Match Info

Premier League - Round 3

Date: 9 August 2026, Sunday

Location: Lukoil Arena (Moscow)

Referee: Levnikov K. (Rus)

Where to Watch on TV:


Asia	Q Sport Asia
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport 4P
Russia	Match TV
Serbia	Arena Sport 2
Usa	SportsEngine Play


	Spartak Moscow		Krasnodar

	1	X	2
	1.97	3.83	3.82
	1.94	3.7	3.8
	2.09	3.6	3.66	Watch
	2.01	3.45	3.45
Avarage Now (Initially)	2 ↓ (2.21)	3.65 ↑ (3.5)	3.68 ↑ (2.8)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 2.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Spartak Moscow
47.8%

Draw
26.2%

Krasnodar
26%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

41.3%

26.1%

32.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

42.3%

26.8%

31.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Spartak Moscow has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.5%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Spartak Moscow's performance.

Krasnodar has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Krasnodar might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Spartak Moscow than the current prediction. (-5.5%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Spartak Moscow that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Krasnodar than the current prediction. (+5.8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Krasnodar could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
66.7%	16.7%	16.7%

Spartak Moscow - Krasnodar Predictions

Users Predictions: 6 users predict this event. Spartak M will win (votes: 4 - 66.7%). Krasnodar will win (votes: 1 - 16.7%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 16.7%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
98. Maksimenko A. (G) 83. Fernandes G. 3. Wooh C. 6. Babic S. 68. Litvinov R. 18. Umyarov N. 47. Zobnin R. (C) 7. Solari P. 5. Barco E. 10. Marquinhos 9. Ugalde M.	1. Agkatsev S. (C) 40. Vakhania I. 3. Tormena V. 5. Jubal Junior 15. Olaza L. 53. Chernikov A. 8. Douglas Augusto 18. Christian 88. Krivtsov N. 11. Joao Batxi 10. Vorobyev D.
Substitutes
19. Daku M. 97. Denisov D. 4. Djiku A. 27. Dmitriev I. 56. Dovbnya A. (G) 35. Martins C. 24. Massalyga N. 33. Parada V. 62. Polekh P. 1. Pomazun I. (G) 25. Prutsev D. 17. Saus V.	4. Diego Costa 59. Khmarin A. 16. Koryakin A. (G) 6. Lenini K. 67. Mukailov K. 21. Ozdoev M. 17. Paltsev V. 47. Utkin D.
Coaches
Carcedo J. C.	Musaev M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 2)
2', 1 - 0, Ugalde M. ⚽, Marquinhos (A),
5', 1 - 1, Olaza L. ⚽, Douglas Augusto (A),
10', 1 - 2, Joao Batxi ⚽, Krivtsov N. (A),
21', Chernikov A. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Barco E. ↓, Martins C. ↑,
66', Chernikov A. ↓, Lenini K. ↑,
68', Babic S. ↓, Daku M. ↑,
75', Ugalde M. ↓, Prutsev D. ↑,
76', Vakhania I. 🟨,
79', Fernandes G. 🟨,
83', Vorobyev D. ↓, Ozdoev M. ↑,
84', Zobnin R. ↓, Dmitriev I. ↑,
86', Christian ↓, Paltsev V. ↑,
90+4', Jubal Junior 🟨,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Spartak M won 3.

Recent performances by Spartak M have been up and down (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Krasnodar is in very good shape now (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Spartak M may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Recently, Krasnodar has had a series of home games.

Spartak M will hold a modest advantage in this match.

There will not play in Spartak M: Zorin D. (Achilles Tendon Injury)

There will not play in Krasnodar: Cordoba J. (Muscle Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Spartak M won 10 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 10 matches, and goals 40:31. (average 2:1.6).

Including home matches between the teams, Spartak M won 6 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 25:20. (average 2.1:1.7).

Outrights of Russian Premier League for now

Spartak Moscow: 15.08% Krasnodar: 14.68%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
2	Krasnodar	10	6	3	1	16:10	6	21
3	Spartak Moscow	10	6	2	2	17:8	9	20

Last Results with these Odds

Spartak Moscow - the odds 2.21 are the expected chance of winning is 41.31%, but this team recently wins 55% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Spartak Moscow
Russian Cup
05.08.26	Spartak Moscow - Orenburg	5:1 ✺
Russian Premier League
02.08.26	Akhmat Grozny - Spartak Moscow	1:2 ✺
25.07.26	Spartak Moscow - Rodina Moscow	3:0 ✺
Russian Super Cup
18.07.26	Zenit - Spartak Moscow	2:1 penalties ✺
Club Friendly
11.07.26	Lokomotiv Moscow - Spartak Moscow	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.6 WWWLL
- FC Krasnodar
Russian Cup
05.08.26	Krasnodar - Akhmat Grozny	1:1 ✺
Russian Premier League
02.08.26	Krasnodar - Fakel	3:2 ✺
26.07.26	Rubin Kazan - Krasnodar	1:3 ✺
Club Friendly
19.07.26	Krasnodar - Baltika Kaliningrad	1:1 ✺
11.07.26	Krasnodar - Rostov	3:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.4 TWWTT

Latest Head to Head

Russian Cup
24.05.26	Spartak Moscow - Krasnodar	2:1 penalties
Russian Premier League
23.04.26	Spartak Moscow - Krasnodar	1:2
02.11.25	Krasnodar - Spartak Moscow	2:1
Club Friendly
30.01.25	Spartak Moscow - Krasnodar	3:2
Russian Premier League
01.12.24	Krasnodar - Spartak Moscow	0:3
19.10.24	Spartak Moscow - Krasnodar	0:3
11.05.24	Spartak Moscow - Krasnodar	1:0

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