Match Info

Date: 12 March 2022, Saturday


	Spezia		Cagliari

	1	X	2
	2.7	3.25	2.62	Watch
	2.75	3.1	2.7
	2.75	3.15	2.65	Watch
	2.75	3.05	2.7
	2.86	3.16	2.81
	2.8	2.9	2.7	Watch
	2.78	3.14	2.77
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.77 ↑ (2.49)	3.11 ↓ (3.34)	2.71 ↓ (2.86)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 2.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Spezia
34.3%

Draw
30.6%

Cagliari
35.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

38.2%

28.5%

33.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

26.9%

20.1%

47.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Spezia has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.9%)

Cagliari has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Spezia than the current prediction. (-7.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Spezia that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Cagliari than the current prediction. (+12.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Cagliari could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Spezia - Cagliari Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Preview

We will watch a tense game between outsiders (ranked 16 and 17).

Spezia has the most likely position - 17 (30.28%), has project points - 35, has currently - 26, has a chance of relegated (25%), has a very small chance of qualify for ucl (<1%), has not chance of win league.

Cagliari has the most likely position - 15 (22.92%), has project points - 37, has currently - 25, has a small chance of relegated (14%), has a very small chance of qualify for ucl (<1%), has not chance of win league.

This event has quality 52, importance 48, match rating 50. (0-100) (fivethirtyeight.com)

Spezia has a chain of defeats in the last matches (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Recent matches Cagliari is playing unstable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

The chances to win of two teams are almost the same in this match.

Last 5 head-to-head matches Spezia won 2 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 8-9.

Including matches at home between the teams Spezia won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 2-4.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Spezia Calcio
Italian Serie A
06.03.22	Juventus - Spezia	1:0 ✺
27.02.22	Spezia - Roma	0:1 ✺
21.02.22	Bologna - Spezia	2:1 ✺
14.02.22	Spezia - Fiorentina	1:2 ✺
07.02.22	Salernitana - Spezia	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.1 LLLLT
- Cagliari Calcio
Italian Serie A
05.03.22	Cagliari - Lazio	0:3 ✺
27.02.22	Torino - Cagliari	1:2 ✺
21.02.22	Cagliari - Napoli	1:1 ✺
13.02.22	Empoli - Cagliari	1:1 ✺
06.02.22	Atalanta - Cagliari	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 44.8 LWTTW

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie A
23.08.21	Cagliari - Spezia	2:2
20.03.21	Spezia - Cagliari	2:1
29.11.20	Cagliari - Spezia	2:2
Italian Serie B
02.04.16	Cagliari - Spezia	1:2
15.11.15	Spezia - Cagliari	0:3
Coppa Italia
18.08.12	Cagliari - Spezia	N/A

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