Match Info

Serie A - Round 36

Date: 11 May 2025, Sunday

Location: Bluenergy Stadium - Stadio Friuli (Udine)

Referee: Crezzini V. (Ita)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Udinese		Monza

	1	X	2
	1.5	4.33	6.25	Watch
	1.49	4.33	6.5
	1.52	4.25	6.4
	1.54	4.3	6.59
	1.54	4.29	6.52	Watch
	1.44	4.2	6
	1.56	4.48	6.69	Watch
	1.52	4.3	6.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.51 ↓ (1.54)	4.31 ↑ (4.28)	6.43 ↓ (6.45)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 1.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Udinese
63%

Draw
22.1%

Monza
14.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

62.6%

22.5%

14.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

51%

18.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Udinese has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.4%)

Monza has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Udinese than the current prediction. (-12%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Udinese that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Monza than the current prediction. (+3.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
82.4%	5.9%	11.8%

Udinese - Monza Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Tie (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DC - Monza (2.44) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.75 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH 0 - Monza (4.26) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Udinese will win (13 of 15 users predict this - 86.67%).
Confidence interval (95%): 69.47% – 100%.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Monza (votes: 2 - 66.7%). Tie (votes: 1 - 33.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
40. Okoye M. (G) 31. Kristensen T. 29. Bijol J. (C) 28. Solet O. 77. Modesto R. 6. Zarraga O. 25. Karlstrom J. 5. Payero M. 11. Kamara H. 14. Atta A. 9. Davis K.	21. Pizzignacco S. (G) 13. Pereira P. (C) 2. Brorsson A. 44. Carboni A. 19. Birindelli S. 11. Castrovilli G. 42. Bianco A. 7. Akpa Akpro J. 77. Kyriakopoulos G. 20. Forson O. 10. Caprari G.
Substitutes
21. Bravo I. 19. Ehizibue K. 32. Ekkelenkamp J. 30. Giannetti L. 27. Kabasele C. 8. Lovric S. 17. Lucca L. 93. Padelli D. (G) 20. Pafundi S. 16. Palma M. 99. Pizarro D. 7. Sanchez A. 90. Sava R. (G) 33. Zemura J.	17. Balde K. 84. Ciurria P. 57. Colombo L. 3. Lekovic S. 55. Martins K. 69. Mazza A. (G) 22. Palacios T. 37. Petagna A. 12. Sensi S. 30. Turati S. (G) 8. Urbanski K. 80. Vignato S. 18. Zeroli K.
Coaches
Runjaic K.	Nesta A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
13', Akpa Akpro J. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 2)
46', Bijol J. ↓, Lovric S. ↑,
46', Zarraga O. ↓, Lucca L. ↑,
50', Atta A. 🟨,
52', 0 - 1, Caprari G. ⚽,
63', Payero M. ↓, Ekkelenkamp J. ↑,
65', Forson O. ↓, Balde K. ↑,
65', Castrovilli G. ↓, Zeroli K. ↑,
70', Davis K. ↓, Bravo I. ↑,
75', Atta A. ↓, Pafundi S. ↑,
75', 1 - 1, Lucca L. ⚽, Karlstrom J. (A),
78', Bianco A. ↓, Sensi S. ↑,
84', Caprari G. ↓, Petagna A. ↑,
84', Kyriakopoulos G. ↓, Ciurria P. ↑,
90', 1 - 2, Balde K. ⚽, Zeroli K. (A),
90+1', Balde K. 🟨,
90+3', Lucca L. 🟨,
90+6', Pereira P. 🟨,

Preview

This match features a clash between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 12 and 20 in the zone Relegation ~ Serie B).

Monza is Relegated to Serie B

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Udinese won 1.

Udinese is currently in poor form (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Monza has been on a rough run of results (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

Monza may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Udinese is the obvious favorite.

There will not play in Udinese: Thauvin F. (Foot Injury) Toure I. (Knee Injury)

There will not play in Monza: Gagliardini R. (Injury) Ganvoula S. (Injury) Izzo A. (Thigh Injury) Pessina M. (Thigh Injury)

There are questionable in Udinese: Lucca L. (Calf Injury)

There are questionable in Monza: Caldirola L. (Thigh Injury) D'Ambrosio D. (Injury) Mota D. (Injury) Turati S. (Illness)

In the last 6 head-to-head matches, Udinese won 2 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 9:8. (average 1.5:1.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Udinese won 0 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 4:5. (average 1.3:1.7).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Udinese Calcio
Italian Serie A
03.05.25	Cagliari - Udinese	1:2 ✺
28.04.25	Udinese - Bologna	0:0 ✺
23.04.25	Torino - Udinese	2:0 ✺
11.04.25	Udinese - Milan	0:4 ✺
04.04.25	Genoa - Udinese	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.4 WTLLL
- Monza 1912
Italian Serie A
04.05.25	Monza - Atalanta	0:4 ✺
27.04.25	Juventus - Monza	2:0 ✺
19.04.25	Monza - Napoli	0:1 ✺
12.04.25	Venezia - Monza	1:0 ✺
05.04.25	Monza - Como	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 0 LLLLL

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie A
09.12.24	Monza - Udinese	1:2
03.02.24	Udinese - Monza	0:0
29.10.23	Monza - Udinese	1:1
08.04.23	Udinese - Monza	2:2
Coppa Italia
19.10.22	Udinese - Monza	2:3
Italian Serie A
26.08.22	Monza - Udinese	1:2

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