsov N. ↓, Chernikov A. ↑,
75', Marcelo Alves 🟨,
81', Kovalenko A. ↓, Ezhov R. ↑,
82', Boselli J. 🟨,
83', Zaika K. ↓, Volkov S. ↑,
86', Joao Batxi ↓, Gonzalez G. ↑,
88', 1 - 1, Ignatov M. ⚽, Zinkovskiy A. (A),
90+4', Vasiljev D. 🟨,
90+5', 1 - 2, Spertsyan E. (Penalty Awarded),
90+7', Spertsyan E. ↓, Lenini K. ↑,

Preview

Let's watch a game between a leader and an outsider (ranked 16 in the zone Relegation ~ FNL and 1).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Sochi won 0.

Sochi has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Krasnodar is currently in poor form (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Krasnodar may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Recently, Sochi has had a series of home games.

In this match, Krasnodar is the obvious favorite.

There will not play in Krasnodar: Petrov S. (Achilles Tendon Injury)

In the last 16 head-to-head matches, Sochi won 3 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 11 matches, and goals 17:35. (average 1.1:2.2).

Including home matches between the teams, Sochi won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 4 matches, and goals 8:12. (average 1.3:2).

Outrights of Russian Premier League for now

Krasnodar: 14.68%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
2	Krasnodar	10	6	3	1	16:10	6	21

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Sochi
Russian Premier League
07.03.26	Nizhny Novgorod - Sochi	2:1 ✺
02.03.26	Sochi - Spartak Moscow	2:3 ✺
Club Friendly
21.02.26	Sochi - Bars Karakol	3:2 ✺
15.02.26	Sochi - Rodina Moscow	1:1 ✺
09.02.26	Sochi - Surkhon Termez	Canceled ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.6 LLWT?
- FC Krasnodar
Russian Premier League
08.03.26	Rubin Kazan - Krasnodar	2:1 ✺
Russian Cup
04.03.26	CSKA Moscow - Krasnodar	3:1 ✺
Russian Premier League
28.02.26	Krasnodar - Rostov	2:1 ✺
Club Friendly
17.02.26	Krasnodar - Zenit	0:1 ✺
10.02.26	Dynamo Moscow - Krasnodar	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.6 LLWLL

Latest Head to Head

Russian Cup
23.10.25	Krasnodar - Sochi	3:0
27.08.25	Sochi - Krasnodar	2:4
Russian Premier League
17.08.25	Krasnodar - Sochi	5:1
18.05.24	Sochi - Krasnodar	2:3
30.07.23	Krasnodar - Sochi	2:0
Club Friendly
15.07.23	Krasnodar - Sochi	2:2
Russian Premier League
15.04.23	Sochi - Krasnodar	0:2

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