Match Info

Serie B - Round 17

Date: 10 July 2026, Friday

Location: Estadio Adelmar da Costa Carvalho (Recife)

Referee: Lima Barbosa M. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Usa	SportsEngine Play


	Sport Recife		Botafogo SP

	1	X	2
	1.96	3.1	4.2	Watch
	1.93	3.10	4.00
	1.95	3.1	3.95	Watch
	2.06	3.21	4.24
	1.97	3.21	4.1	Watch
	1.98	3.2	4.25
	1.94	3.08	4.38	Watch
	1.98	3.15	3.95
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.97 ↑ (1.91)	3.14 ↓ (3.4)	4.13 ↑ (3.95)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 3.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Sport Recife
47.5%

Draw
29.8%

Botafogo SP
22.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

48.9%

27.5%

23.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

48.7%

27.6%

23.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Sport Recife has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.4%)

Botafogo SP has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Sport Recife than the current prediction. (+1.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Botafogo SP than the current prediction. (+1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
87.5%	12.5%	0%

Sport Recife - Botafogo SP Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Recife (votes: 2 - 66.7%). Tie (votes: 1 - 33.3%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - under (1.57) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Sport Recife will win (21 of 24 users predict this - 87.5%).
Confidence interval (95%): 74.27% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
26. Thiago Couto (G) 13. Madson 5. Benevenuto (C) 28. Habraao 60. Felipinho 58. Ze Lucas 47. Fabio Matheus 30. Chrystian Barletta 6. Biel Fonseca 31. Marlon Douglas 9. Pedro Perotti	1. Victor Souza (G) 20. Yuri Felipe 3. Ericson 4. Vilar 6. Patrick Brey (C) 16. Matheus Sales 30. Ze Hugo 8. Everton Morelli 10. Rafael Gava 7. Kelvin 9. Hygor
Substitutes
68. Augusto 25. Clayson 10. de Pena Carlos 96. Edson Lucas 11. Gustavo Maia 1. Halls (G) 3. Marcelo Ajul 48. Pedro Martins 7. Yago Felipe 23. Ze Gabriel 4. Ze Marcos 99. Ze Roberto	25. Adriano (G) 26. Felipe Vieira 17. Guilherme Queiroz 34. Hebert 11. Jefferson Nem 12. Jordan (G) 5. Leandro Maciel 29. Thiago Moraes 13. Wallace 23. Wesley Santos
Coaches
Gilmar Pozzo	Claudio Tencati

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 2)
25', 0 - 1, Ze Hugo ⚽, Everton Morelli (A),
27', Rafael Gava 🟨,
30', Claudio Tencati 🟨,
38', Ze Lucas 🟨,
42', 0 - 2, Rafael Gava (Penalty Awarded),
45+4', Matheus Sales 🟨,
2nd Half (3 - 1)
46', Marlon Douglas ↓, Clayson ↑,
46', Ze Lucas ↓, Ze Gabriel ↑,
46', Madson ↓, Augusto ↑,
47', 1 - 2, Chrystian Barletta ⚽,
54', Habraao 🟨,
64', 2 - 2, Benevenuto ⚽, Clayson (A),
65', Fabio Matheus ↓, Yago Felipe ↑,
69', Matheus Sales ↓, Leandro Maciel ↑,
69', Kelvin ↓, Felipe Vieira ↑,
70', Hygor ↓, Guilherme Queiroz ↑,
73', Felipe Vieira 🟨,
76', 2 - 3, Patrick Brey ⚽, Rafael Gava (A),
79', Rafael Gava ↓, Wallace ↑,
82', Biel Fonseca ↓, Ze Roberto ↑,
89', Ze Hugo ↓, Wesley Santos ↑,
90+4', Leandro Maciel 🟨,
90+6', 3 - 3, Chrystian Barletta (Penalty Awarded),
90+9', Clayson 🟥,

Preview

This time we’ll see a clash between two mid-table teams (ranked 8 and 14).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Recife won 3.

Recife is currently in poor form (last 5 games: 0 wins).

In recent matches, Botafogo SP has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

In this match, Recife is seen as the favorite.

There will not play in Recife: Ze Lucas (Inactive)

There will not play in Botafogo SP: Carlao (Knee Injury) Darlan (Injury) Jonathan (Injury) Marco Antonio (Injury)

There are questionable in Botafogo SP: Gabriel Inocencio (Inactive)

In the last 6 head-to-head matches, Recife won 4 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 13:3. (average 2.2:0.5).

Including home matches between the teams, Recife won 3 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 9:1. (average 3:0.3).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
8	Sport Recife	32	13	11	8	44:34	10	50
16	Botafogo SP	32	10	8	14	36:38	-2	38

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Sport Recife
Brazilian Serie B
04.07.26	Criciúma - Sport Recife	1:0 ✺
28.06.26	Fortaleza - Sport Recife	2:1 ✺
18.06.26	Sport Recife - Atlético Goianiense	1:1 ✺
14.06.26	São Bernardo - Sport Recife	0:0 ✺
10.06.26	Sport Recife - Athletic Club	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.6 LLTTT
- Botafogo SP
Brazilian Serie B
06.07.26	Botafogo SP - Avaí	3:1 ✺
30.06.26	Botafogo SP - CRB Maceio	0:1 ✺
20.06.26	Ceará - Botafogo SP	0:1 ✺
14.06.26	Botafogo SP - Operário Ferroviario	2:1 ✺
08.06.26	Vila Nova - Botafogo SP	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.5 WLWWL

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie B
20.10.24	Sport Recife - Botafogo SP	3:1
29.06.24	Botafogo SP - Sport Recife	1:1
03.09.23	Botafogo SP - Sport Recife	1:1
20.05.23	Sport Recife - Botafogo SP	3:0
13.11.19	Botafogo SP - Sport Recife	0:2
17.08.19	Sport Recife - Botafogo SP	3:0

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