Match Info

Russian Cup - Play Offs - Semi-finals

Date: 4 March 2026, Wednesday

Location: VEB Arena (Moscow)

Referee: Sukhoy A. (Rus)

Where to Watch on TV:


Belarus	Belarus 5
Russia	Match! Premier, Match TV, Sportbox.ru


	CSKA Moscow		Krasnodar

	1	X	2
	2.31	3.53	3.24
	2.31	3.56	3.16	Watch
	2.65	3.3	2.55
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.42 ↓ (2.65)	3.46 ↑ (3.3)	2.98 ↑ (2.55)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 2.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

CSKA Moscow
39.8%

Draw
27.9%

Krasnodar
32.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

35.2%

28.3%

36.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

35.7%

27.9%

36.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

CSKA Moscow has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.6%)

Krasnodar has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for CSKA Moscow than the current prediction. (-4.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Krasnodar than the current prediction. (+3.8%)

CSKA Moscow - Krasnodar Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DNB - CSKA (1.77) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. CSKA (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
49. Torop V. (G) 4. Joao Victor 9. Gondou L. 17. Glebov K. 22. Gajic M. 18. Kozlov D. 31. Kislyak M. 27. Moises (C) 2. Matheus Reis 3. Krugovoy D. 10. Oblyakov I.	1. Agkatsev S. (C) 4. Diego Costa 90. Cobnan M. D. 53. Chernikov A. 23. Boselli J. 6. Lenini K. 11. Joao Batxi 59. Khmarin A. 66. Douglas Augusto 5. Jubal Junior 17. Paltsev V.
Substitutes
35. Akinfeev I. (G) 67. Badmaev M. 52. Bandikyan A. 99. Barovskiy N. (G) 79. Danilov K. 37. Henrique Carmo 90. Lukin M. 7. Matheus Alves 11. Musaev T. 20. Popovic M. 19. Ruiz D. 97. Voronov M.	27. Burkin E. 9. Cordoba J. 20. Gonzalez G. 29. Guseynov E. 34. Karpenko A. (G) 16. Koryakin A. (G) 67. Mukailov K. 15. Olaza L. 30. Sadchikov S. 10. Spertsyan E. 3. Tormena 7. Victor Sa
Coaches
Celestini F.	Musaev M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
19', Oblyakov I. (Penalty Awarded),
22', 0 - 1, Cobnan M. D. ⚽, Joao Batxi (A),
24', Lenini K. 🟨,
36', Matheus Reis 🟨,
43', Lenini K. ↓, Spertsyan E. ↑,
45+4', Gondou L. 🟨,
2nd Half (3 - 0)
46', Boselli J. ↓, Cordoba J. ↑,
46', Khmarin A. ↓, Olaza L. ↑,
54', 1 - 1, Glebov K. ⚽,
61', Cobnan M. D. ↓, Gonzalez G. ↑,
67', Paltsev V. ↓, Victor Sa ↑,
68', Gonzalez G. 🟨,
68', 2 - 1, Krugovoy D. ⚽,
70', Gajic M. 🟨,
72', Gonzalez G. 🟨,
72', Douglas Augusto 🟨,
73', Jubal Junior 🟨,
76', Kozlov D. ↓, Musaev T. ↑,
76', Gondou L. ↓, Matheus Alves ↑,
77', Chernikov A. 🟨,
83', Glebov K. ↓, Henrique Carmo ↑,
90+3', 3 - 1, Kislyak M. ⚽,

Preview

1st leg.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, CSKA won 2.

CSKA is in very good shape right now (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Krasnodar has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Krasnodar may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, CSKA won 8 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 25:18. (average 1.3:0.9).

Including home matches between the teams, CSKA won 6 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 18:7. (average 1.8:0.7).

Outrights of Russian Cup for now

Krasnodar: 16.72% CSKA Moscow: 6.97%

Last Results with these Odds

Krasnodar - the odds 2.55 are the expected chance of winning is 36.56%, but this team recently wins 13% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- CSKA Moscow
Russian Premier League
01.03.26	Akhmat Grozny - CSKA Moscow	1:0 ✺
Club Friendly
21.02.26	CSKA Moscow - Lokomotiv Moscow	3:2 ✺
18.02.26	CSKA Moscow - Rostov	3:1 ✺
10.02.26	Zenit - CSKA Moscow	2:3 penalties ✺
06.02.26	CSKA Moscow - Dynamo Moscow	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.2 LWWWT
- FC Krasnodar
Russian Premier League
28.02.26	Krasnodar - Rostov	2:1 ✺
Club Friendly
17.02.26	Krasnodar - Zenit	0:1 ✺
10.02.26	Dynamo Moscow - Krasnodar	1:0 ✺
06.02.26	Krasnodar - Zenit	3:0 ✺
03.02.26	CSKA Moscow - Krasnodar	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.5 WLLWT

Latest Head to Head

Club Friendly
03.02.26	CSKA Moscow - Krasnodar	2:2
Russian Premier League
07.12.25	Krasnodar - CSKA Moscow	3:2
31.08.25	CSKA Moscow - Krasnodar	1:1
Russian Super Cup
12.07.25	Krasnodar - CSKA Moscow	0:1
Russian Premier League
10.05.25	CSKA Moscow - Krasnodar	1:0
Club Friendly
10.02.25	CSKA Moscow - Krasnodar	1:2
Russian Cup
18.09.24	CSKA Moscow - Krasnodar	2:0

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