Match Info

Liga 1 - Clausura - Round 12

Date: 30 September 2025, Tuesday

Location: Estadio Huancayo (Huancayo)

Referee: Ureta D. (Per)

Where to Watch on TV:


Mexico	Fanatiz
Peru	Liga 1 Play
Usa	Fanatiz


	Sport Huancayo		Alianza Universidad de Huánuco

	1	X	2
	1.55	4	5.25	Watch
	1.58	4	5.2	Watch
	1.58	4.25	5.32
	1.70	3.76	4.61	Watch
	1.58	4.06	5.33	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.6 ↓ (1.8)	4.01 ↑ (3.4)	5.14 ↑ (4.33)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 5.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Sport Huancayo
58.5%

Draw
23.3%

Alianza Universidad de Huánuco
18.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

51.4%

27.2%

21.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

54.5%

28.8%

20.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Sport Huancayo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Sport Huancayo's performance.

Alianza Universidad de Huánuco has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Sport Huancayo than the current prediction. (-4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Alianza Universidad de Huánuco than the current prediction. (+2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
87.5%	12.5%	0%

Sport Huancayo - Alianza Universidad de Huánuco Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Huancayo (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -1 - Huancayo (1.92) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Sport Huancayo will win (7 of 8 users predict this - 87.5%).
Confidence interval (95%): 64.58% – 100%.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Huancayo (votes: 2 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. Zamudio A. (G) 16. Barboza S. 26. Gaona M. 92. Murillo Y. 2. Angeles H. 38. Villar E. 22. Salcedo R. (C) 28. Fernandez E. 89. Posito J. 11. Sanguinetti J. 9. de Jesus M.	1. Ynamine P. (G) 26. Iraola G. 66. Fuentes P. 33. Otavio Gut 7. Gomez A. 5. Ascues C. 88. Aubert E. 20. Canela Torres J. J. 8. Lliuya M. 22. Campodonico R. 17. Mena Y. (C)
Substitutes
80. Carabano D. 8. Herrera J. 19. Huaccha R. 10. Lujan N. 20. Madrid J. 23. Magallanes P. 30. Martinez J. 25. Perez A. 33. Solis C. (G)	3. Ampuero A. 23. Barco J. 29. Escobar J. 31. Espinoza Gomes I. (G) 14. Guevara B. 19. Mendieta J. 15. Ramirez N. 38. Sernaque J. 11. Vasquez Ortega E. O.
Coaches
Pellejero R.	Mosquera R.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 1)
20', 0 - 1, Mena Y. (Pen),
24', 1 - 1, Murillo Y. ⚽,
24', Pellejero R. 🟨,
26', 2 - 1, Barboza S. ⚽,
44', Gomez A. 🟨,
45+4', Gomez A. 🟥,
2nd Half (3 - 0)
46', Canela Torres J. J. ↓, Sernaque J. ↑,
46', Ynamine P. ↓, Espinoza Gomes I. ↑,
50', Mena Y. 🟨,
56', Fernandez E. ↓, Lujan N. ↑,
56', Posito J. ↓, Huaccha R. ↑,
58', Salcedo R. 🟨,
61', Campodonico R. ↓, Ramirez N. ↑,
68', de Jesus M. ↓, Carabano D. ↑,
71', Fuentes P. 🟨,
73', Carabano D. 🟨,
78', 3 - 1, Carabano D. ⚽, Sanguinetti J. (A),
78', Lliuya M. ↓, Escobar J. ↑,
78', Ascues C. ↓, Vasquez Ortega E. O. ↑,
81', 4 - 1, Huaccha R. ⚽, Sanguinetti J. (A),
81', Salcedo R. ↓, Herrera J. ↑,
82', Sanguinetti J. ↓, Magallanes P. ↑,
90+3', 5 - 1, Magallanes P. ⚽, Angeles H. (A),

Preview

A mid-table team will face off against the outsider in this match (ranked 10 and 15).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Huancayo won 3.

Recent form of Huancayo has been disappointing (last 5 games: 1 wins).

In recent matches, Alianza Universidad has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Alianza Universidad may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Huancayo is a strong favorite.

There will not play in Alianza Universidad: Gomez R. (Injury)

There are questionable in Huancayo: Chavez A. (Injury)

In the last 6 head-to-head matches, Huancayo won 4 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 14:9. (average 2.3:1.5).

Including home matches between the teams, Huancayo won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 9:7. (average 2.3:1.8).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Sport Huancayo
Peruvian Liga 1
26.09.25	Atlético Grau - Sport Huancayo	3:1 ✺
21.09.25	Sport Huancayo - Cienciano	5:2 ✺
17.09.25	Comerciantes Unidos - Sport Huancayo	2:0 ✺
12.09.25	Sport Huancayo - Los Chankas	1:2 ✺
23.08.25	Deportivo Garcilaso - Sport Huancayo	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.3 LWLLT
- Alianza Universidad de Huánuco
Peruvian Liga 1
26.09.25	Alianza Universidad de Huánuco - Sport Boys	2:3 ✺
18.09.25	Atlético Grau - Alianza Universidad de Huánuco	2:0 ✺
14.09.25	Alianza Universidad de Huánuco - Cienciano	0:3 ✺
30.08.25	Alianza Universidad de Huánuco - Los Chankas	2:1 ✺
23.08.25	Comerciantes Unidos - Alianza Universidad de Huánuco	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.2 LLLWW

Latest Head to Head

Peruvian Liga 1
12.05.25	Alianza Universidad de Huánuco - Sport Huancayo	0:1
02.10.21	Sport Huancayo - Alianza Universidad de Huánuco	4:3
03.05.21	Sport Huancayo - Alianza Universidad de Huánuco	3:3
05.10.20	Sport Huancayo - Alianza Universidad de Huánuco	0:1
27.10.19	Alianza Universidad de Huánuco - Sport Huancayo	2:4
11.05.19	Sport Huancayo - Alianza Universidad de Huánuco	2:0

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