Match Info

Liga 3 - Promotion Group - Round 14

Date: 17 May 2025, Saturday

Location: CGD Stadium Aurelio Pereira (Alcochete)

Where to Watch on TV:


Portugal	Canal 11


	Sporting Lisbon B		Amarante

	1	X	2
	1.52	3.6	5.5
	1.44	3.95	6.6
	1.47	4.1	6.71
	1.49	4.04	6.89	Watch
	1.55	3.98	5.76	Watch
	1.44	3.95	6.6
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.49 ↓ (1.83)	3.94 ↑ (3.32)	6.34 ↑ (4.02)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 6.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Sporting Lisbon B
62.1%

Draw
23.4%

Amarante
14.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

49.9%

27.4%

22.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

52.6%

26%

21.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Sporting Lisbon B has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+12.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Sporting Lisbon B's performance.

Amarante has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Amarante might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Sporting Lisbon B than the current prediction. (-9.5%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Sporting Lisbon B that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Amarante than the current prediction. (+7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Amarante could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Sporting Lisbon B - Amarante Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
41. Diego Callai (G) 45. Moreira D. 43. Muniz J. 53. Dias R. 55. Silva J. 77. Besugo R. 81. Arreiol H. 76. Blopa S. 78. Couto M. 90. Moreira A. 88. Mendonca M. (C)	13. Flores R. (G) 2. Ribeiro O. 4. Filipe J. 88. Aguiar E. 17. Filipe R. 30. Antunes Tiago C. J. 5. Guedes R. 12. Zangre A. 16. Leandro M. 10. Semedo K. (C) 70. Zakari B.
Substitutes
67. Anjos L. 50. Brito A. 80. Gomes L. 58. Goncalves F. 46. Junior M. 79. Marques R. 51. Pinto D. (G) 82. Silva G. 95. Taibo Dominguez L.	99. Bright 9. Cardoso F. 6. Daniel Alves 80. Dinho 65. Figueiredo D. (G) 8. Helder Pedro 42. Iroanya E. 18. Okoli F. 7. Sousa C.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
19', Zakari B. 🟨,
34', 1 - 0, Besugo R. ⚽,
40', Arreiol H. 🟨,
44', Silva J. ↓, Anjos L. ↑,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
58', Filipe R. ↓, Helder Pedro ↑,
58', Filipe J. ↓, Iroanya E. ↑,
61', 2 - 0, Moreira A. ⚽,
65', Cardoso F. 🟨,
66', 🟨,
80', 🟨,

Preview

A leader and an outsider will face off in this match (ranked 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga Portugal 2 and 7).

Sporting B is currently in amazing form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Amarante is currently in poor form (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

In this match, Sporting B is seen as the favorite.

We predict that Sporting B will win today's game, with odds of 1.55.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Sporting B won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 1:0.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Sporting Lisbon B
Portuguese Liga 3
10.05.25	Fafe - Sporting Lisbon B	1:2 ✺
04.05.25	Sporting Lisbon B - Varzim	2:0 ✺
26.04.25	1 Dezembro - Sporting Lisbon B	1:1 ✺
20.04.25	Belenenses - Sporting Lisbon B	1:1 ✺
13.04.25	Sporting Lisbon B - Atlético CP	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 18.1 WWTTW
- Amarante FC
Portuguese Liga 3
10.05.25	Amarante - Belenenses	1:4 ✺
03.05.25	Atlético CP - Amarante	3:1 ✺
26.04.25	Amarante - Lusitânia	1:1 ✺
19.04.25	Amarante - 1 Dezembro	1:1 ✺
13.04.25	Fafe - Amarante	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.4 LLTTT

Latest Head to Head

Portuguese Liga 3
30.03.25	Amarante - Sporting Lisbon B	0:1

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