The best margin for this event is 2.2%, offered by
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Current Win Probability
Spezia 23.4%
Draw 26.5%
Fiorentina 50.1%
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
22.6%
26%
51.3%
Our Initial ML Estimation
21.1%
27.8%
54.9%
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Spezia has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.8%)
Fiorentina has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.2%)
ML Model estimates a lower probability for Spezia than the current prediction. (-2.3%)
ML Model estimates a higher probability for Fiorentina than the current prediction. (+4.8%)
Who will win by Users?
1
X
2
24%
20%
56%
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Predictions
Users Predictions:
50 users predict this event. Spezia will win (votes: 12 - 24%). Fiorentina will win (votes: 28 - 56%). It will Tie (votes: 10 - 20%). Confidence interval (95%) for Fiorentina: 42.2% โ 69.8%.
Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1
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Preview
A game will be played between two neighbours in a tournament table (ranked 16 and 14).
Spezia has the most likely position - 20 (17.63%), has project points - 33, has currently - 9, has a chance of relegated (46%), has a very small chance of qualify for ucl (<1%), has a very small chance of win league (<1%).
Fiorentina has the most likely position - 9 (13.74%), has project points - 53, has currently - 10, has a very small chance of relegated (2%), has a very small chance of qualify for ucl (4%), has a very small chance of win league (<1%).
This event has quality55, small importance28, match rating41. (0-100) (fivethirtyeight.com)
Spezia is in unsatisfactory shape (in the last 5 games wins - 1).
Recent matches Fiorentina is playing uncertain (in the last 5 games wins - 2).
Spezia could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.
Recently Fiorentina have a series of home games.
In this match Fiorentina is a favorite.
There will not play in Spezia: Bastoni S.
(Injury)
Kovalenko V.
(Injury)
There will not play in Fiorentina: Castrovilli G.
(Knee Injury)
Gonzalez N.
(Injury)
There are questionable in Fiorentina: Sottil R.
(Injury)
Last 4 head-to-head matches Spezia won 0 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 3-10.
Including matches at home between the teams Spezia won 0 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 3-4.
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