Match Info

Liga Primera - Apertura - Round 5

Date: 10 September 2026, Thursday


	Sport Sébaco		Diriangén

	1	X	2
	4.60	3.50	1.61
	4.7	3.65	1.55	Watch
	5.06	3.9	1.57
	5.08	3.99	1.61	Watch
	5	3.85	1.55
	4.96	3.86	1.64
	4.7	3.7	1.58
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.87 ↑ (3.85)	3.78 ↑ (3.5)	1.59 ↓ (1.7)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 6.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Sport Sébaco
18.7%

Draw
24.1%

Diriangén
57.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

22.9%

25.2%

51.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

22.5%

25.6%

52.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Sport Sébaco has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.2%)

Diriangén has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.4%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Diriangén's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Sport Sébaco than the current prediction. (+3.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Diriangén than the current prediction. (-4.5%)

Sport Sébaco - Diriangén Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
18', 0 - 1, ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 0)

Preview

The game will be played between two neighbours in the standings (ranked 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga Primera (Apertura ~ Winners: Quarter~finals) and 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga Primera (Apertura ~ Winners: Semi~finals))

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Sport Sébaco won 2.

Sport Sébaco is currently in amazing form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

In recent matches, Diriangén has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Diriangén may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Diriangén is seen as the favorite.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Sport Sébaco won 4 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 13 matches, and goals 15:41. (average 0.8:2.1).

Including home matches between the teams, Sport Sébaco won 1 match, drew 2 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 7:17. (average 0.7:1.7).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
2	Diriangen	10	8	2	0	22:7	15	26
5	Sport Sebaco	9	3	2	4	9:17	-8	11

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Sport Sébaco
Nicaraguan Liga Primera
06.09.26	Sport Sébaco - UNAN Managua	1:3 ✺
02.09.26	Sport Sébaco - Walter Ferretti	1:1 ✺
30.08.26	Sport Sébaco - Real Estelí	0:5 ✺
22.08.26	Managua - Sport Sébaco	6:1 ✺
08.08.26	Municipal Jalapa - Sport Sébaco	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.5 LTLLW
- Diriangén FC
Nicaraguan Liga Primera
06.09.26	Matagalpa - Diriangén	0:3 ✺
03.09.26	Managua - Diriangén	3:3 ✺
29.08.26	Diriangén - Municipal Jalapa	2:0 ✺
22.08.26	Real Estelí - Diriangén	0:2 ✺
CONCACAF Central American Cup
18.08.26	Xelajú - Diriangén	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.9 WTWWL

Latest Head to Head

Nicaraguan Copa Primera
12.07.26	Sport Sébaco - Diriangén	1:1
04.07.26	Diriangén - Sport Sébaco	1:2
Nicaraguan Liga Primera
16.04.26	Sport Sébaco - Diriangén	0:2
15.02.26	Diriangén - Sport Sébaco	0:1
06.12.25	Diriangén - Sport Sébaco	5:0
30.11.25	Sport Sébaco - Diriangén	0:1
02.11.25	Diriangén - Sport Sébaco	5:0

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