Match Info

FNL - Round 13

Date: 5 October 2025, Sunday

Location: Stadion Lokomotiv (Saratov)

Referee: Sidorin A. (Rus)


	Sokol Saratov		Arsenal Tula

	1	X	2
	4.43	3.06	2.06
	4.22	3.11	2.05	Watch
	3.6	2.9	2.1
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.08 ↑ (3.71)	3.02 ↑ (2.98)	2.07 ↓ (2.24)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 3.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Sokol Saratov
23.1%

Draw
31.2%

Arsenal Tula
45.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

25.6%

31.9%

42.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

27.3%

29.9%

39.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Sokol Saratov has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.5%)

Arsenal Tula has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Sokol Saratov than the current prediction. (+4.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Arsenal Tula than the current prediction. (-5.7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Arsenal Tula, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Sokol Saratov - Arsenal Tula Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
36. Levashov M. (G) 51. Sinyak A. 19. Butaev A. 23. Churikov I. 33. Gloydman N. 6. Pechenkin N. 21. Nikitin K. 5. Kovacevic V. (C) 17. Mukhin A. 11. Golijanin A. 9. Shpitalnyi V.	42. Melikhov A. (G) 77. Berdnikov A. 31. Bolshakov K. (C) 15. Putsko A. 4. Penchikov D. 21. Razdorskikh N. 25. Troshechkin A. 14. Brnovic M. 78. Lipovoy D. 19. Bogdanets K. 9. Kalmykov A.
Substitutes
55. Bykov A. 70. Daurov R. 27. Egorushkin A. 69. Ermolin R. 10. Gribov S. 8. Kahrimanovic A. 13. Kireenko P. 92. Kostin V. 1. Kraykov T. (G) 18. Lazarev V. 42. Shaykhtdinov D.	17. Ahlinvi M. 59. Avanesyan T. 24. Azyavin I. 44. Isaenko O. 45. Karmaev N. 29. Maksimov M. 27. Mirzov R. 46. Moskalenchik I. 95. Obryvkov S. 7. Reyes E. 22. Tsaraev A. 18. Tsulaya M. (G)
Coaches
Kascelan M.	Gunko D.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
9', Golijanin A. 🟨,
13', 1 - 0, Mukhin A. ⚽,
30', Bolshakov K. 🟨,
30', Nikitin K. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Brnovic M. ↓, Tsaraev A. ↑,
53', 1 - 1, Penchikov D. ⚽,
55', Golijanin A. ↓, Kireenko P. ↑,
65', Sinyak A. 🟨,
65', Kalmykov A. ↓, Maksimov M. ↑,
65', Lipovoy D. ↓, Mirzov R. ↑,
69', Nikitin K. ↓, Ermolin R. ↑,
69', Sinyak A. ↓, Daurov R. ↑,
71', Troshechkin A. ↓, Avanesyan T. ↑,
73', Butaev A. 🟨,
79', Shpitalnyi V. ↓, Gribov S. ↑,
79', Mukhin A. ↓, Lazarev V. ↑,
84', Razdorskikh N. ↓, Ahlinvi M. ↑,
90+1', 🟨,

Preview

An outsider and a mid-table team will play in this game (ranked 17 in the zone Relegation and 11).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Sokol Saratov won 1.

In recent matches, Sokol Saratov has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Arsenal has been struggling lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Arsenal will hold a modest advantage in this match.

In the last 6 head-to-head matches, Sokol Saratov won 1 match, drew 2 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 2:8. (average 0.3:1.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Sokol Saratov won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 2:4. (average 0.7:1.3).

Last Results with these Odds

Sokol Saratov - the odds 3.71 are the expected chance of winning is 25.62%, but this team recently wins 11% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Sokol Saratov
Russian FNL
29.09.25	Rodina Moscow - Sokol Saratov	2:0 ✺
Russian Cup
23.09.25	Broke Boys - Sokol Saratov	0:2 ✺
Russian FNL
20.09.25	Sokol Saratov - Torpedo Moscow	1:0 ✺
14.09.25	Sokol Saratov - Shinnik	0:0 ✺
08.09.25	Spartak Kostroma - Sokol Saratov	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.1 LWWTL
- Arsenal Tula
Russian FNL
29.09.25	Neftekhimik Nizhnekamsk - Arsenal Tula	1:0 ✺
Russian Cup
25.09.25	Volna Kovernino - Arsenal Tula	0:3 ✺
Russian FNL
20.09.25	Arsenal Tula - Ufa	2:2 ✺
13.09.25	Arsenal Tula - Spartak Kostroma	1:2 ✺
08.09.25	Fakel - Arsenal Tula	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.4 LWTLL

Latest Head to Head

Russian FNL
06.04.25	Arsenal Tula - Sokol Saratov	1:0
02.11.24	Sokol Saratov - Arsenal Tula	1:0
13.11.23	Sokol Saratov - Arsenal Tula	0:3
08.10.23	Arsenal Tula - Sokol Saratov	3:0
11.04.16	Arsenal Tula - Sokol Saratov	0:0
28.09.15	Sokol Saratov - Arsenal Tula	1:1

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