Match Info

NPL Victoria - Round 16

Date: 1 June 2025, Sunday


	South Melbourne		Melbourne Victory Youth

	1	X	2
	1.73	3.6	4.1
	1.72	3.7	4
	1.73	4.01	4.08
	1.74	4	4.15	Watch
	1.75	3.5	4
	1.71	3.7	4.11
	1.72	3.7	4
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.73 ↓ (2.18)	3.74 ↑ (3.44)	4.06 ↑ (2.86)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 6.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

South Melbourne
53%

Draw
24.5%

Melbourne Victory Youth
22.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

41.7%

26.4%

31.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

38.7%

24.5%

34.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

South Melbourne has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+11.3%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in South Melbourne's performance.

Melbourne Victory Youth has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-9.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Melbourne Victory Youth might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for South Melbourne than the current prediction. (-14.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with South Melbourne that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Melbourne Victory Youth than the current prediction. (+11.8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Melbourne Victory Youth could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
66.7%	0%	33.3%

South Melbourne - Melbourne Victory Youth Predictions

Users Predictions: 6 users predict this event. South Melbourne will win (votes: 4 - 66.7%). Victory Youth will win (votes: 2 - 33.3%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. South Melbourne (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 2)
15', 1 - 0, Jankovic M. ⚽,
30', 1 - 1, Hoey J. ⚽,
37', 1 - 2, Mihailidis J. (Pen),
2nd Half (3 - 0)
55', 2 - 2, Mikkola M. ⚽,
66', 3 - 2, Bonada N. ⚽,
85', 4 - 2, Marshall J. ⚽,

Preview

This time, only outsiders will meet in a game (ranked 12 in the zone Relegation ~ Victoria Premier League and 11).

South Melbourne is going through a rough patch (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Victory Youth is going through a series of losses (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

Victory Youth may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, South Melbourne is considered a favorite.

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, South Melbourne won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 8:4. (average 2.7:1.3).

Including home match between the teams, South Melbourne won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 1:0.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- South Melbourne FC
Australian NPL Victoria
23.05.25	Melbourne Knights - South Melbourne	0:2 ✺
18.05.25	South Melbourne - Port Melbourne Sharks	0:2 ✺
11.05.25	South Melbourne - Oakleigh Cannons	1:2 ✺
03.05.25	Avondale - South Melbourne	4:0 ✺
25.04.25	Green Gully - South Melbourne	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.3 WLLLL
- Melbourne Victory Youth
Australian NPL Victoria
25.05.25	Melbourne Victory Youth - Heidelberg United	0:3 ✺
17.05.25	Altona Magic - Melbourne Victory Youth	1:0 ✺
09.05.25	Dandenong City - Melbourne Victory Youth	3:1 ✺
05.05.25	Melbourne Victory Youth - Hume City	2:3 ✺
28.04.25	Melbourne Victory Youth - Dandenong Thunder	3:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 0 LLLLL

Latest Head to Head

Australian NPL Victoria
24.02.25	Melbourne Victory Youth - South Melbourne	3:3
24.07.16	Melbourne Victory Youth - South Melbourne	1:4
24.04.16	South Melbourne - Melbourne Victory Youth	1:0

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