Match Info

Copa do Nordeste - Play Offs - Quarter-finals

Date: 6 May 2026, Wednesday

Location: Estadio Adelmar da Costa Carvalho (Recife)

Referee: Souza W. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Claro TV+, SBT, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping


	Sport Recife		Agremiação Sportiva Arapiraquense

	1	X	2
	1.36	4.2	7.5	Watch
	1.33	4.35	7.7
	1.35	4.76	8.64
	1.46	4.17	6.16	Watch
	1.33	4.2	8
	1.4	4.39	7.84	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.37 ↓ (1.55)	4.35 ↑ (3.62)	7.64 ↑ (5.74)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 6.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Sport Recife
66.9%

Draw
21.1%

Agremiação Sportiva Arapiraquense
12%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

58.9%

25.2%

15.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

61.4%

24.2%

15.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Sport Recife has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Sport Recife's performance.

Agremiação Sportiva Arapiraquense has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Sport Recife than the current prediction. (-5.5%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Sport Recife that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Agremiação Sportiva Arapiraquense than the current prediction. (+3.3%)

Sport Recife - Agremiação Sportiva Arapiraquense Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
26. Thiago Couto (G) 13. Madson 5. Benevenuto (C) 3. Marcelo Ajul 60. Felipinho 58. Ze Lucas 6. Biel Fonseca 10. de Pena Carlos 9. Pedro Perotti 30. Chrystian Barletta 31. Marlon Douglas	1. Rafael Mariano (G) 22. Paulinho 13. Danilo Mendes 4. Cristian Lucca 3. Jackson 16. Arthurzinho 14. Vitao 8. Allef (C) 10. Higor Leite 19. Marquinhos Brazion 9. Alex Bruno
Substitutes
68. Augusto 25. Clayson 96. Edson Lucas 11. Gustavo Maia 28. Habraao 1. Halls (G) 71. Lipao 8. Max Alves 77. Micael 48. Pedro Martins 23. Ze Gabriel 4. Ze Marcos	12. Cris (G) 20. Dutra A. 18. Franco R. 29. Iarley 27. Jailson 21. Jonata 2. Leo Principe 28. Motta 17. Pedro Colina 15. Roni Lobo 6. Wesley Costa
Coaches
Azevedo M.	Schulle I.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
27', Cristian Lucca 🟨,
35', Benevenuto 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Higor Leite ↓, Yohan ↑,
55', Madson ↓, Augusto ↑,
55', Marlon Douglas ↓, Clayson ↑,
55', Marquinhos Brazion ↓, Iarley ↑,
57', Vitao 🟨,
57', Ze Lucas 🟨,
63', Arthurzinho ↓, Wesley Costa ↑,
63', Vitao ↓, Franco R. ↑,
70', Rafael Mariano 🟨,
77+10', Biel Fonseca ↓, Ze Gabriel ↑,
80', 1 - 0, Felipinho ⚽,
83', Cristian Lucca ↓, Jonata ↑,
88', de Pena Carlos ↓, Pedro Martins ↑,
88', Chrystian Barletta ↓, Max Alves ↑,
90+9', Alex Bruno 🟨,

Preview

Recife is Qualified for

Recife is currently in amazing form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

ASA has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

In this match, Recife is a strong favorite.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Recife won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 8:4. (average 4:2).

Including home match between the teams, Recife won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 4:2.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Sport Recife
Brazilian Serie B
03.05.26	Sport Recife - Ceará	2:0 ✺
Brazilian Copa do Nordeste
29.04.26	Fortaleza - Sport Recife	2:0 ✺
Brazilian Serie B
25.04.26	Sport Recife - Grêmio Novorizontino	1:0 ✺
18.04.26	América Mineiro - Sport Recife	0:0 ✺
Brazilian Copa do Nordeste
15.04.26	Sport Recife - Maranhão	5:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.4 WLWTW
- Agremiação Sportiva Arapiraquense
Brazilian Serie D
03.05.26	Atlético de Alagoinhas - Agremiação Sportiva Arapiraquense	2:1 ✺
Brazilian Copa do Nordeste
29.04.26	Juazeirense - Agremiação Sportiva Arapiraquense	1:1 ✺
Brazilian Serie D
26.04.26	Juazeirense - Agremiação Sportiva Arapiraquense	1:0 ✺
19.04.26	Agremiação Sportiva Arapiraquense - CS Alagoano	2:1 ✺
Brazilian Copa do Nordeste
15.04.26	Agremiação Sportiva Arapiraquense - Confiança	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.7 LTLWT

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie B
26.10.13	Sport Recife - Agremiação Sportiva Arapiraquense	4:2
06.08.13	Agremiação Sportiva Arapiraquense - Sport Recife	2:4

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