Match Info

BRAZIL: Serie B - Round 22

Date: 22 August 2024, Thursday

Location: Estadio Adelmar da Costa Carvalho (Recife)

Referee: Fernandes de Lima F. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Canal GOAT, Claro TV+, Premiere, Sky+, TV Brasil, Vivo Play, Zapping
World	Amazon Prime Video


	Sport Recife		Coritiba

	1	X	2
	1.9	3.3	4.2	Watch
	1.87	3.1	4.1
	1.9	3.3	4.2
	1.95	3.29	4.67
	1.97	3.21	4.08	Watch
	1.91	3.25	4.2
	1.9	3.3	4.19	Watch
	1.9	3.3	4.2
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.91 ↑ (1.77)	3.26 ↓ (3.28)	4.23 ↓ (4.73)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 3.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Sport Recife
49%

Draw
28.8%

Coritiba
22.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

52.3%

28.2%

19.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

52.3%

28.2%

19.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Sport Recife has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.3%)

Coritiba has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Sport Recife than the current prediction. (+3.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Coritiba than the current prediction. (-2.7%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
81.2%	6.2%	12.5%

Sport Recife - Coritiba Predictions

Users Predictions: Sport Recife will win (13 of 16 users predict this - 81.25%).
Confidence interval (95%): 62.12% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
22. Caique Franca (G) 20. Di Placido L. 2. Allyson 40. Luciano Castan (C) 6. Felipinho 7. Fabinho 8. Dominguez F. 19. Lucas Lima 77. Lenny Lobato 30. Chrystian Barletta 9. Gustavo Coutinho	72. Pedro Morisco (G) 16. Natanael 14. Thalisson 4. Benevenuto 26. Bruno Melo 8. Ze Gabriel 98. Lucas Ronier 10. Matheus Frizzo 36. Vini Paulista 19. Gomez S. 30. Robson (C)
Substitutes
12. Alisson Cassiano 44. Chico 29. Dalbert 47. Fabio Matheus 16. Igor Carius 55. Lucas Andre 43. Luciano 59. Ortiz C. 17. Pedro Vilhena 21. Thiago Couto (G) 18. Wellington Silva 99. Ze Roberto	67. Benassi (G) 21. Brandao 7. Castillo E. 77. Eberth 87. Gabriel Leite (G) 43. Jhonny 9. Junior Brumado 18. Matheus Bianqui 5. Mauricio Antonio 6. Rodrigo Gelado 57. Wesley Pomba
Coaches
Guto Ferreira	Jorginho

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
31', Di Placido L. ↓, Lucas Andre ↑,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Lenny Lobato ↓, Ortiz C. ↑,
51', Gustavo Coutinho 🟨,
57', Dominguez F. 🟨,
61', Gabriel Leite 🟨,
61', 0 - 1, Bruno Melo ⚽, Matheus Frizzo (A),
67', Luciano Castan ↓, Chico ↑,
67', Chrystian Barletta ↓, Ze Roberto ↑,
76', Dominguez F. ↓, Wellington Silva ↑,
80', Matheus Frizzo ↓, Junior Brumado ↑,
81', Bruno Melo ↓, Rodrigo Gelado ↑,
82', Lucas Lima 🟨,
86', Robson 🟨,
88', Robson ↓, Mauricio Antonio ↑,
90+3', Ortiz C. 🟨,
90+6', Gomez S. ↓, Jhonny ↑,
90+6', Lucas Ronier ↓, Matheus Bianqui ↑,

Preview

This time we will watch a game between teams from the middle of a tournament table (ranked 8 and 13).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Recife won 3.

One and the other team get a very uncertain game.

In this match Recife is a favorite.

There will not play in Recife: Palacios H. (Injury) Rafael Thyere (Injury) Romarinho (Injury)

There will not play in Coritiba: Leandro Damiao (Personal Reasons)

Last 17 head-to-head matches Recife won 9 matches, drawn 4 matches, lost 4 matches and goals 23-15.

Including matches at home between the teams Recife won 5 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 10-6.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Sport Recife
Brazilian Serie B
16.08.24	Vila Nova - Sport Recife	2:0 ✺
10.08.24	Sport Recife - Amazonas	3:2 ✺
02.08.24	Santos - Sport Recife	1:1 ✺
27.07.24	Sport Recife - Ponte Preta	3:1 ✺
23.07.24	Chapecoense - Sport Recife	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.1 LWTWT
- Coritiba
Brazilian Serie B
18.08.24	Brusque - Coritiba	0:1 ✺
11.08.24	Coritiba - Ponte Preta	1:1 ✺
03.08.24	Botafogo SP - Coritiba	2:0 ✺
27.07.24	Coritiba - Chapecoense	1:0 ✺
22.07.24	Santos - Coritiba	4:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.1 WTLWL

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie B
03.05.24	Coritiba - Sport Recife	0:1
Copa do Brasil
26.04.23	Sport Recife - Coritiba	2:0
12.04.23	Coritiba - Sport Recife	3:3
Brazilian Serie A
13.12.20	Sport Recife - Coritiba	1:0
30.08.20	Coritiba - Sport Recife	1:0
Brazilian Serie B
04.11.19	Coritiba - Sport Recife	0:0
01.08.19	Sport Recife - Coritiba	1:1

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